NFL Draft betting is a strange market to handicap when compared to the NFL action on the field. That just means you need a sharp betting strategy when it comes to navigating all the mock drafts and getting the best of the NFL Draft props.
Here are some simple tips for betting the NFL Draft odds.
Tip No. 1: Inside info
Social media is your biggest weapon against the books when finding an edge in the NFL Draft props. Twitter is a firehouse of information, with about a million mock drafts filling your feed in the weeks before the draft.
You’ll want to trim some of the fat and really find the voices that could give you that golden nugget of NFL news – actionable information that you can bank on when placing a bet on the NFL Draft.
Reporters like Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, and Adam Schefter and Josina Anderson of ESPN are must-follows in the months and weeks leading up to the draft. Local beat reporters are also a terrific source of news and rumors, specifically when it comes to team needs and front-office rumblings.
Tip No. 2: Mind the mock drafts
Mock drafts and opinions: everybody’s got’em. You used to only have a handful of mainstream options in terms of projected draft selections. But with the boom in fantasy football over the past decade, there has been a monsoon of mock drafts available to NFL bettors.
The best advice is to avoid treating mock drafts as the gospel and use them more as a comparison tool when searching for value in the NFL Draft props. They’re very handy when it comes to position props – such as “How many quarterbacks will be selected in first round?” – because you can weigh the opinion of multiple draft analyst against the betting odds and find your edge.
If you’re looking to bookmark some of the best NFL mock drafts, experts like Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football and Evan Silva of Establish The Run have some proven success when it comes to predicting the NFL Draft selection order.
Tip No. 3: Bet early/Bet late
Odds for the NFL Draft are hitting the board earlier and earlier every year. For sportsbooks, draft betting is primarily a sharp market with more action from professionals than the general public.
That means those initial odds offerings get bet as soon as they’re posted and bookmakers move the lines quickly off that sharp money. Following those steam moves is a solid ploy for those looking to get the best of the number and tail the opinion of the wiseguys. Just make sure you’re not too late to the party and all the value is dried up.
If you don’t jump on the early line moves, then it’s best to wait until closer to draft day as any late news and rumors coming out tend to hold more water than whispers from weeks out. In most cases, when a team’s pick or plan is leaked, it’s a race to the window for sports bettors trying to action that info before the bookies adjust.
That said, sportsbooks in Nevada must close their NFL Draft book the day before the draft to limit the risk of any late breaking news influencing the odds and action. So make sure you know the rules around betting the NFL Draft at your particular sportsbook.
Tip No. 4: Shop around
You’ll find a lot of the standard NFL Draft props at most books, like “Which player will go first overall?” and Over/Under pick props on the big-name prospects. However, the odds board varies from book to book in terms of options and prices.
If you’re able to bet with multiple sportsbooks, make sure you shop around and get the best possible return for your opinions. The vig/juice could be significantly different on certain props or a book could off a variation of a prop that benefits the bettors, with less risk or a larger payout. Some online sportsbook will also offer live betting during the NFL Draft, if you’re looking to react to the market pick-to-pick.