AP Photo

Stars vs Bruins NHL betting picks and predictions: Boston to bounce back in big way

Leave a comment

The Bruins will try to halt a two-game skid and are home favorites over the Stars on Thursday night as Dallas looks for its second straight win on the road.

We build the blueprint for betting this marquee matchup on the NHL odds board, from our favorite bets for the side and total to some quick-paying picks and prop plays.

DALLAS STARS AT BOSTON BRUINS

 

QUICK HITTER

After a wicked stretch that included 12 wins in 13 games, the Bruins are learning how the other half lives with losses in two straight. Monday’s 5-2 home setback against the Flames was particularly disappointing for bettors who laid -200 on the moneyline with Boston.

Dallas comes in having won seven of nine after a 4-1 road victory over Carolina on Tuesday. The Stars have struggled early in games this season and have scored just 47 goals in the first period, fourth-fewest in the NHL. Expect the Bruins to regain their form on the back end after allowing 14 goals in the last two games. Despite that recent defensive lapse, the first-period Under is still 9-1 in the last 10 games for Boston.

Pick: 1st Period Under 1.5 (-132)

PERIOD BET

After a dismal 1-7-1 start to the season, the Stars have pulled to within four points of the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues for first place in the Central Division. Dallas is riding high and has registered at least a point in eight straight road games, but they are going up against a Bruins defense that has allowed the second-fewest second-period goals in the NHL this season.

Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy had few kind words to offer up about his team after Monday’s loss to Calgary except the stellar play of the fourth line. Expect Sean Kuraly, Par Lindholm, and Chris Wagner to put pressure on the Stars and see some extended run in the period of the long change.

Pick: Bruins Second Period Three-Way Moneyline (+130)

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

This is a homecoming game for Tyler Seguin, who was the Bruins’ first-round pick back in 2010. Seguin spent the first three seasons of his career in Boston and has scored four goals at TD Garden against his former team including a hat trick in the 2015-16 season. Seguin has goals in back-to-back games and will be highly motivated to get on the scoresheet in some way against the team who drafted him.

Pick: Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 Points (-114)

FULL GAME TOTAL

This appears to be a bad matchup for the Dallas offense. Despite some recent struggles, Boston has one of the best back lines in the NHL and the Stars are ranked 25th in scoring. Tuuka Rask has allowed 10 goals in his last two games breaking a string of 11 straight starts allowing two goals or fewer. He made 28 saves and allowed just one goal in a 2-1 victory in Dallas earlier this season. The Under has hit in two straight for the Stars as they have held their opponents to just one goal in both games.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-140)

FULL GAME SIDE

Ben Bishop struggled in his last start between the pipes for Dallas, allowing four goals on just 13 shots in a blowout loss to the Blues. He hasn’t started a game at TD Garden since the 2016-17 season as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning allowing four goals on 30 shots in a 4-1 Bruins win.

With adversity knocking after two straight setbacks, expect veterans like Brad Marchand to step up for the Bruins. Marchand has recorded a point in seven straight games as the first line for Boston has been stellar all season. He also has eight goals and 17 points in 14 career games against Dallas. Expect the Bruins to bounce back as Bishop is shaky in net.

Pick: Bruins -1.5 (+160)

Longshots to consider when betting the Shoemaker Mile

Leave a comment

Monday’s Shoemaker Miles Stakes at Santa Anita Park is a great race for a number of reasons. For starters, the Shoemaker Mile is a Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series “Win and You’re In” race that offers the winner a guaranteed spot in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland.

Watch the Shoemaker Mile on Monday, May 25 from 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.

The race also features last year’s Preakness Stakes winner, War of Will, making his season debut. Despite his triumphs on the dirt in 2019, War of Will started his career on the turf and his pedigree suggests that he’s very likely to be just as successful on the grass. That said, the Shoemaker Mile will be his first start off of a six-month break, and I’m going to try to take a swing or two with some horses who could upset the apple cart at longer odds.

Let’s start out with the horse on the rail, Without Parole. He won the Group 1 St. James’s Palace Stakes going a mile at Ascot back in 2018. His three other career wins have all came at this mile distance as well. Granted, he hasn’t won in six races since the St. James’s Palace but he did finish a fast-closing third two starts ago in a much tougher U.S. debut in the TVG Breeders’ Cup MileIrad Ortiz Jr. rode Without Parole in that race and he will reclaim the mount on him again on Monday.

