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Super Bowl LIV odds update: Big Game lookahead spread swings a full field goal

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Your Super Bowl LIV champion is…

San Francisco or Green Bay or Tennessee or Kansas City. We’re down to the final four with the NFL conference championship games going off this weekend. Each week, we were looking at the biggest climb and fall in the Big Game betting futures but now that we’re down to these four contenders, let’s peek at each as well as the lookahead spread and total for Super Bowl LIV.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

OPEN: 7/1
DIVISIONAL ROUND: 7/2
NOW: 7/5

Thanks to Tennessee knocking off Baltimore, the Chiefs jump to the top of the Super Bowl LIV odds. Kansas City now hosts the AFC title game and faces a sizzling No. 6 seed following its crazy come-from-wayyyyyyyy-behind win against the Texans in the Divisional Round.

The Chiefs are now +140 front runners to party with Lombardi in Miami. Savvy sports bettors could have had Patrick Mahomes & Co. around 10/1 odds to win the Big Game back in mid-November, following a road loss to this very same Tennessee team.

Just behind the Chiefs are the Niners, who looked more like themselves in a dominating win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round than they have in the past month and a half. The bye between the Wild Card and Divisional Round allowed San Francisco to rest and return some important cogs on defense, and that showed versus the Vikings.

The 49ers face the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, taking a 7-2 SU record at home into Sunday including a 37-8 blasting of the Cheeseheads by the Bay in Week 12. The host team had won five straight NFC titles before the L.A. Rams’ infamous victory in New Orleans last January.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

OPEN: 16/1
DIVISIONAL ROUND: 7/1
NOW: 7/1

The Packers’ odds to win the Super Bowl stay still, given the Niners did what they were supposed to do in the Divisional Round. Green Bay held off a second-half surge from Seattle this past Sunday, and the defense showed up when it counted, making some key stops and big sacks.

Aaron Rodgers, a California kid, has had trouble with recent stops on the West Coast. We mentioned that one-sided loss at San Francisco in Week 12, however, the Packers QB is 0-3 SU in his last three games in the Golden State (losses at San Francisco, L.A. Chargers and L.A. Rams), going a combined 61 for 98 (62 percent) for 554 total yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in those defeats – a collective passer rating of 87.71.

 

TENNESSEE TITANS

OPEN: 60/1
DIVISIONAL ROUND: 30/1
NOW: 8/1

As pointed out by my Covers colleague Patrick Everson, if Tennessee does upset Kansas City on Sunday it would give the Titans four wins over divisional winners in each of its past four games (Houston, New England, and Baltimore already down). Books are giving the Titans plenty of respect in their fourth straight road game, with the AFC title game spread around a touchdown.

Only two other sixth-seeded NFL teams have won the Super Bowl: Pittsburgh in 2005-06 and Green Bay in 2010-11. Both of those teams had to go through the No. 2 seed on the road in their respective championship game. Tennessee has been a boom for the bookies in terms of the Super Bowl futures, knocking out major liability on the Patriots and Ravens.

SUPER BOWL LIV LOOKAHEAD LINE

OPEN: AFC -2.5, 57
DIVISIONAL ROUND: AFC -4, 49.5
NOW: AFC -1, 50.5

A field goal has been trimmed from the lookahead line for Super Bowl LIV in the wake of the Divisional Round. Baltimore being the top seed was setting the pace for this game, but now it’s based loosely on a Kansas City-San Francisco matchup in Miami.

The tick up in the total is also indicative to the Ravens getting routed. The Chiefs bring an air-centric approach on offense compared to the run-heavy playbook and defense of Baltimore. However, should we see the Titans sneak into the Super Bowl, expect a big swing in the odds and total for the official opener.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook