Tom Brady betting odds: Which team will the GOAT play for in NFL 2020?

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Tom Brady wearing anything but the Patriots’ blue and red is going to look weird. That’s the reality we’re living in with the future Hall of Fame quarterback reportedly testing the free agent market and sportsbooks releasing odds on Tom Brady’s 2020 NFL team.

That NFL odds market had gasoline thrown on its flames Thursday when NFL reporters stated that multiple sources close to the situation feel like Brady won’t be back in New England – despite the Patriots pegged as a -400 favorites to claim Brady as their QB this upcoming NFL season.

But what if those reports are true? We take a look at the four favorites in the Tom Brady betting odds and which team would be the best fit for TB12.

NFL ODDS TO SIGN TOM BRADY

TAKES A SNAP WITH IN WEEK 1 ODDS ( VIA LV SUPERBOOK)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -400
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +600
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +600
TENNESSEE TITANS +1,000
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +2,500
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +4,000
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +5,000
DALLAS COWBOYS +5,000
CHICAGO BEARS +5,000
MIAMI DOLPHINS +6,000
CAROLINA PANTHERS +6,000
DENVER BRONCOS +6,000
DETROIT LIONS +10,000
LOS ANGELES RAMS +10,000
ATLANTA FALCONS +10,000
CLEVELAND BROWNS +10,000
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +10,000
NEW YORK GIANTS +30,000
NEW YORK JETS +30,000
BUFFALO BILLS +30,000
ARIZONA CARDINALS +30,000
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +30,000
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +30,000
HOUSTON TEXANS +30,000
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +30,000
WASHINGTON REDSKINS +50,000
CINCINNATI BENGALS +50,000
MINNESOTA VIKINGS +50,000
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +100,000
GREEN BAY PACKERS +100,000
BALTIMORE RAVENS +100,000
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +100,000
DOESN’T PLAY IN WEEK 1 +10,000

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (ODDS TO SIGN BRADY +600)

Brady swaps one scowling head coach for another in the Silver and Black’s inaugural season in the Silver State. The rumors around his potential 2020 team includes his reps meeting with the Raiders, who would then quit on current QB Derek Carr – despite Jon Gruden recently saying the team is anxious to build around Carr. But this is Tom Brady we’re talking about here.

Brady would join an offense that ranked eight in passing yards in 2019 but in the bottom half of the league in passing touchdowns. Brady would also be counted on to bail out a defense that allowed over 26 points per game and finished 19th in yards allowed.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (ODDS TO SIGN BRADY +600)

The Bolts gave Philip Rivers the bum’s rush, leaving the door open for a new quarterback in 2020. That instantly makes this fit much better for Brady than Las Vegas. The Chargers have the framework to be a very good team – ranked Top 10 in both offense and defense yardage – but just needed a winner at the wheel after suffering through far too many late-game collapses and bad beats.

And then there’s the lure of La-La Land. It got Gretzky and LeBron and with Gisele as the real breadwinner in the Brady household, it makes sense to move both brands to California. And Tom wouldn’t have to play out the twilight of his career in those cold Boston winters. Bonus.

TENNESSEE TITANS (ODDS TO SIGN BRADY +1,000)

Former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel caught 10 balls for 10 touchdowns during his NFL career, all coming from the arm of Brady. Those surprise attacks could’ve paved the road for another stunner, bringing Brady to the Music City where Vrabel is head coach of the Titans, who knocked Brady & Co. out of the postseason this past January.

Tennessee proved how potent its offense could be in the second half of 2019, and that was with Ryan Tannehill making the throws. The Titans are very much a “Patriots South” in their makeup and the culture would replicate that found in Belichick’s locker room. At 10/1, Tennessee is a very live underdog to land Brady this offseason.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (ODDS TO SIGN BRADY +2,500)

After all those amazing showdowns with Peyton Manning and the Colts over the years, it would feel like bitter betrayal to New England fans if Brady donned the horseshoe. Maybe those “Massholes” should have thought about that before burning Tom’s jersey after the playoff loss. Indianapolis is another team set up perfectly for Brady to push them over the top.

Andrew Luck had Indy on the brink of greatness before suddenly retiring ahead of the 2019 season, leaving the Colts to count on former Pats passer Jacoby Brissett, who flopped in the second half of the season. Indianapolis has a talented receiving corps and would be right back in the playoff mix if Brady was under center.

Longshots to consider when betting the Shoemaker Mile

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Monday’s Shoemaker Miles Stakes at Santa Anita Park is a great race for a number of reasons. For starters, the Shoemaker Mile is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race that offers the winner a guaranteed spot in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland.

Watch the Shoemaker Mile on Monday, May 25 from 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.

The race also features last year’s Preakness Stakes winner, War of Will, making his season debut. Despite his triumphs on the dirt in 2019, War of Will started his career on the turf and his pedigree suggests that he’s very likely to be just as successful on the grass. That said, the Shoemaker Mile will be his first start off of a six-month break, and I’m going to try to take a swing or two with some horses who could upset the apple cart at longer odds.

