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Chase Young out for Ohio State, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 11

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Ohio State pass rusher Chase Young, arguably the top defensive player in the country, has been suspended indefinitely. We look into how this affects the NCAA Title and Heisman Trophy futures odds, while also breaking down the odds with our best bets for two college football matchups tonight and a pair of contests on Saturday.  **video

CHASE YOUNG SUSPENDED INDEFINITELY

Chase Young will not play in Ohio State’s game versus Maryland on Saturday. The details of the suspension are still ongoing, with the report issued from the school only describing it as an NCAA issue from 2018. But with no timetable set for his return expect the NCAA Championship futures odds to adjust with the Buckeyes at +250 prior to the news. Young was arguably the top defensive player in the country (and maybe the best player overall) with 13.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss through the Buckeyes first eight games of the season.

Ohio State was a 43.5-point favorite at home against Maryland this week and while Young’s absence might not make much of a difference to that line, expect their title odds to shift and don’t be surprised if his Heisman odds (+800) come off the board entirely. On the flip side, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and running back J.K. Dobbins could see their own Heisman odds improve if they carry the Buckeyes in Young’s absence.

The Buckeyes defense has been incredible this season and has more than just Young, but no unit can lose a player of Young’s caliber and not be affected. With Maryland averaging just 8.5 ppg over their last two games and getting shut out by Penn State earlier this season, they will be hard-pressed to go Over their team total of 10.5 on Saturday, even with Young out. But if Young misses the Buckeyes crucial game against unbeaten PSU next week, the line will certainly be adjusted.

HEISMAN ODDS FROM THE SUPERBOOK AT WESTGATE (AS OF NOV 4)

Joe Burrow +120
Jalen Hurts +250
Tua Tagovailoa +300
Chase Young +800
Justin Fields +1,200
J.K. Dobbins +4,000
Justin Herbert +4,000
Chuba Hubbard +4,000

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS FROM THE SUPERBOOK AT WESTGATE (AS OF NOV 4)

ALABAMA +200
OHIO STATE +250
CLEMSON +350
LSU +500
GEORGIA +1,200

NOT COVERING THE SPREAD

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane won’t be competing in a bowl game this year, but it won’t be for lack of effort. The Golden Hurricane seek their first American Athletic Conference win of 2019 following several close calls as they tangle with the visiting Central Florida Knights on Friday. Tulsa has narrow losses to Memphis and SMU on its resume this season, and four of its five covers have come against teams presently ranked in the College Football Playoff. UCF, on the other hand, has gone just 1-5 ATS in its past six games overall and continues to deal with injuries among its running back corps.

With Tulsa enjoying the home-field edge and boasting a top-40 pass defense despite its poor record, we like the hosts and the points against a Knights team that has been an ATS disappointment of late.

UPSET BREWING?

At the beginning of the season, the thought of Oregon State knocking off the Washington Huskies would have been absurd. But that’s not the case heading into their Friday night encounter at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, with the Beavers sitting ahead of the Huskies in the conference standings. And Oregon State could be a major pain for Washington if it can continue being successful on third downs, coming into this one with the 12th-highest conversion rate in the country (49.1 percent). The Huskies are well down the list by comparison, ranking 101st in the nation at 35.7 percent.

Extending drives at a high rate should give the Beavers enough added possession time to make good on the home cover – and if you’re feeling particularly brave, you could take Oregon State to win this one outright.

MORE LIKE DEAD-ZONE

The Georgia Tech offensive revolution has been a major disappointment as the Yellow Jackets continue playing out the string Saturday against host Virginia. Having done away with its run-heavy attack in favor of more balance, Georgia Tech has struggled mightily to produce points – particularly in the red zone, where the Yellow Jackets rank dead last in conversion rate (55.6 percent) while having made just 18 trips inside the opponents’ 20-yard line to date. Virginia has held opponents to a 78.3-percent success rate inside the red zone while allowing just 23 visits all season.

The Cavaliers haven’t been as defensively stout as they have in recent years, but they still boast one of the most formidable defenses in the nation – and should have no trouble keeping Georgia Tech below its team point total.

A SPECIAL PROP BET

The Michigan State Spartans have bigger things to worry about than the absence of their No. 1 receiver as they prepare to face the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday. In addition to being without Darrell Stewart Jr., who will miss the game with a leg injury, the Spartans are matching up with an Illini defense that comes in as the top-ranked unit in the nation in forced turnovers (22) and defensive touchdowns (five). The Illini had a pair of defensive scores in last week’s 38-10 drubbing of visiting Rutgers, and they’ve forced a whopping eight turnovers over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

With the Spartans having scored a pair of defensive TDs of their own – and both offenses expected to struggle this weekend – we like the defensive/special teams touchdown here.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

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It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)