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Best spot bets for the NFL Week 10 odds: Baltimore bettors in a bad situation

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With nine weeks of NFL season on the tires, teams can be even more susceptible to situational spots – AKA spots bets – in the backend of the schedule. Football bettors will want to give the calendar a once-over while handicapping the NFL odds, circling the possible letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots that could hold value.

Covers’ Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan does just that in NFL Week 10, giving his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact this Sunday’s outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+10. 45.5)

There are few bigger highs than taking a win from the Patriots. That’s where we find the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10, playing the downtrodden Cincinnati Bengals a week removed from putting the boots to Brady & Co.

Baltimore not only has to deal with that change in intensity – from battling an undefeated Super Bowl champ to facing an 0-8 Bengals teams starting rookie QB Ryan Finley – but takes a sour smack of a situational sandwich, walking into a possible lookahead spot as well, with a huge homestand against Houston in Week 11 (which could have playoff seeding implications).

The Ravens have shown a tendency to play down to opponents, going 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with a losing team, and are just 3-5 ATS on the year. Baltimore blew away Miami in Week 1, battled hard for a win in Seattle in Week 7, and upset New England at home last week. But the Ravens failed to cover versus the likes of Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and these very Bengals in Week 6.

 

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10.5, 44)

If any team was going to look past this week’s foe, the Colts have the best case. Indianapolis was biting its nails while waiting for word on QB Jacoby Brissett’s health after he suffered a knee injury last Sunday. Brissett looks like he avoided any serious damage but his status for Week 10’s home date versus Miami is still undetermined.

While he may be able to grit it out, the Colts might not need him to suit up to upend the Dolphins, and backup Brian Hoyer may get the nod. Even if Brissett does play, expect the team to protect any further injury as they plan for a big divisional matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11.

The Jaguars are coming off the bye week and making a move to the returning Nick Foles at QB, benching rookie passer and pop-culture phenomenon Gardner Minshew. Indianapolis will be playing it safe ahead of that divisional dance and brings a 0-5-1 ATS mark in its last six meetings with losing teams into a Week 10 game against one of the NFL’s worst.

SCHEDULE SPOT: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, 51)

It’s a pirate’s life for the Buccaneers, who have been out to sea for nearly 50 days before making port at Raymond James Stadium in Week 10. Tampa Bay is coming off a grueling stretch of games away from home, starting at L.A. in Week 4 and spanning a trip to London, England in Week 6, a bye in Week 7, and back-to-back controversial losses at Tennessee and Seattle the past two outings.

This matchup with the Cardinals is just Tampa Bay’s third true road game of the season, having lost the other two to San Francisco and the New York Giants. There’s a lot of motivation to get the football-starved Florida faithful a victory this Sunday and the home-field edge could be just what the Buccaneers need to get over the hump after four of their six losses were decided by a touchdown or less.

The Bucs could easily be taking a two-game winning streak into this matchup with Arizona, if not for some botched calls by the officials in Weeks 8 and 9. We saw the Oakland Raiders in a similar schedule spot in Week 9, returning home for the first time after a 49-day period with a bang: winning and covering as 2-point chalk over Detroit last Sunday.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

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It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)