Let’s start out with the horse on the rail, Without Parole. He won the Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes going a mile at Ascot back in 2018. His three other career wins have all came at this mile distance as well. Granted, he hasn’t won in six races since the St. James’s Palace but he did finish a fast-closing third two starts ago in a much tougher U.S. debut in the TVG Breeders’ Cup MileIrad Ortiz Jr. rode Without Parole in that race and he will reclaim the mount on him again on Monday.

Without Parole has only had one race this year and it was in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational in which he finished second to last. However, he had several excuses right from the start of that race when he got squeezed coming out of the gate. He also raced in traffic throughout and got cut off several times in the stretch before Frankie Dettori — who had come from Europe to ride him at Gulfstream — finally just wrapped up on him. The Pegasus World Cup Turf also was a race that didn’t allow him to run on Lasix (furosemide) after he’d shown significant improvement racing on Lasix for the first time at the Breeders’ Cup.

Stream the 2020 Shoemaker Mile live here

How much of a factor might Lasix be for some horses? Well, let’s next look at the horse who finished last in the Pegasus World Cup Turf: Next Shares. In his following start (back on Lasix) in the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes, Next Shares finished third (beaten just a neck) to River Boyne. Both Next Shares and River Boyne return in the Shoemaker Mile and I prefer the former as a pace play who has plenty of back-class. If you rewatch the Kilroe Mile, Next Shares covered a lot more ground than River Boyne. With a similar effort, Next Shares could certainly turn the tables.

The other thing to like about Next Shares is that his trainer, Richard Baltas, has entered speedster Neptune’s Storm in the Shoemaker Mile. That horse, along with Voodoo Song, should ensure a very brisk pace up front — they’ll also be kept honest by Blitzkrieg and War of Will, both of whom usually race on or near the lead. All of that speed adds up to good news for Next Shares. He’s a Grade 1 winner who has always done his best running when he’s had some pace to run into. The other two keys for him (like all stalking or closing-type runners) is clear running room late, and hopefully he’ll get that with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez taking the mount.

Lastly, we should take a look at True Valour. It’s hard to make much of an excuse for his flat finish in the Kilroe last out, but he’s truly performed better than what his results on paper might indicate. In the Thunder Road Stakes in February, he looked pretty keen early and it took him a few strides to settle down without throwing his head around and fighting his rider. Turning for home, it was clear that jockey Andrea Atzeni had plenty of horse under him but was just waiting for some running room. It ended up coming too late because River Boyne was in a better spot and had already taken command. True Valour did split horses nicely in the closing stages and was half a jump away from finishing second.

If you go back to the Breeders’ Cup Mile, True Valour had excuses there, too. He was up on heels early and he again took a little bit of time to settle down into a comfortable stride. Then, turning for him, he was just waiting for running room but instead got stuck behind a wall of horses. True Valour ended up steadying pretty badly and lost all chance at that point. I’m a little worried about how headstrong he tends to be early in races, but there’s a scenario here that could have at least two horses battling for the lead early and opening up some daylight on the rest of the field. That means he’ll be less likely to be running up on anyone’s heels and it also ensures that he’ll have a nice setup. Whether he can navigate clear passage late in the race is a separate matter.

Longshot Selections

#1 Without Parole

#3 Next Shares

#2 True Valour

Watch the Shoemaker Mile on Monday, May 25 from 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.

How to bet an exacta on a horse race

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Betting an exacta can present a challenge on several levels.

There is, of course, the primary need to analyze past performances and decide which horses are going to finish first and second.

Yet because of the inherently lower payoffs as opposed to what you’ll find in a Pick 3 or Pick 4, you’ll need to structure your wagers effectively in order to turn your selections into a profitable wager.

For starters, an exacta can be a simple wager. If you like two horses equally, you can just box them in the exacta and collect so long as they finish 1-2 in any order. If you like one of them a little more, you can then bet more on the one you prefer, say $10 on a 1-2 exacta and $5 on 2-1.

If you’re a little more uncertain, make sure you structure your bet around the size of the field and the probable payoffs.

If you like a longshot, the higher probable payoffs give you the cushion you need to wager on more combinations and still turn a nice profit.

But if you’re dealing with favorites or horses at relatively low odds, you have to wager more efficiently to preserve your profit.

In a field of six or less, you’re best to either focus on one horse or box two of them instead of boxing three or more horses because of the small payouts the bet will most likely generate.

In a field of seven, a wise strategy would be to box your top two choices and then, if you are worried about other horses, play them top and/or bottom other the other horses. For example, box 1-2, then bet 1-2 over 3-4 and 3-4 over 1-2. This way you are getting coverage on four horses without having to box them.

Once you get an eight-horse field, as long as there is not an overwhelming favorite, you can expand the number of horses you box since the payoffs will typically be higher, giving you a better opportunity to offset the inevitable array of losing tickets in a boxed wager.