We are coming down the home stretch to Super Bowl LIV! With just two sleeps to go we’ve been compiling the best betting angles for the Big Game – for player props, derivatives and everything in between – and today we dive into the odds for the first play of the game so you can start the Super Bowl off with a winning bet.
FIVE YARDS FOR A WINNER
Looking to diversify your player prop portfolio for Sunday’s game? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo’s rushing total sits at an unheard of 4.5 yards. That’s basically one small jump for a winner. There is obviously a reason why his total is so low as the San Francisco quarterback is averaging just 3.6 yards rushing a game thanks to a 1.4 yards per carry.
The G-man has gone over 4.5 rushing yards in just six of his 18 games this year but is 2-1 O/U in the 49ers three losses. A trend that sits in the QB’s favor is that KC has allowed opposing quarterbacks to top 4.5 yards in six of its last seven games including a 20-yard rushing performance from Tom Brady in Week 14.
If Brady can do it, so can Garoppolo. This one is more fun than anything else, but we are still adding Garoppolo’s Over 4.5 rushing yards to our championship plays.
BETTING ON THE LAST PLAY
The Super Bowl brings us a plethora of game props that aren’t usually available during the regular season. When Over/Under shortest touchdown of 1.5 yards is a standard game prop for you, then you need some weird action to tickle your fancy.
One such play caught our attention: last play of game QB rush (yes -167; no +136). If you’re taking the “no” you will be hoping for a comeback as the victory formation is your greatest enemy and if you’re backing the yes, a quarterback kneel is considered a rushing attempt.
Looking back on each teams’ last five wins, three losses and the last play of the previous seven Super Bowls gives us these results:
San Francisco last five wins — 3-2 Y/N
San Francisco last three losses — 0-3 Y/N
Kansas City last five wins — 5-0 Y/N
Kansas City last three losses — 1-2 Y/N
Last 10 Super Bowls — 4-6 Y/N
This is another bet that you can add to the “fun list” of props as cheering for the plus-money “No” keeps you hoping for the trailing offense to keep possession. We see this closer to a 50/50 bet than the odds suggest and are happy to take the No for +136.
WAITING FOR THE FIRST
We don’t know much about chronological order as we are segueing from the last play of the game to the contest’s first TD. If you’re in the boat that thinks the 49ers won’t have any difficulty rushing the ball against the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, there are many special bets out there.
The one that took our attention was regarding how the first TD will be scored. Passing TD – First TD of the Game is a big favorite as it sits at -156 while Any Other TD – First TD of the Game is a tempting +120.
The 49ers had the league’s third-best rushing touchdown percentage at just under 50 percent and that number jumps to 85 percent over their last five games. The Chiefs could also help us out with a winner as they have scored rushing TDs at a 42-percent rate of their total offensive TDs, but we like the Niners to get the first crack at an easier touchdown with their defense making life more difficult than the K.C. offense is used to.
We like the Any Other TD – First TD of the Game at +120
KITTLE VS. KELCE
Super Bowl 54 features arguably the two best tight ends in the NFL. Travis Kelce and George Kittle finished first and third respectively in receiving yards this year as Kelce averaged nearly ten yards more than the 49ers TE.
With San Francisco committing to the run, Kittle has stayed in and helped with the blocking as he has been targeted six times in the playoffs and just once in the Conference round. Kelce, on the other hand, put up 134 yards on 10 grabs and a trio of touchdowns in the Divisional game and sputtered a bit versus Tennessee gaining just 30 yards on three grabs.
With the K.C. offense’s motor being driven by the passing game, we will take Kelce to get the most receiving yards between him and Kittle. Kelce pays -120 to outperform the San Fran TE.