Points of Interest: NFL Week 10 Over/Under picks and predictions

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We’re officially past the halfway point of 2019, and Week 9 showed us we still don’t know as much as we’d like to think. I’m sure some people were on the Patriots not being as good as their record would indicate (we’d talked about it a few times in this column) but I don’t think anyone saw the Chargers completely shutting down Aaron Rodgers and company.

So how do we adjust based on what we saw in Week 9? I’m going to stick with the boring answer: season-to-date stats tend to be much better predictors of future performance than any single game. We adjust our expectations a little, but remember that outlier performances are called “outliers” for a reason. On to the picks:

L.A. RAMS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3.5, 44)

The Rams come off their bye but will be without Brandin Cooks for at least Week 10. That’s not good news for an offense that was already struggling. The Rams have been able to put up points against some weaker defenses, but still sit just 17th by EPA and have had prolonged struggles moving the ball as defenses have seemingly caught up to Sean McVay’s scheme.

This season, it’s been the defense keeping them afloat as much as the offense, and the addition of Jalen Ramsey can only help. The Rams sit 8th by defensive EPA, 6th by yards per play and 3rd overall in yards per carry against, giving up just 3.6 yards per run. That’s a recipe for success against a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers team.

Rudolph has been solid but completely unwilling to push the ball downfield. He sits last among starting QBs averaging just 4 air yards per completion (per Next Gen Stats) and was a checkdown machine Week 9 completing 13(!!!) passes to Jaylen Samuels out of the backfield. With the Rams shutting down the run and no downfield attack, it should be a long day for the Steelers offense.

Add in a resurgent Steelers defense (4th by EPA) and the Rams struggles on offense and we’ve got an Under we might not have predicted coming into the season.

PREDICTION: Under 44

BUFFALO BILLS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3, 40)

It’s not easy being a Bills fan, but how about those Cleveland Browns? This was supposed to be the year. All the pieces were in place, but what was supposed to be a great offense sits 29th by EPA. Now they get what looks to be a tough test in the 3rd ranked Bills defense, but I see light at the end of the tunnel for the hapless Browns.

That Bills D has looked very beatable the last few weeks, particularly against the run. They’ve given up more than 100 yards rushing in four straight games and 4.6 yards per carry on the season. Cue a big game for Nick Chubb, who sits fourth in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage and has looked excellent all season.

It also helps the Over case that the Browns D is giving up more than 25 ppg and allowing close to 5 yards per carry this season. With Devin Singletary looking like he’s finally usurped Frank Gore’s hold on the backfield, a healthy John Brown giving the Bills a true #1 wide receiver and Josh Allen making big plays (positive and negative), the Bills should do more than their share to push this one past 40.

PREDICTION: Over 40

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5, 47)

Remember early in the year when the Packers D looked great? Turns out it might have just been the Bears offense. The Packers are giving up close to 26ppg since Week 3 and now sit 20th by EPA after their strong start to the season. The Panthers have had some rough outings of their own recently, after getting crushed by the 49ers and making Ryan Tannehill and co. look like a functional NFL offense last week.

On the offensive side, Christian McCaffrey ranks first in the NFL in yards from scrimmage and touchdowns, and Kyle Allen has been good enough filling in for Cam Newton. Despite the Packers lackluster week 9 performance, they still sit 7th in the NFL by offensive EPA and Aaron Rodgers, despite some mediocre stretches, looks back to his former self. This one could easily turn into a shootout.

PREDICTION: Over 47

Week 9: 1-2
Season to date: 12-15

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook