Best spot bets for the NFL Week 12 odds: Browns-Steelers brawl bleeds over into schedule

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The schedule can make or break an NFL team at this point in the season. And it can do the same for your wagers. Situational handicapping should always be folded into – or at least considered when sizing up the NFL odds each week.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan looks at the Week 12 slate and picks out his favorite “Letdown”, “Lookahead”, and “Schedule” spots and how those situations could shake down at the sportsbook.

LETDOWN SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-11, 44)

The Browns had one hell of a Week 10, knocking off rival Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football and picking up their second straight win. In the midst of all that, standout DE Myles Garrett got into it with Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and tried knocking his head off with his own helmet.

It made for a very messy week in Ohio – a week in which Cleveland should have enjoyed a mini bye and some extra time to tinker before Week 12. However, the added stress and media attention marred what could have been a turning point for the Browns’ 2019 season.

The Week 12 opponent – Miami – is a tough team to get up for in the first place, and this letdown angle comes with a sprinkle of lookahead as well. Next up for the Browns: a trip to Heinz Field to play Pittsburgh in Week 13. Cleveland is currently laying 11 points versus the Dolphins at home this Sunday.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.5, 39)

Hey, what do you know? The other side of that Thursday’s night dramafest falls into one of our weekly spot bet slots. Pittsburgh can’t wait to get another crack at Cleveland after: 1. Losing to the Browns 21 -7 2. The Garrett incident which equalled a suspension for C Maurkice Pouncey and a fine for Rudolph.

But before the Steelers can exact revenge, they have another AFC North foe from Ohio standing in the way. The winless Bengals are a main ingredient for a lookahead spot, having cracked the 20-point plateau just twice all season. The last time Pittsburgh played Cincinnati, it rolled to a 27-3 victory on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

Oddsmakers are giving the host Bengals 6.5 points and that spread has already flirted with a touchdown at some markets, instantly taking money on Cincinnati and sliding the line back under the key number. According to our Covers Consensus, 70 percent of the early ticket count is on Pittsburgh so expect a move to Steelers -7 before kickoff.

SCHEDULE SPOT: OAKLAND RAIDERS AT NEW YORK JETS (+3, 45.5)

People love to play against West Coast teams coming east for an early 1 p.m. ET start, which is 10 a.m. PT back home. While blindly betting against those qualifying teams is a bad decision, the Raiders have played into this notion in recent years.

Heading into a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in East Rutherford, Oakland is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. This season, the Silver and Black have done a few of these early wakeups, losing SU and ATS at Minnesota in Week 3, winning and covering in Indianapolis in Week 4, winning and covering versus Chicago in London in Week 5, and losing and coming up short ATS at Green Bay in Week 7.

The Raiders played a road-heavy stretch of schedule during that span but have enjoyed three straight home games before this matchup with the Jets. Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games overall – regardless of start time – and the home team has been the hot bet when these teams clash, with hosts going 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook