Points of Interest: NFL Week 10 Over/Under picks and predictions

Leave a comment

We’re officially past the halfway point of 2019, and Week 9 showed us we still don’t know as much as we’d like to think. I’m sure some people were on the Patriots not being as good as their record would indicate (we’d talked about it a few times in this column) but I don’t think anyone saw the Chargers completely shutting down Aaron Rodgers and company.

So how do we adjust based on what we saw in Week 9? I’m going to stick with the boring answer: season-to-date stats tend to be much better predictors of future performance than any single game. We adjust our expectations a little, but remember that outlier performances are called “outliers” for a reason. On to the picks:

L.A. RAMS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3.5, 44)

The Rams come off their bye but will be without Brandin Cooks for at least Week 10. That’s not good news for an offense that was already struggling. The Rams have been able to put up points against some weaker defenses, but still sit just 17th by EPA and have had prolonged struggles moving the ball as defenses have seemingly caught up to Sean McVay’s scheme.

This season, it’s been the defense keeping them afloat as much as the offense, and the addition of Jalen Ramsey can only help. The Rams sit 8th by defensive EPA, 6th by yards per play and 3rd overall in yards per carry against, giving up just 3.6 yards per run. That’s a recipe for success against a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers team.

Rudolph has been solid but completely unwilling to push the ball downfield. He sits last among starting QBs averaging just 4 air yards per completion (per Next Gen Stats) and was a checkdown machine Week 9 completing 13(!!!) passes to Jaylen Samuels out of the backfield. With the Rams shutting down the run and no downfield attack, it should be a long day for the Steelers offense.

Add in a resurgent Steelers defense (4th by EPA) and the Rams struggles on offense and we’ve got an Under we might not have predicted coming into the season.

PREDICTION: Under 44

BUFFALO BILLS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3, 40)

It’s not easy being a Bills fan, but how about those Cleveland Browns? This was supposed to be the year. All the pieces were in place, but what was supposed to be a great offense sits 29th by EPA. Now they get what looks to be a tough test in the 3rd ranked Bills defense, but I see light at the end of the tunnel for the hapless Browns.

That Bills D has looked very beatable the last few weeks, particularly against the run. They’ve given up more than 100 yards rushing in four straight games and 4.6 yards per carry on the season. Cue a big game for Nick Chubb, who sits fourth in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage and has looked excellent all season.

It also helps the Over case that the Browns D is giving up more than 25 ppg and allowing close to 5 yards per carry this season. With Devin Singletary looking like he’s finally usurped Frank Gore’s hold on the backfield, a healthy John Brown giving the Bills a true #1 wide receiver and Josh Allen making big plays (positive and negative), the Bills should do more than their share to push this one past 40.

PREDICTION: Over 40

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5, 47)

Remember early in the year when the Packers D looked great? Turns out it might have just been the Bears offense. The Packers are giving up close to 26ppg since Week 3 and now sit 20th by EPA after their strong start to the season. The Panthers have had some rough outings of their own recently, after getting crushed by the 49ers and making Ryan Tannehill and co. look like a functional NFL offense last week.

On the offensive side, Christian McCaffrey ranks first in the NFL in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns, and Kyle Allen has been good enough filling in for Cam Newton. Despite the Packers lackluster week 9 performance, they still sit 7th in the NFL by offensive EPA and Aaron Rodgers, despite some mediocre stretches, looks back to his former self. This one could easily turn into a shootout.

PREDICTION: Over 47

Week 9: 1-2
Season to date: 12-15

Sack it to me with this prop, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 15

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Another brilliant Lamar Jackson performance is in the books, so we turn our attention to Sunday, where he break down our favorite bets for Week 15. From pointspreads and totals, to derivative markets and player props, we analyze all the angles to give you an edge on your NFL bets.

SACK IT TO ME

Another week and another bet against Kyle Allen getting sacked into oblivion. The Carolina quarterback has been sacked 21 times over his last four games and has been taken down on average of four times a game over his 11 starts.

The Seattle Seahawks have an even worse pressure rate than the Panthers, allowing opposing defenses to pressure Russell Wilson at a 36-percent rate which is the third-worst in the league.

Allen is 4-0 O/U on sacks totals of 5.5 in his last four games and we hope the trend continues into Week 16. We are riding the Over 5.5 sacks on the Seahawks/Panthers matchup for Sunday afternoon.

A SWIFT KICK TO ALDRICK

The windiest conditions this Sunday belong to MetLife Stadium. The Dolphins and Giants will see wind speeds of 13.3 miles per hour on Sunday which could definitely disrupt each teams’ kicking game.

The Giants sit in dead-last in field goals attempted per game at 1.2 and their kicker, Aldrick Rosas is converting just 71 percent of his kicks with a long of 45 yards.

The Dolphins are attempting 1.8 field goals a game (23rd) and converting kicks at a 73-percent rate. They did, however, kick eight field goals last week and made seven which is more than half of Rosas’ season total of 15 attempts.

We like the Dolphins to kick the longest field goal (-130) and wouldn’t mind the Under 45.5 yards for the longest field goal scored.

LOCK PICKING

Last week, we won some money on Tom Brady’s interception to the Kansas City Chiefs. K.C. has been picking off opposing QBs at will of late, forcing seven INTs in its last three games (Rivers 4, Carr 2, Brady 1). This week, they get Denver rookie QB Drew Lock who has looked good out of the gates but has also thrown an interception in each of his two starts.

Since Week 12, the Chiefs’ opponents are averaging nearly 40 passes a game which could give Lock lots of opportunities to turn it over in through the air in what will be his first divisional road game. We actually like what Lock has done which is win straight up at +320 and at +175 in back-to-back weeks, but we think rookies will make mistakes at Arrowhead.

Take the Over 0.5 Drew Lock interceptions (-200). If you that is too juicy for your liking, add Kyle Allen Over 0.5 INTs for a -105 payout if your book lets you parlay player props.

GIVE IT AWAY

Last week, away favorites went 4-1 ATS pushing their monthly total to 17-9 (65%). On the year, road chalk has hit at 53%. This week, the New England Patriots (-9.5 @ CIN), Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5 @ WSH), Seattle Seahawks (-6.5 @ CAR), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 @ DET), Cleveland Browns (-3 @ ARZ), Minnesota Vikings (-2.5 @ LAC) and the Los Angeles Rams (-1.5 @ DAL) round out the list of road favorites.

Of these matchups, we are more confident with the Buccaneers. Tampa has the best run defense in the league and should stuff Detroit running back Bo Scarborough who is averaging nearly 20 carries a game since Week 12. The Bucs have the best chance to win if they force David Blough and his 38.3 QBR to keep up with Jameis Winston through the air.

Tampa has a great chance to cover 3.5 points against a Bottom-10 defense and an offense that gained just 231 yards last week. Ride the away favorites trend and take the Buccaneers -3.5.

OF MOSTERT AND MEN

San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert has separated himself with the 49ers RBBC and has been given the most opportunities of late. Niners coach Kyle Shannahan has said the RB has deserved the extra attention in the offense as Mostert has four touchdowns in his last three games.

Mostert saw 40 of his team’s 63 offensive snaps and had the only two RB red zone carries last week. This also comes on the heels of him seeing 74 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 13. This week the Monster will face a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta rush defense that doesn’t have anything to play for.

We are backing Mostert to score a rushing TD for the fourth straight game.

Complete 2019-20 college football bowl schedule: Matchup dates and odds for every game

AP Photo
Leave a comment

It’s December, which means it’s everyone’s favorite time of the year: college football bowl season! The college football regular season might be over, but the FBS bowl season will keep NCAAF bettors well-fed during the winter holidays. The main course will be the two games in the College Football Playoff involving LSU, Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma, but there are 37 other bowl games to whet your appetite for college football betting action.

Here’s a quick look at all the matchups, dates, times, locations, betting odds for all the bowl games:

DEC. 20

MAKERS WANTED BAHAMAS BOWL

Buffalo Bulls vs Charlotte 49ers
Location: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Time/TV: 2:00 PM ET, ESPN

TROPICAL SMOOTHIE CAFE FRISCO BOWL

Utah State Aggies vs Kent State Golden Flashes
Location: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2

DEC. 21

NEW MEXICO BOWL

Central Michigan Chippewas vs San Diego State Aztecs
Location:
Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Time/TV: 2 PM ET, ESPN

CURE BOWL

Liberty Flames vs Georgia Southern Eagles
Location: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: 2:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network

CHERIBUNDI BOCA RATON BOWL

Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Florida Atlantic Owls
Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
Time/TV: 3:30 PM ET, ABC

CAMELLIA BOWL

Florida International vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
Location: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
Time/TV: 5:30 PM ET, ESPN

MITSUBISHI MOTORS LAS VEGAS BOWL

(19) Boise State Broncos vs Washington Huskies
Location: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ABC

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL

(20) Appalachian State Mountaineers vs UAB Blazers
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: 9 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 23

BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL

UCF Knights vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Time/TV: 2:30 PM ET, ESPN

SOFI HAWAII BOWL

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs BYU Cougars
Location: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 26

WALK-ON’S INDEPENDENCE BOWL

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Miami Hurricanes
Location: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, ESPN

QUICK LANE BOWL

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Eastern Michigan Eagles
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 27

MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHROP GRUMMAN

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Temple Owls
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Time/TV: Noon ET, ESPN

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL

Michigan State Spartans vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
Time/TV: 3:20 PM ET, ESPN

ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOOR TEXAS BOWL

(25) Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Texas A&M Aggies
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Time/TV: 6:45 PM ET, ESPN

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL

(22) USC Trojans vs (16) Iowa Hawkeyes
Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, Fox Sports 1

CHEEZ-IT BOWL

Air Force Falcons vs Washington State Cougars
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Time/TV: 10:15 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 28

CAMPING WORLD BOWL

(15) Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Iowa State Cyclones
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Noon ET, ABC

GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC

(17) Memphis Tigers vs (10) Penn State Nittany Lions
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Time/TV: Noon ET, ESPN

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL

(4) Oklahoma Sooners vs (1) LSU Tigers
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, ESPN

PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL

(2) Ohio State Buckeyes vs (3) Clemson Tigers
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 30

SERVPRO FIRST RESPONDER BOWL

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Western Michigan Broncos
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dalla, Texas
Time/TV: 12:30 PM ET, ESPN

FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Louisville Cardinals
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, ESPN

REDBOX BOWL

California Golden Bears vs Illinois Fighting Illini
Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Time/TV: 4 PM ET, Fox

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL

(9) Florida Gators vs (24) Virginia Cavaliers
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Time/TV: 8 PM ET, ESPN

DEC. 31

BELK BOWL

Virginia Tech Hokies vs Kentucky Wildcats
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Time/TV: Noon ET, ESPN

TONY THE TIGER SUN BOWL

Florida State Seminoles vs Arizona State Sun Devils
Location: Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas
Time/TV: 2 PM ET, CBS

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL

(23) Navy Midshipmen vs Kansas State Wildcats
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
Time/TV: 3:45 PM ET, ESPN

NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL

Wyoming Cowboys vs Georgia State Panthers
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona
Time/TV: 4:30 PM ET, CBS Sports Network

VALERO ALAMO BOWL

(11) Utah Utes vs Texas Longhorns
Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 1

VRBO CITRUS BOWL

(14) Michigan Wolverines vs (13) Alabama Crimson Tide
Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: 1 PM ET, ABC

OUTBACK BOWL

(18) Minnesota Golden Gophers vs (12) Auburn Tigers
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Time/TV: 1 PM ET, ESPN

ROSE BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTAL

(8) Wisconsin Badgers vs (6) Oregon Ducks
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Time/TV: 5 PM ET, ESPN

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL

(7) Baylor Bears vs (5) Georgia Bulldogs
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: 8:45 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 2

TICKETSMARTER BIRMINGHAM BOWL

Boston College Eagles vs (21) Cincinnati Bearcats
Location: Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
Time/TV: 3 PM ET, ESPN

TAXSLAYER GATORBOWL

Indiana Hoosiers vs Tennessee Volunteers
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Time/TV: 7 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 3

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL

Ohio Bobcats vs Nevada Wolf Pack
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: 3:30 PM ET, ESPN

JAN. 4

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Tulane Green Wave
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Time/TV: 11:30 AM ET, ESPN

JAN. 6

LENDINGTREE BOWL

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs Miami (OH) RedHawks
Location: Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET, ESPN