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NCAA basketball betting futures odds: Books rooting against Florida State, for Duke or Baylor

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OK folks, with conference tournaments starting Tuesday, it’s a good time to check in on national championship futures odds in NCAA basketball betting. Covers finds out which teams are trouble and which are terrific for bookmakers, with college basketball insights from Alan Berg, senior oddsmaker at Caesars sportsbooks, and Matt Chaprales, head of content at PointsBet USA.

 

BAD FOR THE BOOKS

First off, let’s clarify by noting that the baseline for this article is teams that are solid NCAA Tournament units. Sure, there’s a good chance that Vermont – out of the America East Conference – will be dancing in a couple weeks’ time. And there might be significant NCAA title liability on the Catamounts; at 350/1, a book’s burden can build off just a few bets.

But there’s a reason Vermont is 350/1. So, with that clarification made, Berg and Chaprales each pointed to three teams that present issues for their respective books, with Florida State topping the list at Caesars’ operations – in Vegas and across the country – and at PointsBet in New Jersey.

Although the Seminoles fell short Saturday at Clemson, they’re a rock-solid 24-5 SU and beat Louisville by 15 last week. The ‘Noles opened 50/1 at Caesars, stretched as far as 100/1, but are now 18/1. PointsBet opened Florida State at 50/1 and is currently at 16/1.

“We took $5,000 on Florida State at 25/1, so that bet alone represents a six-figure liability,” Chaprales said. “Dayton is obviously the biggest mover from the preseason, while Kentucky has generated some recent interest, which is a combination of an increasingly attractive price point and the Wildcats’ perennial public status.”

Dayton is arguably the biggest surprise of the season. The Flyers, ranked third and on an 18-game win streak, opened as a 250/1 long shot at PointsBet, dropped to 50/1 by December 1, 20/1 by Feb. 1 and are now 12/1. Kentucky’s tightest point was actually its opener, +850, and the Wildcats reached 22/1 on Feb. 1 before rebounding to 15/1.

Back at Caesars, San Diego State opened 100/1, its longest odds, and is now 15/1. Michigan also creates significant liability, opening 20/1, sliding to 100/1, but now sitting at 30/1.
Interestingly, Dayton (27-2 SU) is not an issue for Caesars, despite an opening price of 200/1 and current odds of 12/1.

“Dayton is a small winner for us,” Berg told Covers on Friday.

 

NCAA Basketball Futures Odds – Caesars Sportsbooks

TEAM OPENING ODDS LONGEST ODDS CURRENT ODDS
Florida State 50/1 100/1 18/1
San Diego State 100/1 100/1 15/1
Michigan 20/1 100/1 30/1

 

 

BOON FOR THE BOOKS

Joining Dayton in the “Interestingly Enough” category at Caesars books is Baylor, ranked No. 1 for a few weeks before a Feb. 22 home loss to Kansas. Despite opening at 500/1 and now sitting 9/1, the Bears having their one shining moment would be the best outcome for Berg and the rest of Caesars’ risk team.

Likewise at PointsBet, although Baylor represents the third-best outcome, after opening at 30/1 – note: Caesars had Baylor posted in the futures book much earlier than PointsBet – expanding to 40/1 by Dec. 1 and currently sitting at +950.

Duke is the best outcome for PointsBet and the second-best for Caesars, although of course the Blue Devils’ odds have been reasonably short all along. PointsBet opened Duke 9/1, never got longer than 11/1 and is at 10/1 now, while Caesars opened 10/1, reached 16/1 and currently sits 13/1.

Gonzaga is PointsBet’s second-best outcome, going from a 20/1 opener to 8/1 Feb. 1. The Bulldogs are currently +850.

“No real surprise here,” Chaprales said. “After Kansas, these teams (Duke/Gonzaga/Baylor) have the shortest odds, so not a ton of appeal to public bettors.”

Louisville is a very good result at Caesars, too, opening 15/1, stretching to 30/1, then back to 18/1.

 

NCAA Basketball Futures Odds – PointsBet USA

TEAMS OPENING ODDS LONGEST ODDS CURRENT ODDS
Duke +950 11/1 10/1
Gonzaga 20/1 20/1 +850
Baylor 30/1 40/1 +950

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

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It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)