Bears vs Rams NFL betting picks and predictions: Chicago’s pass rush will bring the heat

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It’s only Week 11 in the NFL but the Los Angeles Rams are in win-now mode as they host the Chicago Bears. Last year’s Super Bowl runners up are 5-4 but are falling behind in the NFC West and can’t afford to lose as 6-point favorites on Sunday night. From the opening kickoff to the final whistle we break down the odds with our best bets and predictions for this primetime matchup.  **video

CHICAGO BEARS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-6, 40)

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Both of these teams have struggled to move the chains this season. In the first quarter, the Rams average just 3.6 points per game while the Bears score just 2.7. Touchdowns will be a premium on Sunday night so if either side does make it deep into enemy territory they may have to settle for a field goal.

The Rams boast one of the top kickers in the league in Greg Zuerlein and 11 of his 17 field goals this season have come in the first half. The Bears have had kicking problems for a while now but their incumbent kicker Eddy Pineiro has connected on 12 FGs with eight of those coming within the first 30 minutes. We like the first score of the game to be a field goal.

PICK: First Score Field Goal (+110)

FIRST HALF BET

The scoring woes for both teams continue throughout the first half, with Chicago putting up 8.1 ppg in the first 30 minutes, while L.A. scores 10.7.

The Bears have looked absolutely putrid on offense this year and there is already plenty of talk that quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, the 3rd pick overall in the 2017 draft, will be replaced by next year. Trubisky is coming off arguably his best game of the season but when you consider that he threw for just 173 yards in that contest – against a terrible Lions pass defense – you realize just how ineffective he has been.

The Rams have the first overall pick in the 2016 draft under center, but Jared Goff hasn’t been much better than Trubisky in 2019. Goff has completed just 60.3 percent of his passes while throwing nine interceptions and he seems to fall apart every time he faces pressure. And rest assured Khalil Mack and Chicago will be bringing the pressure.

With Chicago holding opponents to just 7.4 ppg in the first half (fourth-best in the league) and the Rams holding opponents to 9.8 ppg (7th best), take the 1H Under.

PICK: First half Under 20

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

There’s no question Trubisky has been bad but part of the blame for his shortcomings can be placed on the Bears offensive line which has allowed 27 sacks this season. They also had to shut down their best blocker, guard Kyle Long, for the season at the beginning of October. That’s bad news against a Rams pass rush that has generated 13 sacks over the last three games and is led by the best interior pass rusher in the league in Aaron Donald.

A large part of the Rams’ success last year was due to their offensive line but that unit has taken a step back this year. Despite only giving up 1.8 sacks per game they’ve given up a fair bit of pressure and will have to deal with that fierce Bears pass rush we mentioned previously. Donald and Mack have both had quiet seasons by their own lofty standards but both could be due for a breakout game in primetime. We like the Over 4.5 on the sack total.

PICK: Over 4.5 Sacks (-120)

FULL GAME TOTAL

OK, we’ve been picking on the starting QBs enough, time to take potshots at the rest of the offensive players in this game. After all, when you rank 21st (Los Angeles) and 26th (Chicago) in the league in offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders, the problems go beyond the signal-callers.

The Bears have few offensive weapons and one of their only bright spots, rookie running back David Montgomery will be a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Even if Montgomery plays, a nicked up RB that averages 3.6 yards per carry probably isn’t going to do much against a Rams D that holds opponents to just 3.3 yards per rush.

The Rams have an excellent trio of wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Roberts Woods and Brandin Cooks. However, Cooks is expected to miss Sunday’s game as he recovers from a concussion and L.A.’s run game has been largely ineffective which has made their offense one-dimensional. Injuries to right tackle Rob Havenstein and center Brian Allen have also decimated the Rams offensive line to the point where they are starting Austin Corbett (who wasn’t even good enough to start on the Cleveland Browns god-awful O-line).

As bad as both teams have been on offense, they’ve been excellent on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams rank fourth in the league in defensive DVOA, while the Bears are in fifth place.

The Rams have cashed in on the Under in each of their last four games while the Bears have hit the Under in their previous three contests. Take the Under again.

PICK: Under 40

FULL GAME SIDE

Both of these teams entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations but have failed to live up to them. The Bears are 1-4 SU and ATS over their last five games. Their only win in the span was a 20-13 victory last week against the Lions who had to start back up QB Jeff Driskel.

The Rams are coming off a 12-17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their offense was actually even worse than that score suggests, with the Rams defense scoring nine points off a Dante Fowler fumble return TD and an Aaron Donald safety.

