The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will meet in Miami on February 2, but their path to Super Bowl LIV – and their odds to win the Big Game – were very different.
Kansas City opened the 2019 schedule as one of the top contenders in the AFC, priced at 7/1 after losing in overtime to New England in last year’s conference championship. The Chiefs’ futures odds would take a dramatic swing midway through the year when QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a knee injury, getting as high as 12/1. However, K.C. closed the season on a red-hot run and after two come-from-behind wins in the playoffs, are installed around -120 to win Super Bowl LIV.
San Francisco, on the other hand, was way down the betting board when Super Bowl LIV futures opened, parked at 50/1. Then the schedule began, and the 49ers quickly became the class of the NFC. Their Super Bowl odds slimmed with every win and while the wheels wobbled at the end of the regular season – with the Niners at 6/1 after a Week 15 – they enter Super Bowl LIV as a +110 underdog to win outright.
If you’re holding a futures ticket on the Chiefs or 49ers, here’s the proper way to hedge and guarantee yourself profit when the confetti flies at Super Bowl LIV.
HOW DO YOU HEDGE YOUR BET?
Hedging a bet is essentially an insurance plan. A $100 bettor with the ticket on the 49ers at 40/1 is looking at a possible $4,000 winning ticket. Of course, the ticket could also be worthless if the Chiefs end up winning the Super Bowl outright.**video
One way for the San Francisco bettor to go would be to wager half of their potential winnings ($2,000 in this case) on Kansas City to win on the moneyline. The Chiefs are around -120 to win outright which means our bettor is looking at only a $1,667 profit in this scenario, but it’s much better than the alternative should Patrick Mahomes led K.C. to victory.
Some people will argue letting it ride is gambling in a truer sense. Go big or go home. A hedge bet is not for those types of people.
As for the $100 Kansas City bettor who took that Chiefs earlier this year at 7/1? Well, the hedge actually works out better due to the fact they can toss half of their possible winnings ($350) on the Niners’ moneyline at +105 (winning $ $367.50).
If the Chiefs bettor is really ballsy, they could roll the dice and try to win on both sides with a bet on 49ers +1.5 (-110), giving them a chance to win both bets should Kansas City squeak out a 1-point win in the Super Bowl. However, 1-point wins are very rare and only occur less than 3.5 percent of the time.