Using History to Handicap the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf

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If turf racing, top-class international competition, and longshot winners are all elements of horse racing that you find appealing, then your favorite race of the upcoming Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Santa Anita Park should surely be the Grade 1, $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf.

The 1 ½-mile turf race typically draws a large and competitive field featuring a handful of horses shipping in from Europe, making it a classic case of “America vs. the World” in a championship showdown.

Of course, handicapping a field filled with foreign runners is easier said than done, particularly when you consider that favorites have enjoyed a surprisingly poor streak of luck in recent editions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. With this in mind, we’ve taken a look at the history of the Longines Turf to uncover a few noteworthy tips and trends that can be used to help narrow down the list of contenders.

Let’s examine some of the key data to consider:

Don’t Count Out Deep Closers

While horses with a wide variety of running styles have been successful in recent editions of the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Highland Reel even went gate-to-wire in 2016), deep closers that rally from the back of the pack have enjoyed more success than one might expect. Conduit (2009), Magician (2013), and Found (2015) all rallied from at least 14 ½ lengths back after a half-mile to win, proving that with a proper setup (a fast pace helps), big late rallies can be successful in the Turf.

Year Winner Position after first 1/2-mile ½-mile & ¾-mile times

(course condition)

2018 Enable 6th by 5 lengths (13 starters) 49.11, 1:14.22 (good)
2017 Talismanic 5th by 3.5 lengths (13 starters) 48.33, 1:12.86 (firm)
2016 Highland Reel 1st by 2.5 lengths (12 starters) 48.00, 1:12.70 (firm)
2015 Found 7th by 26.75 length (12 starters) 48.38, 1:12.64 (good)
2014 Main Sequence 9th by 4 lengths (12 starters) 47.76, 1:11.15 (good)
2013 Magician 11th by 14.5 length (12 starters) 46.94, 1:10.67 (firm)
2012 Little Mike 3rd by 3.5 lengths (12 starters) 46.77, 1:10.80 (firm)
2011 St Nicholas Abbey 5th by 3 lengths (9 starters) 50.09, 1:14.67 (good)
2010 Dangerous Midge 2nd by 2 lengths (7 starters) 50.17, 1:15.91 (firm)
2009 Conduit 7th by 16 lengths (7 starters) 45.14, 1:09.24 (firm)

Favorites Haven’t Been Winning

Although plenty of well-bet horses have won the Breeders’ Cup, the race has not been kind to favorites in recent years. Since 2003, when High Chaparral and Johar (neither of them favored) finished in a dead-heat for victory, 15 of the 17 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners were not favored in the wagering. The lone exceptions were Conduit (0.90-1 in 2009) and Enable (0.80-1 in 2018); overall, the odds available on those 15 upset winners averaged about 9.50-1.

That said, you don’t want to entirely exclude favorites from your tickets. The betting choice has finished fourth or better for 11 consecutive years, so if you’ve been playing against the favorites entirely, you haven’t been cashing any superfecta tickets.

Bet Foreign-Bred Runners, Especially Irish-Breds

No country has dominated the Breeders’ Cup Turf as thoroughly as Ireland. Over the last 25 years, 13 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners have been bred in Ireland, with all but one of them shipping in from overseas to secure their Breeders’ Cup victory. Great Britain, France, and Germany have also produced winners of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and all told, 21 of the 36 Breeders’ Cup Turf winners were bred in Europe.

Foreign interests have also enjoyed Breeders’ Cup Turf success with horses bred in North America, and overall, 17 of the last 21 winners of the Turf were based overseas at the time of their Breeders’ Cup victory, leaving very few wins for the home team.

Much of Ireland’s success in the Breeders’ Cup Turf is owed to Ireland’s leading trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has won the race a record-setting six times (all with Irish-breds), including four of the last eight renewals. Furthermore, 13 of O’Brien’s 23 Breeders’ Cup Turf starters have finished in the top three, including seven of his last 12.

The record of Sir Michael Stoute is just as impressive with four wins and two seconds in the Turf from just 15 starters, including back-to-back wins with Conduit in 2008-09.

Repeat Winners Are Rare

The Breeders’ Cup Turf is a very competitive race, and it has been difficult for horses to win the race in back-to-back years. High Chaparral narrowly pulled off the feat in 2002-2003, and Conduit matched the achievement in 2008-2009, but over the last twenty years horses like Talismanic, Highland Reel, Found, Little Mike, St. Nicholas Abbey, Red Rocks, Better Talk Now, Buck’s Boy, and Chief Bearhart have fallen short in their attempts to win multiple editions of the race.

A Recent Victory Isn’t Critical

A major key to winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf is to peak in the championship event, not in your previous race. Seven of the last ten Breeders’ Cup Turf winners were actually beaten in their final prep run, often while facing tougher competition in the prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in France. Five of the last ten Breeders’ Cup Turf winners contested the Arc a few weeks prior, though only Enable managed to prevail in both races.

Conclusions

With defending champion Enable skipping the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Turf, the race figures to be wide-open, with U.S. star Bricks and Mortar looming as the possible favorite.

But history suggests we should still favor European runners, even in the absence of Enable. One to keep an eye on is Aidan O’Brien’s Irish-bred 3-year-old Anthony Van Dyck. Winner of the historic Grade 1 Investec Derby at Epsom, Anthony Van Dyck also matches the typical profile of a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner and even enters off a defeat, having finished third behind Magical in the 1 ¼-mile Grade 1 QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes on Sept. 14. The return to 1 ½ miles (the same distance as the Investec Derby) should enhance his chances – and take note, three of O’Brien’s six Breeders’ Cup Turf winners were 3-year-olds. (Note: Magical was originally going to be shipped to the U.S. for the Breeders’ Cup but developed an elevated temperature on Oct. 25 and will be retired, according to the Racing Post).

Watch NBC Sports’ coverage of the 2019 Breeders’ Cup starting with Future Stars Friday on Nov. 1 from 4-8 p.m. ET (NBCSN) and continuing with Championship Saturday on Nov. 2 from 3:30-9 p.m. ET (NBCSN until 8, NBC from 8-9). 

Unbeaten Aztecs to start hot, and the NCAA basketball best bets you need to make this weekend

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The San Diego State Aztecs will look to keep their perfect season going on Sunday, while Texas Tech and Kentucky tangle in a matchup between two Top-20 teams on Saturday night. Rohit Ponnaiya digs into the college basketball odds and brings you his favorite bets and predictions for the weekend.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The game of the night Friday will take place in the Big East as Marquette tangles with Butler. After falling 76-61 to Villanova on Tuesday (which made us a bit of money), Butler has now lost three straight games after beginning the season with a 15-1 record. In Butler’s last three games they’ve allowed 112.3 points per 100 possessions and a large reason for that is that they’ve been sending opposing teams to the line. Over that three game span they’ve given foes an average of 26.7 free throw attempts per game.

That’s bad news against a Marquette squad that has scored at least 82 points in each of it’s last three games and is led by the leading scorer in the country in Markus Howard. Howard has averaged 35 points per game over his last five contests and has averaged 12.5 FTA over his last two. As a team the Golden Eagles know how to get to the line, attempting 23.6 free throws per game, 18th highest in the country. We like the Over 64.5 on Marquette’s team total. 

EVERYTHING IS BIGGER IN TEXAS

Two Top-20 teams face off in the Lone Star State on Saturday as the Kentucky Wildcats travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech at 6:00 p.m ET. This matchup should get plenty of action with the Red Raiders coming off a Final Four finish while Kentucky is…well Kentucky.

Texas Tech is coming off a road loss against TCU but is 9-1 at home. Chris Beard’s Red Raiders are known for their defensive intensity and this year’s squad ranks 7th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rating system. That said, Kentucky ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency and 32nd in offensive efficiency (while Texas Tech ranks 97th on offense).

Kentucky has three guards (Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley and Tyrese Maxey) that love to apply pressure on opposing ball-handlers while also being able to create their own shot. With Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery, Calipari’s squad has a (pardon the pun) big edge in size and rebounding ability. And unlike past editions of the Wildcats, this team has plenty of veteran experience so don’t expect them to be rattled playing in hostile territory.

