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Cash in on Melvin Gordon against the Jaguars, and the NFL best bets you need to make in Week 14

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Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is starting to play like he did before his holdout and gets a mouthwatering matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL action on Sunday. We dive into the Week 14 odds, not just looking into pointspreads and totals but digging into the very best bets on the board: props, team totals, derivative markets and more.

THE X-MYLES

The Jacksonville Jaguars have sent starting linebacker Myles Jack to the injured reserved, ending his season. Jack leads the Jags in tackles and his absence is bad news for the Jaguars’ 31st-ranked DVOA rush defense but great news for the Los Angeles Chargers’ running backs.

Under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, Melvin Gordon is averaging 89 rushing yards and 21.5 receiving yards a game while the pint-sized Austin Ekeler is putting up 85 total yards himself. The Chargers’ offense hasn’t been putting up many points on the board this year but they have managed 370 yards of offense per game over their last three games — the seventh-most between Kansas City and San Francisco.

We are throwing down on Gordon’s Over 75.5 rushing yards but shying away on Ekeler’s receiving total of 53.5, which we feel is a little too high.

ARE YOU GOING TO THE SCARBROUGH FAIR?

Detroit Lions running back Bo Scarbrough has more rushing yards than Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott and Mark Ingram over the last two weeks as the 2018 7th-round pick has the second-most rushing attempts since Week 12. The Lions’ back also has 2.4 yards per carry after first contact which is the best mark in the leauge. The Lions are rushing the ball nearly 30 times a game as they try to take pressure off their inexperienced backup quarterback play.

Detroit will be in tough versus a Minnesota Vikings team that is giving up the seventh-fewest rushing yards at home. We don’t expect the Lions to totally abandon the run even if they fall behind early as they have nothing to play for. Therefore, we aren’t afraid to take Scarbrough’s rushing attempt total which sits at 18.5. We are playing the Over on that carry total but may shop around first and look for a lower total closer to Sunday.

RETURN OF THE MACK

The Indianapolis Colts got some great news this week as running back Marlon Mack returned to practice on Thursday. Mack had been sidelined with a hand injury for nearly three weeks. The Colts are one of the league’s best running teams, averaging 139 yards per game (4th) and are banged up in the receiving department (T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers). That might force them to lean on the run more ahead of Sunday’s game against the Tampa Buccaneers and their No. 1 DVOA rush defense.

Tampa is giving up just 76 yards on the ground this year, 72 over its last three games and have held teams’ leading rusher to under 40 yards in three of their last four games. We don’t trust Mack’s rushing total (once his markets open when he is declared active), but we do like his anytime TD.

The Colts have scored six rushing TDs over their last three games and will need Mack to cross the pylons with a lack of receiving talent and their playoff hopes still alive. Take Mack’s anytime TD.

DOUBLE TROUBLE

Matt Ryan and Kyle Allen are the most sacked quarterbacks over the last three weeks. Combined, Ryan and Allen have been taken down 34 times since Week 11. As luck would have it, the Carolina Panthers travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Sunday, making a play on the total sack prop quite mouthwatering.

Atlanta’s QB will face a hungry Panthers team under new direction while also getting to opposing QBs nearly four times a game. Things could turn ugly as the Falcons are giving up pressure Ryan on 31 percent of plays (23rd-worst).

Carolina’s rookie QB has looked horrendous at moments and has been sacked 39 times in his 10 games this year. Carolina’s O-line is allowing pressure at a 32-percent rate. Take the Over 5.5 sacks.

 

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook