Super Bowl Sunday betting moves: What to know for the 49ers-Chiefs clash

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Super Bowl Sunday has arrived, and bettors across the nation are revved up and ready to go. Covers checks in on the action and odds moves, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook manager at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.

Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -1; Move: -1.5

Kansas City carries an eight-game winning streak into this 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Miami, going a near-perfect 7-0-1 ATS in that stretch. In the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) trailed Tennessee 17-7 in the second quarter, then piled up the next 28 points in a 35-24 victory laying 7.5 points at home.

San Francisco is on a four-game run heading into the 2019-20 season finale, cashing in its last three outings. That includes a pair of 17-point playoff victories, with the 49ers (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) building a 27-0 lead against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game en route to a 37-20 victory as 8-point home favorites.

“The ticket count on the pointspread is just under 2/1 in favor of the Chiefs. The money is about 2.5/1 in favor of the Chiefs,” Shelton said of action at The Mirage and other MGM books, noting sharp play on both sides. “Right now, if the Chiefs win by 2 or more, it’s a 7-figure loss on the pointspread, but we pick up that much and then some off of 49ers moneyline betting.”

Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale put $1 million on 49ers moneyline +120 Wednesday evening, the largest reported bet on this year’s game so far in the legal U.S. market. On Saturday, another large player put $350,000 on Niners moneyline +105, and there was a $275,000 49ers moneyline play at +105 Friday night.

In fact, MGM books have been flooded with high-dollar bets to both sides. On Saturday afternoon, one bettor plopped $1 million on Kansas City across two bets: $750,000 on Chiefs -1.5, and $250,000 on Chiefs first-half moneyline -120. There was also a $550,000 bet on Chiefs -1 earlier in the week at MGM books.

“If the Chiefs win by 1, we’d cut down the nets. It’s over. We win everything,” Shelton said. “If the 49ers win, we lose on the moneyline, but pick up seven figures on the Chiefs -1.5. What we pick up in the futures market is pretty close on both teams. We’re in really good shape, but the Chiefs are the better of the two.”

The total bounced around more than the spread over the past two weeks. MGM opened at 53.5, reached 54.5 on Jan. 26 and stuck there until Friday, when the number ticked down to 54.

“It started off all Over money, but we’ve taken a ton of Under money now,” Shelton said. “Exactly 54 is not good for us, Over 54 is a low-six-figure loser, Under 54, we pick up a low-six-figure win.”

One better put $450,000 on the alternate total of Over 42.5, at -450, to win $100,000. That led to Shelton putting forth MGM books’ most ideal scenario when the clock hits zero Sunday night.

“We’re dreaming of Under 42.5,” he said. “Our dream scenario is Chiefs 21-20. That would probably be the best Super Bowl we’ve ever had.”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook