2020 NFL Draft odds and proposition bets

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Most sports events have been cancelled indefinitely but the 2020 NFL Draft will go on as scheduled on April 23 with barely a hiccup, moving from Las Vegas to a studio setting.

Sportsbooks have put up a massive amount of NFL draft propositions bets on the board and we bring you some of the more intriguing odds being offered.

You can bet on where highly-regarded prospects like Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Chase Young will be drafted, how many players at a position will be selected in the first round and who will be the first player drafted at various positions.

Books are so confident at this point that reigning Heisman Trophy winner and National Champion Joe Burrow will be the first selection in the draft, that you can bet on “Joe Burrow is not the first overall pick” at a whopping +1,900.

After that there is a lot less certainty which means tons of betting value even if you’re leaning towards the favorite.

ODDS FOR THE NUMBER ONE OVERALL DRAFT PICK

Player Odds
Joe Burrow -2,500
Chase Young +1,400
Tua Tagovailoa +1,600
Justin Herbert +2,800
Anybody Else +2,800

WHEN IS TUA TAGOVAILOA PICKED?

Selection Odds
2nd Overall Selection +375
3rd Overall Selection +150
4th Overall Selection +800
5th Overall Selection +200
6th Overall Selection +800
Any other pick +600

TEAM TO DRAFT CHASE YOUNG

Team Odds
Washington Redskins -300
Detroit Lions +250
New York Giants +900
Cincinnati Bengals +1,500
Miami Dolphins +1,500
Anyone Else +1,000

3RD OVERALL PICK

Player Odds
Jeff Okudah +145
Tua Tagovailoa +150
Chase Young +375
Isaiah Simmons +700
Derrick Brown +1,200
Anyone Else +850

FIRST WIDE RECEIVER DRAFTED

Player Odds
Jerry Jeudy -150
Ceedee Lamb +120
Henry Ruggs +575
Tee Higgins +3,300
Justin Jefferson +5,000
Denzel Mims +5,000
Anybody Else +1,800

FIRST OFFENSIVE LINEMAN DRAFTED

Player Odds
Jedrick Wills +140
Tristan Wirfs +175
Mekhi Becton +290
Andrew Thomas +450
Josh Jones +3,300

TOTAL PLAYERS AT A PARTICULAR POSITION DRAFTED IN FIRST ROUND

Position Over Under
Total Quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 4.5 (+260) 4.5 (-425)
Total Wide Receivers drafted in Round 1 5.5 (-120) 5.5 (-120)
Total Running Backs drafted in Round 1 1.5 (+310) 1.5 (-525)
Total offensive linemen drafted in Round 1 6.5 (+108) 6.5 (-142)
Total cornerbacks drafted in Round 1 3.5 (-250) 3.5 (+188)
Total safeties drafted in Round 1 1.5 (-102) 1.5 (-124)

PLAYER DRAFT POSITIONS

You can wager on specific players and whether or not you think they will get drafted either before or after a particular draft position. If you bet the Over you are wagering on whether or not they will be drafted later than the number given, and if you bet the Under you are banking on them being drafted earlier.

Player Over/Under on Draft Position (-120 unless stated otherwise)
Jeff Okudah 3.5 (Over -140)
Tua Tagavoilia 4.5
Justin Herbert 6
Isaiah Simmons 6.5
Mekhi Becton 6.5
Derrick Brown 8.5
Tristan Whirfs 8.5
Jedrick Wills 9.5 (Over -140)
Jerry Jeudy 12.5 (Under -140)
Andrew Thomas 12.5 (Over -130)
Jordan Love 12.5 (Over -140)
CeeDee Lamb 12.5 (Over -140)
Javon Kinlaw 13.5
K’Lavon Chaisson 15.5
C.J. Henderson 17.5 (Under -135)
Henry Ruggs 17.5
Xavier McKinney 18.5
Justin Jefferson 21.5
Patrick Queen 23.5
A.J. Epenesa 24.5
Kenneth Murray 25.5
Kristian Fulton 26.5
Yetur Gross-Matos 26.5
D’Andre Swift 27.5
Zach Baun 27.5
Josh Jones 27.5
Tee Higgins 28.5
Grant Delpitt 31.5
Ross Blacklock 31.5
Jonathan Taylor 36.5

Longshots to consider when betting the Shoemaker Mile

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Monday’s Shoemaker Miles Stakes at Santa Anita Park is a great race for a number of reasons. For starters, the Shoemaker Mile is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race that offers the winner a guaranteed spot in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland.

Watch the Shoemaker Mile on Monday, May 25 from 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.

The race also features last year’s Preakness Stakes winner, War of Will, making his season debut. Despite his triumphs on the dirt in 2019, War of Will started his career on the turf and his pedigree suggests that he’s very likely to be just as successful on the grass. That said, the Shoemaker Mile will be his first start off of a six-month break, and I’m going to try to take a swing or two with some horses who could upset the apple cart at longer odds.

Let’s start out with the horse on the rail, Without Parole. He won the Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes going a mile at Ascot back in 2018. His three other career wins have all came at this mile distance as well. Granted, he hasn’t won in six races since the St. James’s Palace but he did finish a fast-closing third two starts ago in a much tougher U.S. debut in the TVG Breeders’ Cup MileIrad Ortiz Jr. rode Without Parole in that race and he will reclaim the mount on him again on Monday.

Without Parole has only had one race this year and it was in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational in which he finished second to last. However, he had several excuses right from the start of that race when he got squeezed coming out of the gate. He also raced in traffic throughout and got cut off several times in the stretch before Frankie Dettori — who had come from Europe to ride him at Gulfstream — finally just wrapped up on him. The Pegasus World Cup Turf also was a race that didn’t allow him to run on Lasix (furosemide) after he’d shown significant improvement racing on Lasix for the first time at the Breeders’ Cup.

Stream the 2020 Shoemaker Mile live here

How much of a factor might Lasix be for some horses? Well, let’s next look at the horse who finished last in the Pegasus World Cup Turf: Next Shares. In his following start (back on Lasix) in the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes, Next Shares finished third (beaten just a neck) to River Boyne. Both Next Shares and River Boyne return in the Shoemaker Mile and I prefer the former as a pace play who has plenty of back-class. If you rewatch the Kilroe Mile, Next Shares covered a lot more ground than River Boyne. With a similar effort, Next Shares could certainly turn the tables.

The other thing to like about Next Shares is that his trainer, Richard Baltas, has entered speedster Neptune’s Storm in the Shoemaker Mile. That horse, along with Voodoo Song, should ensure a very brisk pace up front — they’ll also be kept honest by Blitzkrieg and War of Will, both of whom usually race on or near the lead. All of that speed adds up to good news for Next Shares. He’s a Grade 1 winner who has always done his best running when he’s had some pace to run into. The other two keys for him (like all stalking or closing-type runners) is clear running room late, and hopefully he’ll get that with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez taking the mount.

Lastly, we should take a look at True Valour. It’s hard to make much of an excuse for his flat finish in the Kilroe last out, but he’s truly performed better than what his results on paper might indicate. In the Thunder Road Stakes in February, he looked pretty keen early and it took him a few strides to settle down without throwing his head around and fighting his rider. Turning for home, it was clear that jockey Andrea Atzeni had plenty of horse under him but was just waiting for some running room. It ended up coming too late because River Boyne was in a better spot and had already taken command. True Valour did split horses nicely in the closing stages and was half a jump away from finishing second.

If you go back to the Breeders’ Cup Mile, True Valour had excuses there, too. He was up on heels early and he again took a little bit of time to settle down into a comfortable stride. Then, turning for him, he was just waiting for running room but instead got stuck behind a wall of horses. True Valour ended up steadying pretty badly and lost all chance at that point. I’m a little worried about how headstrong he tends to be early in races, but there’s a scenario here that could have at least two horses battling for the lead early and opening up some daylight on the rest of the field. That means he’ll be less likely to be running up on anyone’s heels and it also ensures that he’ll have a nice setup. Whether he can navigate clear passage late in the race is a separate matter.

Longshot Selections

#1 Without Parole

#3 Next Shares

#2 True Valour

Watch the Shoemaker Mile on Monday, May 25 from 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.

How to bet an exacta on a horse race

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Betting an exacta can present a challenge on several levels.

There is, of course, the primary need to analyze past performances and decide which horses are going to finish first and second.

Yet because of the inherently lower payoffs as opposed to what you’ll find in a Pick 3 or Pick 4, you’ll need to structure your wagers effectively in order to turn your selections into a profitable wager.

For starters, an exacta can be a simple wager. If you like two horses equally, you can just box them in the exacta and collect so long as they finish 1-2 in any order. If you like one of them a little more, you can then bet more on the one you prefer, say $10 on a 1-2 exacta and $5 on 2-1.

If you’re a little more uncertain, make sure you structure your bet around the size of the field and the probable payoffs.

If you like a longshot, the higher probable payoffs give you the cushion you need to wager on more combinations and still turn a nice profit.

But if you’re dealing with favorites or horses at relatively low odds, you have to wager more efficiently to preserve your profit.

In a field of six or less, you’re best to either focus on one horse or box two of them instead of boxing three or more horses because of the small payouts the bet will most likely generate.

In a field of seven, a wise strategy would be to box your top two choices and then, if you are worried about other horses, play them top and/or bottom other the other horses. For example, box 1-2, then bet 1-2 over 3-4 and 3-4 over 1-2. This way you are getting coverage on four horses without having to box them.

Once you get an eight-horse field, as long as there is not an overwhelming favorite, you can expand the number of horses you box since the payoffs will typically be higher, giving you a better opportunity to offset the inevitable array of losing tickets in a boxed wager.