NFL Week 9 cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more

0 Comments

To play, or not to play? In NFL Week 9, that is the question surrounding quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas

Injury Impact

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Mahomes didn’t play in the Week 8 Sunday night game against Green Bay, while recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Matt Moore had a solid outing, but the Chiefs lost 31-24 as 5-point home underdogs. Friday, Mahomes was listed as questionable for a home tilt against the Vikings. The game has been off the board all week, pending some finality on Mahomes. “If he plays, the line will come out around Chiefs -2.5,” Osterman said. “If he’s out, it would be Vikings around -3.5.”

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: A calf injury will keep wideout T.Y. Hilton off the field at Pittsburgh. “That moved the line 1 point. He’s really the Colts’ only big-play weapon, so he means a little bit more than wide receiver on some other teams.” Indianapolis was at +1 Friday afternoon, on a line that spent the week bouncing between pick, -1 and +1.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Running back James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful against the Colts, meaning Jaylen Samuels – who missed the past two games with a knee issue – will shoulder the load. “Not much effect on the line. Samuels is not much of a drop-off from Conner.” The Steelers were 1-point favorites Friday.

DENVER BRONCOS: Quarterback Joe Flacco (neck) is on injured reserve and done for the year. That caused the SuperBook to move from Broncos -1 straight to Browns -2.5 on Monday. “The sharps didn’t beat us to the news. We were on the front end of that move,” Osterman said. “Flacco being out moved the game 3-3.5 points, and then the sharp bets moved it another point-and-a-half.” By early Friday, visiting Cleveland was at -4.5.

GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams, out the past month with a toe injury, is listed as questionable on the road against the Chargers, but it appears likely he’ll return. “Adams would be a half-point move if he is confirmed as playing.” The Packers were at -3.5 Friday night.

Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT BUFFALO: There’s a 40 percent chance of precipitation, with the wind blowing in the mid-teens, but The SuperBook isn’t concerned at this point. “No effect. We don’t see moves for wind unless it’s more than 25 mph, typically.” Buffalo is -10, with a low total of 36.

NEW YORK JETS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated in the Miami area on Sunday, with a 40 percent chance of rain. But again, no impact yet on the odds. “We won’t move for rain unless it’s actually raining the day of the game.” The Jets are -3 against the winless Dolphins, with a total of 42.5.

Pros vs. Joes

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE: This is a recurring theme with the Patriots. “Pros are all over the Ravens, and the public is all over the Patriots again.” The Patriots opened -5 for the Sunday night game, but that sharp play dropped New England to -3 by Thursday.

TAMPA BAY AT SEATTLE: The Seahawks opened -6 and dipped to -4 by early Friday, before ticking up to -4.5. “The Seahawks are a popular public side this week, but there has been a ton of sharp action on Tampa Bay.”

HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE: This AFC South clash opened pick, stretched to Texans -2.5, then backed off to Houston -1.5 by midweek. “The public likes the Texans this week. The sharp side is the Jaguars plus the points.”

Reverse Line Moves

GREEN BAY AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: “We opened Packers -4 and now we’re at -3.5 (even),” Osterman said Friday afternoon. The line actually got as low as Green Bay -2.5 at one point. “We’ve gotten a lot of Packers money, but the market is moving toward the Chargers.”

In addition, Osterman said all three of the Pros vs. Joes games listed above have seen reverse line movement.

Top Consensus Picks

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

0 Comments

Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

Getty Images
0 Comments

MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook