We are coming down the home stretch to Super Bowl LIV! With just two sleeps to go we’ve been compiling the best betting angles for the Big Game – for player props, derivatives and everything in between – and today we dive into the odds for the first play of the game so you can start the Super Bowl off with a winning bet.
FIVE YARDS FOR A WINNER
Looking to diversify your player prop portfolio for Sunday’s game? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo’s rushing total sits at an unheard of 4.5 yards. That’s basically one small jump for a winner. There is obviously a reason why his total is so low as the San Francisco quarterback is averaging just 3.6 yards rushing a game thanks to a 1.4 yards per carry.
The G-man has gone over 4.5 rushing yards in just six of his 18 games this year but is 2-1 O/U in the 49ers three losses. A trend that sits in the QB’s favor is that KC has allowed opposing quarterbacks to top 4.5 yards in six of its last seven games including a 20-yard rushing performance from Tom Brady in Week 14.
If Brady can do it, so can Garoppolo. This one is more fun than anything else, but we are still adding Garoppolo’s Over 4.5 rushing yards to our championship plays.
BETTING ON THE LAST PLAY
The Super Bowl brings us a plethora of game props that aren’t usually available during the regular season. When Over/Under shortest touchdown of 1.5 yards is a standard game prop for you, then you need some weird action to tickle your fancy.
One such play caught our attention: last play of game QB rush (yes -167; no +136). If you’re taking the “no” you will be hoping for a comeback as the victory formation is your greatest enemy and if you’re backing the yes, a quarterback kneel is considered a rushing attempt.
Looking back on each teams’ last five wins, three losses and the last play of the previous seven Super Bowls gives us these results:
San Francisco last five wins — 3-2 Y/N
San Francisco last three losses — 0-3 Y/N
Kansas City last five wins — 5-0 Y/N
Kansas City last three losses — 1-2 Y/N
Last 10 Super Bowls — 4-6 Y/N
This is another bet that you can add to the “fun list” of props as cheering for the plus-money “No” keeps you hoping for the trailing offense to keep possession. We see this closer to a 50/50 bet than the odds suggest and are happy to take the No for +136.
WAITING FOR THE FIRST
We don’t know much about chronological order as we are segueing from the last play of the game to the contest’s first TD. If you’re in the boat that thinks the 49ers won’t have any difficulty rushing the ball against the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, there are many special bets out there.
The one that took our attention was regarding how the first TD will be scored. Passing TD – First TD of the Game is a big favorite as it sits at -156 while Any Other TD – First TD of the Game is a tempting +120.
The 49ers had the league’s third-best rushing touchdown percentage at just under 50 percent and that number jumps to 85 percent over their last five games. The Chiefs could also help us out with a winner as they have scored rushing TDs at a 42-percent rate of their total offensive TDs, but we like the Niners to get the first crack at an easier touchdown with their defense making life more difficult than the K.C. offense is used to.
We like the Any Other TD – First TD of the Game at +120
KITTLE VS. KELCE
Super Bowl 54 features arguably the two best tight ends in the NFL. Travis Kelce and George Kittle finished first and third respectively in receiving yards this year as Kelce averaged nearly ten yards more than the 49ers TE.
With San Francisco committing to the run, Kittle has stayed in and helped with the blocking as he has been targeted six times in the playoffs and just once in the Conference round. Kelce, on the other hand, put up 134 yards on 10 grabs and a trio of touchdowns in the Divisional game and sputtered a bit versus Tennessee gaining just 30 yards on three grabs.
With the K.C. offense’s motor being driven by the passing game, we will take Kelce to get the most receiving yards between him and Kittle. Kelce pays -120 to outperform the San Fran TE.
Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.
Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.
Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview
Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)
Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)
If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.
The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.
Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)
Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)
Betting Trend to Know
Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.
The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.
PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)
Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.
The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)
Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.
PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card
- Vegas ML (-175)
- Over 5.5 (-110)
- Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?
Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.
Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.
Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.
How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?
At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.
However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.
How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?
In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.
World Series odds
|Team||Odds to win|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+350|
|New York Yankees||+350|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+1,800|
|New York Mets||+2,000|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+2,500|
|San Diego Padres||+2,500|
|Chicago White Sox||+3,000|
|Los Angeles Angels||+3,000|
|Boston Red Sox||+5,000|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+10,000|
|San Francisco Giants||+30,000|
|Kansas City Royals||+30,000|
Odds courtesy The SuperBook