Without Parole has only had one race this year and it was in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational in which he finished second to last. However, he had several excuses right from the start of that race when he got squeezed coming out of the gate. He also raced in traffic throughout and got cut off several times in the stretch before Frankie Dettori — who had come from Europe to ride him at Gulfstream — finally just wrapped up on him. The Pegasus World Cup Turf also was a race that didn’t allow him to run on Lasix (furosemide) after he’d shown significant improvement racing on Lasix for the first time at the Breeders’ Cup.

Stream the 2020 Shoemaker Mile live here

How much of a factor might Lasix be for some horses? Well, let’s next look at the horse who finished last in the Pegasus World Cup Turf: Next Shares. In his following start (back on Lasix) in the Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile Stakes, Next Shares finished third (beaten just a neck) to River Boyne. Both Next Shares and River Boyne return in the Shoemaker Mile and I prefer the former as a pace play who has plenty of back-class. If you rewatch the Kilroe Mile, Next Shares covered a lot more ground than River Boyne. With a similar effort, Next Shares could certainly turn the tables.

The other thing to like about Next Shares is that his trainer, Richard Baltas, has entered speedster Neptune’s Storm in the Shoemaker Mile. That horse, along with Voodoo Song, should ensure a very brisk pace up front — they’ll also be kept honest by Blitzkrieg and War of Will, both of whom usually race on or near the lead. All of that speed adds up to good news for Next Shares. He’s a Grade 1 winner who has always done his best running when he’s had some pace to run into. The other two keys for him (like all stalking or closing-type runners) is clear running room late, and hopefully he’ll get that with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez taking the mount.

Lastly, we should take a look at True Valour. It’s hard to make much of an excuse for his flat finish in the Kilroe last out, but he’s truly performed better than what his results on paper might indicate. In the Thunder Road Stakes in February, he looked pretty keen early and it took him a few strides to settle down without throwing his head around and fighting his rider. Turning for home, it was clear that jockey Andrea Atzeni had plenty of horse under him but was just waiting for some running room. It ended up coming too late because River Boyne was in a better spot and had already taken command. True Valour did split horses nicely in the closing stages and was half a jump away from finishing second.

If you go back to the Breeders’ Cup Mile, True Valour had excuses there, too. He was up on heels early and he again took a little bit of time to settle down into a comfortable stride. Then, turning for him, he was just waiting for running room but instead got stuck behind a wall of horses. True Valour ended up steadying pretty badly and lost all chance at that point. I’m a little worried about how headstrong he tends to be early in races, but there’s a scenario here that could have at least two horses battling for the lead early and opening up some daylight on the rest of the field. That means he’ll be less likely to be running up on anyone’s heels and it also ensures that he’ll have a nice setup. Whether he can navigate clear passage late in the race is a separate matter.

Longshot Selections

#1 Without Parole

#3 Next Shares

#2 True Valour

Watch the Shoemaker Mile on Monday, May 25 from 6-8 p.m. ET on NBCSN, NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.

How to bet an exacta on a horse race

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Betting an exacta can present a challenge on several levels.

There is, of course, the primary need to analyze past performances and decide which horses are going to finish first and second.

Yet because of the inherently lower payoffs as opposed to what you’ll find in a Pick 3 or Pick 4, you’ll need to structure your wagers effectively in order to turn your selections into a profitable wager.

For starters, an exacta can be a simple wager. If you like two horses equally, you can just box them in the exacta and collect so long as they finish 1-2 in any order. If you like one of them a little more, you can then bet more on the one you prefer, say $10 on a 1-2 exacta and $5 on 2-1.

If you’re a little more uncertain, make sure you structure your bet around the size of the field and the probable payoffs.

If you like a longshot, the higher probable payoffs give you the cushion you need to wager on more combinations and still turn a nice profit.

But if you’re dealing with favorites or horses at relatively low odds, you have to wager more efficiently to preserve your profit.

In a field of six or less, you’re best to either focus on one horse or box two of them instead of boxing three or more horses because of the small payouts the bet will most likely generate.

In a field of seven, a wise strategy would be to box your top two choices and then, if you are worried about other horses, play them top and/or bottom other the other horses. For example, box 1-2, then bet 1-2 over 3-4 and 3-4 over 1-2. This way you are getting coverage on four horses without having to box them.

Once you get an eight-horse field, as long as there is not an overwhelming favorite, you can expand the number of horses you box since the payoffs will typically be higher, giving you a better opportunity to offset the inevitable array of losing tickets in a boxed wager.