NFL Draft betting: Tips for winning wagers

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NFL Draft betting is a strange market to handicap when compared to the NFL action on the field. That just means you need a sharp betting strategy when it comes to navigating all the mock drafts and getting the best of the NFL Draft props.

Here are some simple tips for betting the NFL Draft odds.

Tip No. 1: Inside info

Social media is your biggest weapon against the books when finding an edge in the NFL Draft props. Twitter is a firehouse of information, with about a million mock drafts filling your feed in the weeks before the draft.

You’ll want to trim some of the fat and really find the voices that could give you that golden nugget of NFL news – actionable information that you can bank on when placing a bet on the NFL Draft.

Reporters like Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, and Adam Schefter and Josina Anderson of ESPN are must-follows in the months and weeks leading up to the draft. Local beat reporters are also a terrific source of news and rumors, specifically when it comes to team needs and front-office rumblings.

Tip No. 2: Mind the mock drafts

Mock drafts and opinions: everybody’s got’em. You used to only have a handful of mainstream options in terms of projected draft selections. But with the boom in fantasy football over the past decade, there has been a monsoon of mock drafts available to NFL bettors.

The best advice is to avoid treating mock drafts as the gospel and use them more as a comparison tool when searching for value in the NFL Draft props. They’re very handy when it comes to position props – such as “How many quarterbacks will be selected in first round?” – because you can weigh the opinion of multiple draft analyst against the betting odds and find your edge.

If you’re looking to bookmark some of the best NFL mock drafts, experts like Walter Cherepinsky of Walter Football and Evan Silva of Establish The Run have some proven success when it comes to predicting the NFL Draft selection order.

Tip No. 3: Bet early/Bet late

Odds for the NFL Draft are hitting the board earlier and earlier every year. For sportsbooks, draft betting is primarily a sharp market with more action from professionals than the general public.

That means those initial odds offerings get bet as soon as they’re posted and bookmakers move the lines quickly off that sharp money. Following those steam moves is a solid ploy for those looking to get the best of the number and tail the opinion of the wiseguys. Just make sure you’re not too late to the party and all the value is dried up.

If you don’t jump on the early line moves, then it’s best to wait until closer to draft day as any late news and rumors coming out tend to hold more water than whispers from weeks out. In most cases, when a team’s pick or plan is leaked, it’s a race to the window for sports bettors trying to action that info before the bookies adjust.

That said, sportsbooks in Nevada must close their NFL Draft book the day before the draft to limit the risk of any late breaking news influencing the odds and action. So make sure you know the rules around betting the NFL Draft at your particular sportsbook.

Tip No. 4: Shop around

You’ll find a lot of the standard NFL Draft props at most books, like “Which player will go first overall?” and Over/Under pick props on the big-name prospects. However, the odds board varies from book to book in terms of options and prices.

If you’re able to bet with multiple sportsbooks, make sure you shop around and get the best possible return for your opinions. The vig/juice could be significantly different on certain props or a book could off a variation of a prop that benefits the bettors, with less risk or a larger payout. Some online sportsbook will also offer live betting during the NFL Draft, if you’re looking to react to the market pick-to-pick.

 

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

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It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)