Rolling with Rivers’ TD passes in primetime , and the NFL best bets you need to make in Week 10

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We get you primed for another exciting week of NFL betting by breaking down our favorite best on the board in Week 10, including sides, totals, props and more. Here are our favorite plays and pick predictions, including a go-to bet on Thursday’s AFC West war between the Chargers and Raiders.**video

MVP PATH GOES THROUGH SAN FRAN

The San Francisco 49ers stand as the only undefeated team in the league having won against QBs Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph in the last month and a half.

Out of all those signal callers, the more mobile Murray was the one whose offense put up 357 yards (the most San Francisco has allowed this year) and 19 first downs (the most allowed since Week 2). This Monday, the 49ers will start a tough schedule where they have to play three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in a month, starting with the league’s MVP frontrunner: Russell Wilson.

Wilson is coming into this matchup with a league-best passer rating of 118.2 and 22 touchdowns to one interception. The Seattle Seahawks QB will have to use his legs and elusiveness to breakdown the league’s best DVOA pass defense and aggressive pass rush.

Wilson will face a San Fran defense that plays zone more than nearly every other team in the league. Per Sharp Football, Wilson picks up 9.3 yards per attempt and has a 61-percent success versus zone defenses, compared to 6.7 YPA and 45 percent versus man coverage.

This is good news for the Seahawks receivers D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and Josh Gordon, who average six-foot-three and nearly 220 pounds. Look for Wilson to use that size advantage versus the smaller San Francisco secondary while also allowing Tyler Lockett to do what he does: 19 catches for 252 yards and two scores in his last two games.

San Francisco’s loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander is also a huge problem as he was ranked as the best coverage linebacker in the league per ProFootballFocus.

We like the Seahawks +6. They are also 3-1 ATS on the road this year with the only ATS loss being a 7-point win in Atlanta as 7.5-point chalk.

 

JONES EATS WITH THE LEAD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones started again last week and outperformed Peyton Barber for the second straight week.

In games where Jones receives at least 14 carries (three games), the RB is averaging 4.3 yards per carry with two TDs. The problem for Jones lies in the game flow. If Tampa Bay is playing from behind, then third-down back Dare Ogunbowale will get the majority of the snaps. With the 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals on deck for Sunday, the Bucs will have a much better shot at playing with the lead as 4.5-point home favorites.

The Cardinals sit 23rd in rush attempts against at 28 and are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. However, stay away from the Jones anytime TD prop as Arizona is tied for third-fewest rushing TDs allowed.

We like Jones’ total yards prop better than just rushing as he has been steadily chipping in one or two grabs a game and averaging 15.5 yards per reception. Take the Over on Jones’ total yards on any number below 82.

 

THURSDAY NIGHT AIR RAID

No team in the league has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Oakland Raiders. So far in 2019, Jon Gruden’s team is giving up 2.7 touchdowns through the air per game and is allowing a tasty 3.7 passing TDs a game over its last three.

This is great news for Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers, whose team is coming off a dominating performance versus Green Bay last week where Rivers tossed for 294 yards but no touchdown passes. Rivers has not been held to zero touchdowns in back-to-back games since December 2015 and has 45 TDs in 26 career games against the Raiders including three straight games of two or more versus his AFC West rivals.

We are jumping on the Rivers Over 1.5 TDs play for some Thursday Night Football action. 

SOMEONE HAS TO WIN THIS GAME

Just when things were getting exciting for the Giants as the offense was finally getting healthy, Sterling Shepard re-entered concussion protocol before Monday night’s game and now Evan Engram is dealing with a foot injury.

Having lost five straight games while averaging a league-worst 2.4 giveaways, things are looking bleak ahead of their game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

Speaking of turnovers, this game could easily feature half a dozen as the Jets are just as bad at keeping the ball, turning it over 3.3 times over their last three games. Despite all the poor quarterback play from both teams, playing on a short week won’t help the Giants get healthier versus a Jets team that just lost to the lowly Dolphins – an added motivation.

We’re grabbing the home dogs at +3 as it looks as if that line will move under that key number, with some markets already showing +2.5.

Running up the points with Rockets, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 12

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Are you ready for some more MAC-tion? Because there are two more games on the schedule Wednesday night. We break down the best bets for these games and take a look at the weekend ahead in college football – from sides and totals to props and everything in between.

ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night’s MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation’s No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they’ve been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.

MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU’s 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.

GILBERT  GETTING BACK

Kansas State’s premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week’s 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert’s return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.

WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn’t featured on the team’s depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn’t specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson’s favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

Too late to start fading the Fins, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 11

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This may require a double-take, but listen up. The Miami Dolphins have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of October. Yes, those Miami Dolphins. We break down the odds and let you know what bets we like in Week 11 of the NFL as we dive into sides, totals, props and more. 

STAYING HOT IN Q1

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN’T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5 now, as it may drop under this key number later in the week.