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Gronkowski trade brings bets on Buccaneers’ Super Bowl odds

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Rob Gronkowski engineered a trade to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, giving a jolt to the team’s Super Bowl odds as well as its odds to win the NFC Championship, as the gregarious tight end reunited with quarterback Tom Brady.

The news broke late Tuesday afternoon after the New England Patriots agreed to the deal, following Gronk’s one-year sabbatical, and instantly drew action on Tampa Bay’s NFL betting odds. Sportsbooks across the country quickly adjusting their NFL futures for the 2020 season.

Bucs’ Super Bowl odds

BetMGM made the biggest leap on the Gronkowski trade, with the Bucs going from 16/1 to 9/1 to win the Super Bowl, which coincidentally will be played in Tampa, Florida, on February 7, 2021. Tampa Bay trails only the Chiefs (+650) and Ravens (+700), while the 49ers are also at 9/1 at BetMGM.

“That’s an added weapon, and someone who has familiarity with Brady,” MGM Resorts sportsbooks director of trading Jeff Stoneback told Covers. “He brings a lot to the team, and obviously betting interest was already up on the Bucs with Brady. It amplifies that team quite a bit. Right now, we’re only open on the mobile app in Nevada. If the books were open for business as normal, I’m sure we’d have a flood of money the next couple weeks, and even up until the season starts.”

Even with limited capability, though, oddsmakers had the Bucs on the move. Jeff Davis, director of trading for Caesars sportsbooks, initially held Tampa Bay at 17/1 to win the Super Bowl, but quickly shifted to 14/1.

“I was going to leave Super Bowl at 17/1, but we took a bet on it almost immediately,” Davis said.

The Chiefs are the No. 1 choice at Caesars, with 4/1 odds to repeat as champions, followed by the 49ers (7/1), Ravens (8/1) and Cowboys (11/1). The Saints and Seahawks joined the Bucs at 14/1.

Buccaneers’ Super Bowl Odds Moves

Sportsbook Pre-Gronkowski Trade Odds Post-Gronkowski Trade Odds
BetMGM 16/1 9/1
Caesars 17/1 14/1
Circa Sports 15/1 11/1
DraftKings 14/1 12/1
PointsBet USA 16/1 14/1
FanDuel 17/1 12/1

 

NFC Championship Odds

Caesars books were a quick mover here, as well, but with a modest shift on the Buccaneers from 8/1 to 7/1 to win the NFC title. As with Super Bowl odds, BetMGM made a stronger move on Tampa Bay’s NFC championship odds, from 8/1 to +475.

Once the shutdown lifts and sportsbooks return to full operations – retail and mobile – Stoneback expects the Bucs to continue garnering plenty of public betting interest. In fact, he drew a parallel to the NFL’s previous public flavor of the day.

“This kind of compares to the scenario last year with the Cleveland Browns,” he said. “They picked up Odell Beckham Jr., Baker Mayfield was going into his second year, and the Browns were a team that everybody was excited about.”

While the Browns fizzled, though, going 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS, Stoneback believes there’ll be a lot more bang with the Bucs.

“Brady-Gronkowski is a proven combination. They have that history between them, and you know they can click,” Stoneback said, alluding to the 90 touchdown passes Brady threw to Gronk over nine seasons in New England. “From this point on, I’d be shocked if the Buccaneers weren’t No. 1 in most tickets written to win the Super Bowl and the NFC.”

Buccaneers’ NFC Championship Odds Moves

Sportsbook Pre-Gronkowski Trade Odds Post-Gronkowski Trade Odds
BetMGM 8/1 +475
Caesars 8/1 7/1
Circa Sports 7/1 5/1
DraftKings +750 +650

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

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It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)