We get you primed for another exciting week of NFL betting by breaking down our favorite best on the board in Week 10, including sides, totals, props and more. Here are our favorite plays and pick predictions, including a go-to bet on Thursday’s AFC West war between the Chargers and Raiders.**video
MVP PATH GOES THROUGH SAN FRAN
The San Francisco 49ers stand as the only undefeated team in the league having won against QBs Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph in the last month and a half.
Out of all those signal callers, the more mobile Murray was the one whose offense put up 357 yards (the most San Francisco has allowed this year) and 19 first downs (the most allowed since Week 2). This Monday, the 49ers will start a tough schedule where they have to play three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in a month, starting with the league’s MVP frontrunner: Russell Wilson.
Wilson is coming into this matchup with a league-best passer rating of 118.2 and 22 touchdowns to one interception. The Seattle Seahawks QB will have to use his legs and elusiveness to breakdown the league’s best DVOA pass defense and aggressive pass rush.
Wilson will face a San Fran defense that plays zone more than nearly every other team in the league. Per Sharp Football, Wilson picks up 9.3 yards per attempt and has a 61-percent success versus zone defenses, compared to 6.7 YPA and 45 percent versus man coverage.
This is good news for the Seahawks receivers D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and Josh Gordon, who average six-foot-three and nearly 220 pounds. Look for Wilson to use that size advantage versus the smaller San Francisco secondary while also allowing Tyler Lockett to do what he does: 19 catches for 252 yards and two scores in his last two games.
San Francisco’s loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander is also a huge problem as he was ranked as the best coverage linebacker in the league per ProFootballFocus.
We like the Seahawks +6. They are also 3-1 ATS on the road this year with the only ATS loss being a 7-point win in Atlanta as 7.5-point chalk.
JONES EATS WITH THE LEAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones started again last week and outperformed Peyton Barber for the second straight week.
In games where Jones receives at least 14 carries (three games), the RB is averaging 4.3 yards per carry with two TDs. The problem for Jones lies in the game flow. If Tampa Bay is playing from behind, then third-down back Dare Ogunbowale will get the majority of the snaps. With the 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals on deck for Sunday, the Bucs will have a much better shot at playing with the lead as 4.5-point home favorites.
The Cardinals sit 23rd in rush attempts against at 28 and are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. However, stay away from the Jones anytime TD prop as Arizona is tied for third-fewest rushing TDs allowed.
We like Jones’ total yards prop better than just rushing as he has been steadily chipping in one or two grabs a game and averaging 15.5 yards per reception. Take the Over on Jones’ total yards on any number below 82.
THURSDAY NIGHT AIR RAID
No team in the league has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Oakland Raiders. So far in 2019, Jon Gruden’s team is giving up 2.7 touchdowns through the air per game and is allowing a tasty 3.7 passing TDs a game over its last three.
This is great news for Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers, whose team is coming off a dominating performance versus Green Bay last week where Rivers tossed for 294 yards but no touchdown passes. Rivers has not been held to zero touchdowns in back-to-back games since December 2015 and has 45 TDs in 26 career games against the Raiders including three straight games of two or more versus his AFC West rivals.
We are jumping on the Rivers Over 1.5 TDs play for some Thursday Night Football action.
SOMEONE HAS TO WIN THIS GAME
Just when things were getting exciting for the Giants as the offense was finally getting healthy, Sterling Shepard re-entered concussion protocol before Monday night’s game and now Evan Engram is dealing with a foot injury.
Having lost five straight games while averaging a league-worst 2.4 giveaways, things are looking bleak ahead of their game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
Speaking of turnovers, this game could easily feature half a dozen as the Jets are just as bad at keeping the ball, turning it over 3.3 times over their last three games. Despite all the poor quarterback play from both teams, playing on a short week won’t help the Giants get healthier versus a Jets team that just lost to the lowly Dolphins – an added motivation.
We’re grabbing the home dogs at +3 as it looks as if that line will move under that key number, with some markets already showing +2.5.
