Super Bowl LIV between the 49ers and Chiefs is finally here! And we’ve spent the last two weeks combing through the best betting angles for the Big Game – compiling the greatest list player props, derivatives and everything in between. From the National at to the Gatorade shower, we have every bet you need to make this Sunday Sunday.
PLAYER PROP — RAHEEM MOSTERT OVER 65.5 RUSHING YARDS
Even if Tevin Coleman were 100 percent healthy — which he isn’t — we would still love this number. Coleman got in a full practice on Friday and will suit up Sunday, but his effectiveness is unknown. San Francisco is too dominant of a running team and now get to face the No. 29 DVOA rush defense that allowed rushers to trot for 4.8 yards per carry (6th-most) over the season.
In the playoff, the 49ers have run the ball on 77 percent of their offensive plays and finished second in the league in rushing attempts per game at 32.6. The Mostert total opened at 60.5, went to 65.5 quickly and is still available on some books at 73.5. Considering some other books have it at 80.5, 73.5 is still a good play.
QUICK HITTER — CHIEFS FIRST-HALF TEAM TOTAL OVER 13.5
The Kansas City Chiefs have combined for 90 first-half points in their two playoff games and are averaging 24.5 points themselves in the first 30 minutes. We will call it a winner if the Chiefs can score two touchdowns, something they haven’t had any problems doing.
Patrick Mahomes and the offense have scored seven times in the first half throughout the playoffs — all of those scores being touchdowns. A lot of the TD success has come from the team’s ability to cross the goal line in the red zone as K.C. has scored a TD in each of its six red-zone trips in the postseason.
With the Chiefs averaging just over two minutes per first-half TD drive, we like Andy Reid putting together a great offensive gameplan for the early possessions before the 49ers adjust and make life more difficult for later in the game. We like the Over Chiefs’ first-half total 13.5.
TEAM PROPS — TEAM TO SCORE LONGEST TD – KANSAS CITY -120
The Chiefs have been the better team this postseason at scoring the longer touchdown. Kansas City has scored six touchdowns of 40-plus yards in its last seven games while scoring the longest TD in six of its last seven.
Since Week 15, San Francisco has scored just one TD of 40-plus yards (a defensive TD) and has an average TD length of 14.25 yards over that stretch while the Chiefs’ average touchdown length over that same time is 22 yards.
If the game flow goes as we predict it: San Francisco playing with the lead and pounding the rock, then K.C. will be put in a better position to take their shots and push the ball. The Niners also gave up receptions of 65, 42 and 23 yards in the Conference Finals and let Stefon Diggs score a 41-yard TD in the Divisional Round. We are taking the Chiefs and the more explosive offense to score the longest TD at -120.
NON-FOOTBALL PROP BET — LIME/GREEN/YELLOW +450
The Gatorade bath has become one of the more popular Super Bowl Special bets. Recently, there was some talk online about the Gatorade being purple in honor of Kobe (why not yellow?). This, in turn, has dropped the price of purple from +1800 all the way to -130.
If you missed the purple rush, go with the other color that represents the late Lakers star — yellow. Yellow is grouped with green and lime so there are no shenanigans on similar colors. It’s also the other wager that moved the least in the last week, going from +350 to +450.
LONGSHOT MVP — MECOLE HARDMAN, K.C. CHIEFS +1800
The Chiefs’ return man and wide receiver has game-breaking speed and the ability to make a huge play on the kick return. Where most teams sit north of 50 percent on touchback percentage, the 49ers and kicker Robbie Gould are getting touchbacks at the 7th-worst rate in the league at 50 percent. This means the best return man in the league will have ample opportunities to make something big happen.
If Hardman can take it to the house (+1600 for a kickoff return TD) he will join only a handful of players to do so: Fulton Walker SB17 (lost game), Stanford Jennings SB23 (lost game), Andre Coleman SB29 (lost game), Desmond Howard SB 31 (MVP), Tim Dwight SB33 (lost game), Ron Dixon SB 35 (lost game), Jermaine Lewis SB 35, Devin Hester SB 41 (lost game), Jacoby Jones SB 47 (robbed of MVP, damn you Flacco) and Percy Harvin SB48.
The talent is there, the opportunity is as well and the price isn’t going to have anyone complaining. Maybe the 49ers can give up their fourth Super Bowl kickoff touchdown since Super Bowl XXVII. We are taking Harman as our longshot MVP at +1800.
FIVE YARDS FOR A WINNER
Looking to diversify your player prop portfolio for Sunday’s game? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo’s rushing total sits at an unheard of 4.5 yards. That’s basically one small jump for a winner. There is obviously a reason why his total is so low as the San Francisco quarterback is averaging just 3.6 yards rushing a game thanks to a 1.4 yards per carry.
The G-man has gone over 4.5 rushing yards in just six of his 18 games this year but is 2-1 O/U in the 49ers three losses. A trend that sits in the QB’s favor is that KC has allowed opposing quarterbacks to top 4.5 yards in six of its last seven games including a 20-yard rushing performance from Tom Brady in Week 14.
If Brady can do it, so can Garoppolo. This one is more fun than anything else, but we are still adding Garoppolo’s Over 4.5 rushing yards to our championship plays.
BETTING ON THE LAST PLAY
The Super Bowl brings us a plethora of game props that aren’t usually available during the regular season. When Over/Under shortest touchdown of 1.5 yards is a standard game prop for you, then you need some weird action to tickle your fancy.
One such play caught our attention: last play of game QB rush (yes -167; no +136). If you’re taking the “no” you will be hoping for a comeback as the victory formation is your greatest enemy and if you’re backing the yes, a quarterback kneel is considered a rushing attempt.
Looking back on each teams’ last five wins, three losses and the last play of the previous seven Super Bowls gives us these results:
San Francisco last five wins — 3-2 Y/N
San Francisco last three losses — 0-3 Y/N
Kansas City last five wins — 5-0 Y/N
Kansas City last three losses — 1-2 Y/N
Last 10 Super Bowls — 4-6 Y/N
This is another bet that you can add to the “fun list” of props as cheering for the plus-money “No” keeps you hoping for the trailing offense to keep possession. We see this closer to a 50/50 bet than the odds suggest and are happy to take the No for +136.
WAITING FOR THE FIRST
We don’t know much about chronological order as we are segueing from the last play of the game to the contest’s first TD. If you’re in the boat that thinks the 49ers won’t have any difficulty rushing the ball against the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, there are many special bets out there.
The one that took our attention was regarding how the first TD will be scored. Passing TD – First TD of the Game is a big favorite as it sits at -156 while Any Other TD – First TD of the Game is a tempting +120.
The 49ers had the league’s third-best rushing touchdown percentage at just under 50 percent and that number jumps to 85 percent over their last five games. The Chiefs could also help us out with a winner as they have scored rushing TDs at a 42-percent rate of their total offensive TDs, but we like the Niners to get the first crack at an easier touchdown with their defense making life more difficult than the K.C. offense is used to.
We like the Any Other TD – First TD of the Game at +120
KITTLE VS. KELCE
Super Bowl 54 features arguably the two best tight ends in the NFL. Travis Kelce and George Kittle finished first and third respectively in receiving yards this year as Kelce averaged nearly ten yards more than the 49ers TE.
With San Francisco committing to the run, Kittle has stayed in and helped with the blocking as he has been targeted six times in the playoffs and just once in the Conference round. Kelce, on the other hand, put up 134 yards on 10 grabs and a trio of touchdowns in the Divisional game and sputtered a bit versus Tennessee gaining just 30 yards on three grabs.
With the K.C. offense’s motor being driven by the passing game, we will take Kelce to get the most receiving yards between him and Kittle. Kelce pays -120 to outperform the San Fran TE.
Patrick Mahomes has topped his rushing totals in both his playoff wins. In the Divisional Round, the Kansas City QB rushed for 53 yards, crushing his rushing total of 19.5 yards. One week earlier, the 2018 MVP ran for 53 yards and also paid Over backers with his total of 18.5 yards.
Now in the big game, Mahomes’ rushing total has catapulted to 32.5 yards. Mahomes was 2-12 O/U 32.5 yards during the regular season and has only rushed for more than 32 yards in five of his 32 career games.
San Francisco has also done a very good job of limiting opposing QBs from scrambling. Kirk Cousins didn’t attempt one rush three weeks ago and Aaron Rodgers rushed once for zero yards two weeks ago. Even in the four games leading up to the playoffs, San Fran held QBs to 3.8 yards per carry on 18 rushes for 69 yards with no signal-caller reaching the 30-yard mark.
We don’t like taking Unders, especially against possibly the best player in the game, but we feel that Mahomes’ rushing total has been inflated a bit too much. We are taking the Under 32.5 yards rushing for the K.C. QB.
TOUGH TASK FOR WILLIAMS
The Chiefs’ Damien Williams has hauled in seven passes this postseason for 65 yards which puts the running back’s yards per reception at 9.28 yards on the small sample. Add in Weeks 16 and 17 — Williams missed the four games prior due to injury — and you get a back who sees 90 percent of the backfield snaps averaging 30.5 receiving yards per game on 3.5 catches (5.5 targets).
This Sunday, Williams has his total set right around that average at 29.5 yards, a number he might find difficult topping against the 49ers elite defense.
San Francisco was the best team in the league at limiting opposing running backs’ receiving yards. The league’s No. 2 defense held RBs to just 25.5 yards receiving on six targets per game in 2019. Aaron Jones caught all five of his targets in the Conference Finals and still finished with only 27 yards. Dalvin Cook fared even worse as he hauled in six of his eight targets in the Divisional game and finished with a whopping eight yards. Cook and Jones finished 5th and 8th in RB receiving yards respectively.
With the Niners rushing just four guys on most plays, it’s tough sleddding for running backs to get open and seperate from defenders. We are fading the Chiefs RB in the passing game and taking the Under 30.5 yards receiving.
THE FIRST PLAY OF SUPER BOWL LIV
With tons of money being thrown at the coin toss, is it that much more degenerate to put some dollars on the first offensive play of the game? Run is the heavy favorite at -164 with Pass paying +110. Let’s look into each team’s trends regarding their first offensive play:
- In the playoffs, both teams have run the ball on the first play all four times. In the playoffs, the Run is 3-1 in the four games that both the Chiefs and 49ers have played.
- Over the Chiefs’ last 10 games (excluding playoffs), the offense has run the ball six of 10 times on the first play. The Chiefs’ opponents ran the ball on the first play in six of the last 10 regular-season games.
- Over the 49ers’ last 10 games (excluding playoffs), the offense ran the ball seven of 10 times on the first play. The 49ers’ opponents ran the ball on the first play in eight of the last 10 regular-season games.
- The first offensive play from the previous 10 Super Bowls was split 5-5, however, a pass was the first play in four of the last five Super Bowls.
The juice is heavy for a reason as almost all the trends point to a run on the first play. It might be worth it.
We are down to four sleeps till Super Bowl 54. Neither the line nor the total has moved much since it opened on Jan 20 at Sports Interaction. The Chiefs are still 1.5-point chalk after opening at -1 while the total opened at 53.5, peaked at 55 and now sits at 54.
It may sound cliche, but this is a classic defense-against-offense matchup with Kansas City’s top-three DVOA offense facing San Francisco’s No. 2 DVOA defense. The biggest advantage the 49ers have is their defensive-front four who are so disruptive that Robert Saleh seldom has to commit his linebackers and secondary to blitzes. The Niners sat in the bottom-three in blitz percentage as it allows them to drop seven players in coverage.
Not blitzing could also help in another situation as the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has a quarterback rating of 117.2 when facing the blitz versus 106.3 when not.
Statistically, the Chiefs have 56 first downs through their two playoff games with just eight of those coming on third down — 8-for-18. San Fran’s defense could put Mahomes and the offense in an uncomfortable and unfamiliar position by forcing Kansas City to pass the ball on third down against seven defenders in coverage.
We usually look at player/team props and derivatives, but it wouldn’t be fair if we didn’t get our two cents in on the side. We have made our choice and going with the defense — Niners +1.5.
WINNING BIG WITH SPECIAL TEAMS
With a lofty total of 54 points, SB54 could have its fair share of scoring. With scoring comes the usually bland kick returns, unless you’re the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs’ full-time returner, Mecole Hardman, led the league in return yards with 932 — 100 yards more than the next player.
Hardman will have ample opportunities to make something happen as the 49ers have a touchback percentage of 50 percent which ranks in the bottom seven of the league. On top of leading the league in return yards, the K.C. returner with 4.3 wheels also has the longest kickoff return this year at 104 yards and is only one of seven players to score a kickoff return TD. The last kickoff return TD in a Super Bowl was by Jacoby Jones back in 2012.
Very few things in a football game are as exciting as a kickoff return touchdown, especially when it pays 15 times your wager. Find the “Will there be a kickoff return TD” and add the Yes (+1427) to your betting slip.
THE LONGEST YARD
Looking at both the longest score props of the game, the longest touchdown scored prop sits at 44.5 yards while the longest field goal’s total is 47.5 yards. It may be fun to play these bets, but previous Super Bowls haven’t been very profitable for these Overs.
In the last 10 Super Bowls, Over 47.5 yards for the longest field has hit just once — Rams’ Greg Zuerlein’s 53-yarder last year. To make matters even worse the Over is just 3-7 O/U in the Chiefs and 49ers combined previous five games while the Chiefs have attempted just one field goal this postseason.
Since Super Bowl 44, a touchdown of 45 yards or longer has been scored six times, but only in four of the 10 games. Of those six, only one was scored by an offense** (three interception returns, a punt return and a kickoff return). San Francisco is 1-4 O/U longest TD of 44.5 yards in its last five with the only long score coming on a pick-six and Kansas City is 3-2 O/U that total in its last five. 45 Yards is longer than we think as even Stefon Diggs’ TD against the Niners in the Divisional round was shy at 41 yards.
We don’t always like betting with the trends, but this one has our interest and we have no problem hitting the Under on both longest field goal and longest TD.
**So, here is the question: Which QB threw the longest TD in a Super Bowl over the last 10 years?
FEELS GREAT BABY
We keep coming back to the point that Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted just 27 passes in his two playoff games. In those two games, he has just 17 completions, one touchdown and an interception. That’s what happens when your team doesn’t trail. Jimmy G has yet to play catch-up mode in a sudden death game. That could change next weekend.
In the 10 games that Garoppolo has had to throw at least 27 passes (his season average) the San Francisco quarterback has an impressive 20 touchdowns but has also thrown 10 interceptions.
Kansas City had the 7th-most interceptions averaging 0.9 per game during the regular season and even though it has yet to record an interception in the postseason, the Chiefs have come very close with a few drops versus Deshaun Watson and an overturned pick against Ryan Tannehill.
We are backing the Over 0.5 Garoppolo interceptions.
We think our strongest play is the Raheem Mostert Over 65.5 rush yards that we wrote about yesterday. The line has moved from -120 to -175 since then. We are comfortable taking the Over up to 75-79 yards and feel his anytime touchdown (-120) is of great value as well, considering that Chiefs running back Damien Williams’ anytime TD is at -152.
Williams is running against the league’s second-best defense (11th in DVOA rush) while Mostert matches-up against the league’s No. 14 defense (29th in DVOA rush). The Chiefs have been anything but stingy in regards to giving up rushing touchdowns as they tied for the ninth-most rushing TDs allowed per game (0.9) this year.
If we are jumping on the Mostert Over rushing total then we have zero problems complimenting it with an anytime TD.
WHERE DO YOU MICROPHONE-STAND?
In a previous interview, Super Bowl anthem singer Demi Lovato mentioned that both Christina Aguilera and Kelly Clarkson are two of her main musical influences. Lovato is also featured in Aguilera’s 2018 song Fall in Line.
So where are we going with this? Well, it just so happens that Aguilera and Clarkson have both sung the national anthem at Super Bowls in 2011 and 2012 respectively and there could be chance that this year’s singer could be studying her idols and predecessors for her performance on next Sunday.
Both Aguilera and Clarkson wore black dresses with the latter using a microphone stand while Aguilera did not. Lovato is paying -200 if she performs in a dress, skirt or gown and also pays +135 if she chooses to sing without a microphone stand.
In the last 10 Super Bowl anthems, females have worn a dress, skirt or gown in five of nine times (only one dress has been worn since 2014) and singers have sung without a microphone stand in seven of the last 10 performances.
Say no to the stand for a possible plus-money winner.
FLAG ON THE PLAY
Looking for a real degen bet, how about cheering for flags? Both teams are paying -120 to accept the first penalty of the game. The Chiefs and 49ers each finished in the middle of the league in penalties per game at just over six per game and both forced their opponents this year to nearly eight flags per contest.
Kansas City’s opponents have taken 23 penalties for 212 yards over its last three games compared to San Francisco’s opponents’ 12 penalties for 89 yards since Week 17. Both teams are taking penalties at about the same rate over their last few games, but the biggest difference is that the Chiefs are forcing teams to commit twice as many penalties as the 49ers are.