The Bears allow just 17.4 ppg and that’s including the one game where they got destroyed by the Saints who scored 36 points. Take away that outlier and they give up just 15.1 ppg. A matter of fact other than that contest, all of the Bears’ losses have been very close. They lost by a single point to the Chargers, three points to the Raiders, were down five points to the Eagles before a last-minute field goal and trailed the Packers by just four points until a late fourth-quarter FG.

Six points is too much to spot a very strong Bears defense. Especially against a St. Louis offense that turns the ball over 1.8 times per game and seems to have lost the balance and explosiveness that made them so successful last season. Take Chicago and the points.

PICK: Chicago +6

Sack it to me with this prop, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 15

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Another brilliant Lamar Jackson performance is in the books, so we turn our attention to Sunday, where he break down our favorite bets for Week 15. From pointspreads and totals, to derivative markets and player props, we analyze all the angles to give you an edge on your NFL bets.

SACK IT TO ME

Another week and another bet against Kyle Allen getting sacked into oblivion. The Carolina quarterback has been sacked 21 times over his last four games and has been taken down on average of four times a game over his 11 starts.

The Seattle Seahawks have an even worse pressure rate than the Panthers, allowing opposing defenses to pressure Russell Wilson at a 36-percent rate which is the third-worst in the league.

Allen is 4-0 O/U on sacks totals of 5.5 in his last four games and we hope the trend continues into Week 16. We are riding the Over 5.5 sacks on the Seahawks/Panthers matchup for Sunday afternoon.

A SWIFT KICK TO ALDRICK

The windiest conditions this Sunday belong to MetLife Stadium. The Dolphins and Giants will see wind speeds of 13.3 miles per hour on Sunday which could definitely disrupt each teams’ kicking game.

The Giants sit in dead-last in field goals attempted per game at 1.2 and their kicker, Aldrick Rosas is converting just 71 percent of his kicks with a long of 45 yards.

The Dolphins are attempting 1.8 field goals a game (23rd) and converting kicks at a 73-percent rate. They did, however, kick eight field goals last week and made seven which is more than half of Rosas’ season total of 15 attempts.

We like the Dolphins to kick the longest field goal (-130) and wouldn’t mind the Under 45.5 yards for the longest field goal scored.

LOCK PICKING

Last week, we won some money on Tom Brady’s interception to the Kansas City Chiefs. K.C. has been picking off opposing QBs at will of late, forcing seven INTs in its last three games (Rivers 4, Carr 2, Brady 1). This week, they get Denver rookie QB Drew Lock who has looked good out of the gates but has also thrown an interception in each of his two starts.

Since Week 12, the Chiefs’ opponents are averaging nearly 40 passes a game which could give Lock lots of opportunities to turn it over in through the air in what will be his first divisional road game. We actually like what Lock has done which is win straight up at +320 and at +175 in back-to-back weeks, but we think rookies will make mistakes at Arrowhead.

Take the Over 0.5 Drew Lock interceptions (-200). If you that is too juicy for your liking, add Kyle Allen Over 0.5 INTs for a -105 payout if your book lets you parlay player props.

GIVE IT AWAY

Last week, away favorites went 4-1 ATS pushing their monthly total to 17-9 (65%). On the year, road chalk has hit at 53%. This week, the New England Patriots (-9.5 @ CIN), Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5 @ WSH), Seattle Seahawks (-6.5 @ CAR), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 @ DET), Cleveland Browns (-3 @ ARZ), Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 @ LAC) and the Los Angeles Rams (-1.5 @ DAL) round out the list of road favorites.

Of these matchups, we are more confident with the Buccaneers. Tampa has the best run defense in the league and should stuff Detroit running back Bo Scarborough who is averaging nearly 20 carries a game since Week 12. The Bucs have the best chance to win if they force David Blough and his 38.3 QBR to keep up with Jameis Winston through the air.

Tampa has a great chance to cover 3.5 points against a Bottom-10 defense and an offense that gained just 231 yards last week. Ride the away favorites trend and take the Buccaneers -3.5.

OF MOSTERT AND MEN

San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert has separated himself with the 49ers RBBC and has been given the most opportunities of late. Niners coach Kyle Shannahan has said the RB has deserved the extra attention in the offense as Mostert has four touchdowns in his last three games.

Mostert saw 40 of his team’s 63 offensive snaps and had the only two RB red zone carries last week. This also comes on the heels of him seeing 74 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 13. This week the Monster will face a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta rush defense that doesn’t have anything to play for.

We are backing Mostert to score a rushing TD for the fourth straight game.

Complete 2019-20 college football bowl schedule: Matchup dates and odds for every game

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It’s December, which means it’s everyone’s favorite time of the year: college football bowl season! The college football regular season might be over, but the FBS bowl season will keep NCAAF bettors well-fed during the winter holidays. The main course will be the two games in the College Football Playoff involving LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma, but there are 37 other bowl games to whet your appetite for college football betting action.

Here’s a quick look at all the matchups, dates, times, locations, betting odds for all the bowl games:

DEC. 20

MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL

Buffalo Bulls vs Charlotte 49ers
Location: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Time/TV: 2:00 PM ET, ESPN

TROPICAL SMOOTHIE CAFE FRISCO BOWL

Utah State Aggies vs Kent State Golden Flashes
Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2

DEC. 21

NEW MEXICO BOWL

Central Michigan Chippewas vs San Diego State Aztecs
Location:
Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Time/TV: 2 PM ET, ESPN

CURE BOWL

Liberty Flames vs Georgia Southern Eagles
Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: 2:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network

CHERIBUNDI BOCA RATON BOWL

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Florida Atlantic Owls
Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
Time/TV: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

CAMELLIA BOWL

Florida International vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Location: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
Time/TV: 5:30 PM ET, ESPN

MITSUBISHI MOTORS LAS VEGAS BOWL

(19) Boise State Broncos vs Washington Huskies
Location: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ABC

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL

(20) Appalachian State Mountaineers vs UAB Blazers
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: 9 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 23

BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL

UCF Knights vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Time/TV: 2:30 PM ET, ESPN

SOFI HAWAII BOWL

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs BYU Cougars
Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 26

WALK-ON’S INDEPENDENCE BOWL

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Miami Hurricanes
Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, ESPN

QUICK LANE BOWL

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Eastern Michigan Eagles
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 27

MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHROP GRUMMAN

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Temple Owls
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Time/TV: Noon ET, ESPN

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL

Michigan State Spartans vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Time/TV: 3:20 PM ET, ESPN

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOOR TEXAS BOWL

(25) Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Texas A&M Aggies
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Time/TV: 6:45 PM ET, ESPN

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL

(22) USC Trojans vs (16) Iowa Hawkeyes
Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, Fox Sports 1

CHEEZ-IT BOWL

Air Force Falcons vs Washington State Cougars
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Time/TV: 10:15 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 28

CAMPING WORLD BOWL

(15) Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Iowa State Cyclones
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Noon ET, ABC

GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC

(17) Memphis Tigers vs (10) Penn State Nittany Lions
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Time/TV: Noon ET, ESPN

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL

(4) Oklahoma Sooners vs (1) LSU Tigers
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, ESPN

PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL

(2) Ohio State Buckeyes vs (3) Clemson Tigers
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 30

SERVPRO FIRST RESPONDER BOWL

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Western Michigan Broncos
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dalla, Texas
Time/TV: 12:30 PM ET, ESPN

FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Louisville Cardinals
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, ESPN

REDBOX BOWL

California Golden Bears vs Illinois Fighting Illini
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, Fox

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL

(9) Florida Gators vs (24) Virginia Cavaliers
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 31

BELK BOWL

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Kentucky Wildcats
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Time/TV: Noon ET, ESPN

TONY THE TIGER SUN BOWL

Florida State Seminoles vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Location: Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas
Time/TV: 2 PM ET, CBS

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL

(23) Navy Midshipmen vs Kansas State Wildcats
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
Time/TV: 3:45 PM ET, ESPN

NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL

Wyoming Cowboys vs Georgia State Panthers
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona
Time/TV: 4:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network

VALERO ALAMO BOWL

(11) Utah Utes vs Texas Longhorns
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 1

VRBO CITRUS BOWL

(14) Michigan Wolverines vs (13) Alabama Crimson Tide
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: 1 PM ET, ABC

OUTBACK BOWL

(18) Minnesota Golden Gophers vs (12) Auburn Tigers
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Time/TV: 1 PM ET, ESPN

ROSE BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTAL

(8) Wisconsin Badgers vs (6) Oregon Ducks
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Time/TV: 5 PM ET, ESPN

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL

(7) Baylor Bears vs (5) Georgia Bulldogs
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: 8:45 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 2

TICKETSMARTER BIRMINGHAM BOWL

Boston College Eagles vs (21) Cincinnati Bearcats
Location: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
Time/TV: 3 PM ET, ESPN

TAXSLAYER GATORBOWL

Indiana Hoosiers vs Tennessee Volunteers
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Time/TV: 7 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 3

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL

Ohio Bobcats vs Nevada Wolf Pack
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 4

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Tulane Green Wave
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Time/TV: 11:30 AM ET, ESPN

JAN. 6

LENDINGTREE BOWL

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs Miami (OH) RedHawks
Location: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN