Your Super Bowl LIV champion is…
San Francisco or Green Bay or Tennessee or Kansas City. We’re down to the final four with the NFL conference championship games going off this weekend. Each week, we were looking at the biggest climb and fall in the Big Game betting futures but now that we’re down to these four contenders, let’s peek at each as well as the lookahead spread and total for Super Bowl LIV.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
OPEN: 7/1
DIVISIONAL ROUND: 7/2
NOW: 7/5
Thanks to Tennessee knocking off Baltimore, the Chiefs jump to the top of the Super Bowl LIV odds. Kansas City now hosts the AFC title game and faces a sizzling No. 6 seed following its crazy come-from-wayyyyyyyy-behind win against the Texans in the Divisional Round.
The Chiefs are now +140 front runners to party with Lombardi in Miami. Savvy sports bettors could have had Patrick Mahomes & Co. around 10/1 odds to win the Big Game back in mid-November, following a road loss to this very same Tennessee team.
Just behind the Chiefs are the Niners, who looked more like themselves in a dominating win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round than they have in the past month and a half. The bye between the Wild Card and Divisional Round allowed San Francisco to rest and return some important cogs on defense, and that showed versus the Vikings.
The 49ers face the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, taking a 7-2 SU record at home into Sunday including a 37-8 blasting of the Cheeseheads by the Bay in Week 12. The host team had won five straight NFC titles before the L.A. Rams’ infamous victory in New Orleans last January.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
OPEN: 16/1
DIVISIONAL ROUND: 7/1
NOW: 7/1
The Packers’ odds to win the Super Bowl stay still, given the Niners did what they were supposed to do in the Divisional Round. Green Bay held off a second-half surge from Seattle this past Sunday, and the defense showed up when it counted, making some key stops and big sacks.
Aaron Rodgers, a California kid, has had trouble with recent stops on the West Coast. We mentioned that one-sided loss at San Francisco in Week 12, however, the Packers QB is 0-3 SU in his last three games in the Golden State (losses at San Francisco, L.A. Chargers and L.A. Rams), going a combined 61 for 98 (62 percent) for 554 total yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in those defeats – a collective passer rating of 87.71.
TENNESSEE TITANS
OPEN: 60/1
DIVISIONAL ROUND: 30/1
NOW: 8/1
As pointed out by my Covers colleague Patrick Everson, if Tennessee does upset Kansas City on Sunday it would give the Titans four wins over divisional winners in each of its past four games (Houston, New England, and Baltimore already down). Books are giving the Titans plenty of respect in their fourth straight road game, with the AFC title game spread around a touchdown.
Only two other sixth-seeded NFL teams have won the Super Bowl: Pittsburgh in 2005-06 and Green Bay in 2010-11. Both of those teams had to go through the No. 2 seed on the road in their respective championship game. Tennessee has been a boom for the bookies in terms of the Super Bowl futures, knocking out major liability on the Patriots and Ravens.
SUPER BOWL LIV LOOKAHEAD LINE
OPEN: AFC -2.5, 57
DIVISIONAL ROUND: AFC -4, 49.5
NOW: AFC -1, 50.5
A field goal has been trimmed from the lookahead line for Super Bowl LIV in the wake of the Divisional Round. Baltimore being the top seed was setting the pace for this game, but now it’s based loosely on a Kansas City-San Francisco matchup in Miami.
The tick up in the total is also indicative to the Ravens getting routed. The Chiefs bring an air-centric approach on offense compared to the run-heavy playbook and defense of Baltimore. However, should we see the Titans sneak into the Super Bowl, expect a big swing in the odds and total for the official opener.