If you’re a fan of laundry, take the Chiefs to accept the first penalty of the game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played two playoff games and have combined for 90 first-half points. They have spotted their opponents 20.5 first-half points per game while Patrick Mahomes and the offense have averaged 24.5 themselves. The Chiefs have done all their first-half scoring with seven touchdowns and zero field goals as the red zone has become a familiar and comfortable place for the offense. In their six, first-half trips inside their opponents’ 20, Kansas City has scored six TDs.
San Francisco has been no stranger to first-half Overs as they have put up 41 first-half points in its two playoff games and have seen first-half totals of 27 and 24 points. We love how quickly Mahomes and the Chiefs can score (averaging just over two minutes per first-half touchdown drive in the playoffs) and are riding the Chiefs’ first-half team total Over 13.5 points but think the first-half Over 27 is also a great play.
LONGER THAN YOURS
With the 49ers leaning on the run heavily through two playoff games (89 rushing attempts to just 27 passes) we think K.C. has the best chance of scoring the longest touchdown and with the odds at -120 for both teams, we see great value.
The Chiefs have scored six touchdowns of 40-plus yards over their last seven games and have scored the longest TD in six of those sevens games. The 49ers, on the other hand, have scored just one TD of 40-plus yards (a defensive INT) since Week 15 and have an average TD length of 14.25 yards over that stretch (K.C. averages 22 yards per TD).
Last week, the Niners gave up receptions of 65, 42 and 23 yards to the Packers and let Stefon Diggs score a 41-yard touchdown in the Divisional round. We are taking the more explosive offense to score the longest TD.
PUPPY BOWL 16
The Puppy Bowl is the appetizer for the day’s big match. The Animal Planet “competition” features adoptable pets from rescue shelters (most are already adopted by kickoff) from all over America. Some books have odds on the spread (Team Fluff -7.5 +100 Vs. Team Ruff +7.5 -140), gender of MVP (male -130, female -110) and will a puppy attempt to mate (yes +350, No -600). There are 42 starters (21 aside) and each team has 27 backups.
Of the 42 starters, 24 of them are 17 weeks or younger while the remaining 18 are 18 weeks or older. If the MVP is Under 17.5 weeks old is, bettors can pick up 1.57 times their wager and 2.35 times if the MVP is Over 17.5 weeks old. A sharp line indeed, maybe we will just take Team Ruff and the points at -140.
San Francisco running back Tevin Coleman was still sidelined at practice on Thursday after dislocating his shoulder last week. He was seen running on the sidelines but there could be great value jumping on his teammate’s rushing total early.
With his rushing total at 65.5 yards, it would seem the books aren’t expecting Raheem Mostert to take the entirety of the backfield touches (last week Mostert’s and Coleman’s combiined totals were around 95 yards) on an offense that has averaged 44.5 rushes per game during its postseason run. If Coleman’s outlook becomes bleaker as the weekend hits, Mostert’s total could easily hit 72-79 yards.
Although the K.C. rush defense held Derrick Henry to 69 yards last week, this is still a unit that finished 29th in DVOA rush defense this year and faces a San Francisco rushing attack that has been getting 4.54 yards per carry over its last four games against the 8th, 9th, 23rd and 26th DVOA rush defenses.
Sign us up for Mostert’s Over on his 65.5 rushing yards.
Lost in all the Patrick Mahomes hoopla is the production of Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins. Through two playoff games, the veteran receiver has 190 yards on nine catches and one touchdown. Watkins has catches of 60, 48 and 28 yards this postseason as the third- or fourth-best option in the K.C. passing game.
Watkins could get loose in San Fran’s Cover 3 if the deep safety is distracted by Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, possibly leaving Watkins in single coverage. With Watkins running about 40 percent of his snaps out of the slot, he has the chance to test and expose different members of San Francisco’s secondary.
Watkins’ yardage total sits at 48.5 yards, a number he has gone Over in four of his last six games. Another Watkins bet we love is the Over 20.5 yards for his longest reception. The Chiefs WR is 6-1 O/U on that total across his last seven games.
PASS THE BALL, JIMMY
Over his last four wins dating back to Week 16, San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 12.75 completions on 19 passes for 185 yards. Jimmy G has thrown the ball more than 34 times just four times this year and is running an offense that has rushed 89 times in its last two win-or-go-home games.
The most frequent runners this year were the Baltimore Ravens who led the league with 37.7 rush attempts per game — the 49ers are averaging 44.5 rushes per game in the playoffs.
