Cowboys vs Giants NFL betting picks and predictions: Dallas will go deep on Monday Night Football

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We’ve got an NFC East battle on Monday Night Football as the Dallas Cowboys head to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants. The Cowboys are 4-3 and sitting at first place in the division after a 37-10 rout of Philadelphia, while the Giants are 2-6 and coming off a tough loss on the road in Detroit.

This game features two of the best running backs in the league with Ezekiel Elliot leading the way for the Cowboys while Saquon Barkley carries the offensive load for the Giants. However, the final score could have more to do with which side has the advantage in the passing game.

From the kickoff to the final whistle we break down the odds for this rivalry with our best bets and predictions. **video

DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (+6.5, 48 @ BETAMERICA)

QUICK HITTER

Besides Skip Bayless there aren’t many that consider Dak Prescott an elite quarterback, but the Giants defense might make him look one on Monday night. New York’s pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing a 70.2 completion percentage (29th in the league) and 8.5 yards per attempt (30th) to opposing QBs.

These teams tangled back in Week 1 and Prescott scorched the G-Men for 405 yards and four touchdowns throw the air. Expect the Cowboys to come out of the gate airing the ball out against a Giants team that allows 8.0 points per game in the opening quarter.

The Cowboys allow 5.4 first-quarter ppg which ranks 21st in the league, and that number has ballooned up to 9.3 ppg over their last three games. When you consider that the Cowboys allow opposing running backs 4.4 yards per carry and 43.8 receiving yards per game, and are going up against one of the best RBs in the league in Barkley, the Giants could move the chains early as well. Take the Over on the first-quarter total.

PICK: First quarter total Over 9.5 (-115)

FIRST HALF BET

The Giants are allowing a whopping 18.2 ppg in the first 30 minutes, the worst number in the NFL. The Cowboys put up 27 points in the first half against Philadelphia last week and scored three first-half touchdowns against the G-Men in their previous matchup.

While Prescott and the passing game destroyed the Giants in that encounter, Ezekiel Elliott was held in check to the tune of 53 rushing yards on 13 carries. But Elliot is simply too good to contain again. While many star running backs tend to get stronger as the game goes on, Elliot is actually more effective in the early going rushing for 49.1 rushing yards and 4.6 yards per carry before half time.

Back the Over on the Cowboys 1H team total.

PICK: First half team points Dallas Over 13.5 (-120)

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

Cowboys WR Amari Cooper is coming off 106 receiving yards last week against the Eagles and had an identical 106-yard performance in Week 1 against the Giants. Cooper is far and away Prescott’s go-to receiver and he’s been one of the best wideouts in the league since joining the Cowboys last season.

Cooper has now played 16 regular-season games with the Cowboys going back to last year and has 91 catches for 1,341 yards and 11 touchdowns over that span. According to Football Outsiders, the Giants have the third-worst defensive DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and they’ve been getting burned deep all year allowing 26 receptions of 20+ yards to opposing WRs.

With Cooper eighth in the league with 10 catches for more than 20 yards, back him to have a huge day and take the Over on his receiving yards.

PICK: Amari Cooper Over 82.5 receiving yards (-115)

FULL GAME TOTAL

Like any rookie QB, Giants first-rounder Daniel Jones makes his share of mistakes but he’s not afraid to attack downfield and should be oozing with confidence after his 322-yard four TD performance against the Lions last week. And for pretty much the first time this season Jones will have all his weapons at his disposal with Sterling Shepherd expected to be back in action alongside Golden Tate, Evan Engram, rookie speedster Darius Slayton and the monster that is Saquon Barkley.

New York should be able to put up some points against an inconsistent Cowboys defense that is ranked just 19th in the league in defensive DVOA. The Giants’ biggest worry will be on the defensive side of the ball where their stop-unit ranks 26th in DVOA and gave up 494 yards and 35 points to Dallas in Week 1. Take the Over.

PICK: Over 48 (-110)

FULL GAME SIDE

At first glance, this looks like a trap game. You’ve got a divisional rivalry with the home underdog finally looking healthy and their first-year signal-caller coming off a career game. But the Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams and have dominated NFC East foes recently, going 13-3 ATS in their previous 16 contests against divisional opponents.

The Giants are simply awful on the defensive side of the ball and won’t have the speed or athleticism to keep up with Dallas downfield. In addition, they have a troubling tendency to turn the ball over, with 2.4 giveaways per game which tied for the most in the league.

Dallas also has the top offense in the league on third downs, converting 51.9 percent of the time. And while their overall defense isn’t the best they are excellent on third downs, holding opponents to a conversion rate of 26.3 percent, the second-best rate after New England.

Don’t be surprised to see this one turn into a shoot-out but the G-Men simply don’t have the defense to slow the Cowboys down, and turning the ball over will prove costly when they’re in catch-up mode.

PICK: Dallas -6.5 (-110)

Running up the points with Rockets, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 12

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Are you ready for some more MAC-tion? Because there are two more games on the schedule Wednesday night. We break down the best bets for these games and take a look at the weekend ahead in college football – from sides and totals to props and everything in between.

ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night’s MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation’s No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they’ve been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.

MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU’s 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.

GILBERT  GETTING BACK

Kansas State’s premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week’s 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert’s return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.

WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn’t featured on the team’s depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn’t specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson’s favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

Too late to start fading the Fins, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 11

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This may require a double-take, but listen up. The Miami Dolphins have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of October. Yes, those Miami Dolphins. We break down the odds and let you know what bets we like in Week 11 of the NFL as we dive into sides, totals, props and more. 

STAYING HOT IN Q1

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN’T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5 now, as it may drop under this key number later in the week.