With Garoppolo’s passing attempt total at 32.5, we are recommending the Under as the 49ers running game should enjoy the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, keeping the QB in hand-off mode.
IS IT IN YOU?
One of the more popular prop bets at the Super Bowl is what color will the liquid be that is dumped on the winning coach. The last 10 championship showers have been orange (4), blue (2), none (2), yellow (1) and purple (1) — clear hasn’t won since 2007.
The current odds are as follows:
• Red +150
• Clear/ Water +300
• Lime/Green/Yellow +325
• Orange +400
• Blue +500
• Purple +1800
If you’re looking for an edge: Andy Reid was seen drinking lime-colored sports drink back in Week 15. Red is most likely the lowest odds because both teams share that color. Reid was doused with Yellow Gatorade back in 2013 after beating the Eagles. Last year, the Patriots got coach Bill Belichik with some blue drink and the year before the Eagles got Doug Pederson with a yellow bath.
Not sure who to take in Super Bowl 54, take a look at the Team to Score First Wins – No bet for +130. This bet offers great value and does all the work for you in regard to choosing sides. If San Francisco scores first — something it has done in four of its last five games — then you will be cheering for Kansas City.
The Chiefs have hit the “No” in both of their playoff games as the Texans and Titans put up the first points while the 49ers scored first in their two playoff games but had the Team to Score First Wins – No hit in four of their final five regular-season games.
RUNNING INTO PROBLEMS
Damien Williams has seen 29 of the Chiefs’ 30 running back carries in the playoffs but has gained just 92 yards against the No. 22 and No. 10 rush defenses. Should we expect the running back to top his rushing total of 53.5 yards against San Francisco’s No. 2 DVOA defense that held Aaron Jones to 12-56-1 and Dalvin Cook to 9-18-0?
Over their last five games, the 49ers have allowed an average of 44.6 yards to opposing teams’ leading rusher. The Niners have a theme of not giving up big gains on the ground as the longest rushing play, they have given up in the last six weeks was a 15-yard run — they have also held two of their last five opponents to a long run of under 10 yards.
We are taking the Under 53.5 rushing yards for Williams.
OH, SAY CAN YOU SEE
The Over/Under for the national anthem sung by Demi Lovato sits at two minutes. Over two minutes is the heavy favorite at -200 and the Under two minutes is paying +150. Heading into the 2019 Super Bowl, the average length of the anthem was one minute 55 seconds (n=28).
Last year, the length was set at one minute 45 seconds and Gladys Knight hit the Over, clocking in at two minutes and one second. However, the Under has hit in nine of the last 13 Super Bowls.
One of the most recent versions of Lovato singing the national anthem — McGregor Vs. Mayweather in 2018 — clocks the singer at two minutes 12 seconds in what looks like a visibly nervous performance. The female singer pays +600 if she omits or forgets a word.
We are trusting the juice and leaning on the Over.
Although Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker has attempted just one field goal so far in the playoffs, he finished the season hitting nearly 90 percent of his FGs, good for a Top-7 finish. Butker was also a perfect 13-for-13 from 40-49 yards and had long of 56 yards.
His kicking opponent, Robbie Gould, finished 28th in FG% (77.8%) but has made all five of his kicks this postseason including a season-high 54-yarder last week. The San Fran veteran is also a perfect 13-for-13 in his nine career playoff games.
The 49ers could make things more difficult for Mahomes in the red zone while Kansas City’s red zone defense was the 8th-best unit in the league, allowing a TD in 51 percent of its opponents’ RZ possessions.
We like the Over 3.5 field goals at -115 or if you prefer one kick over the other, both kickers’ totals sits at 7.5 with the Over paying -130.
Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.
Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.
Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview
Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)
Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)
If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.
The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.
Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)
Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)
Betting Trend to Know
Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.
The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.
PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)
Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.
The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)
Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.
PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card
- Vegas ML (-175)
- Over 5.5 (-110)
- Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?
Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.
Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.
Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?
At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.
However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.
How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?
In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.
World Series odds
|Team||Odds to win|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+350|
|New York Yankees||+350|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+1,800|
|New York Mets||+2,000|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+2,500|
|San Diego Padres||+2,500|
|Chicago White Sox||+3,000|
|Los Angeles Angels||+3,000|
|Boston Red Sox||+5,000|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+10,000|
|San Francisco Giants||+30,000|
|Kansas City Royals||+30,000|
Odds courtesy The SuperBook