We’re expecting Texas Tech to have the chalk and backing UK as the likely underdog, but if public action makes the Wildcats the faves the value will be on the Red Raiders.

HOUSE OF THE RISING SUN DEVILS

It’s the battle of Arizona on Saturday night as the Arizona State Sun Devils host the Arizona Wildcats. These teams met up on January 4, with the Wildcats routing ASU by a score of 75-47. But don’t expect to see a repeat of that score with the Sun Devils now enjoying home-court advantage.

The Wildcats led by guard Nico Mannion and big man Zeke Nnaji are 13-5 but they have been very beatable when playing outside of Tucson. They’re 9-2 ATS at home but just 1-6 ATS on the road and at neutral sites. They have an average scoring margin of plus-26.6 ppg at home but that falls to minus-1 ppg away from home.

The Sun Devils also play way better in front of their home crowd, outscoring opponents by a margin of plus-15.7 ppg in Tempe, compared to minus-7.2 ppg when they have to travel. Take the home side to cover as underdogs.

THE LAST OF THE UNBEATENS

The last unbeaten team in the country are the No. 4 San Diego Aztecs who head to Vegas to take on the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels on Sunday. The Aztecs have an aggressive defense and have been holding opponents to just 56.7 ppg on 36.7 percent shooting. But SDSU has been effective on the offensive end of the floor as well, ranking 14th in the country in offensive efficiency.

UNLV has been solid, winning seven of the their last nine games and going 6-3 ATS, but they might be out of their depth here. Their two losses during that span were by 14 points against Nevada and seven points against Boise State. The Aztecs beat Nevada by 13 points and clobbered BSU by 18 after leading by 23 points at halftime.

UNLV has been sloppy with the ball turning the ball over 14.6 times per game, second-worst among all Mountain West teams. SDSU has just 11.1 turnovers per game on offense while their pesky defense forces 15.2 TO per game. The full game spread might be a bit too rich for our blood but with the Aztecs fifth in the nation with an average first-half scoring margin of plus-9.2 ppg, look for them to cover the 1H spread. 

MID-MAJOR TO WATCH: DAYTON (17-2 SU, 11-8 ATS, 13-6 O/U)

Dayton is flying up the rankings currently sitting at No. 7. Their 17-2 record is even more impressive when you consider that both defeats were in overtime to quality opponents, falling 90-84 to Kansas and 78-76 to Colorado.

Led by forward Obi Toppin (19.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 62.3 percent shooting) the Flyers are first in the country in field goal percentage at 52.5 percent and rank third in scoring with 83 ppg. On Saturday they take on the Richmond Spiders who can also fill up the basket converting at a clip of 47.5 percent from the field, including a sizzling 57.6 percent from the floor over their last three games. The Over is worth looking at.

NATIONAL TITLE ODDS

Gonzaga isn’t a program to sleep on anymore, currently sitting at No. 1 in the polls and with the best odds to win the National Championship at +1000. The Zags have the top rated offense in the nation, putting up 88.8 ppg on 50.6 percent shooting and those numbers jump up to 93.5 ppg and 52.5 percent at home.

On Saturday, Gonzaga hosts Pacific and will probably be favored by more than 20 points. Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at home between the two teams dating back to 2016, and the average score of those games was 80-52 in favor of Gonzaga.

If you want to look at a team that’s tumbled down the odds board look no further than the Memphis Tigers who came into the season at +1300 after a terrific recruiting class. After top freshman James Wiseman was suspended and then chose to leave the school, Memphis has looked ugly, coming off a 80-40 smackdown at the hands of Tulsa on Wednesday night. The Tigers currently sit at +6000 odds and even that might be generous. Memphis will try to get back on track on Saturday as they host SMU.

BETTING TRENDS

• By holding Memphis to just 40 points, Tulsa managed to cash the Under for the sixth game in a row. The Golden Hurricanes are 15-4 to the Under and will take on UConn on Sunday. Thanks to a defense that ranks inside the Top-50 teams in the country in opponent FG percentage and an offense that ranks outside the Top-250 in FG percentage, the Huskies have also been a great Under bet, going below the total in 12 of their last 16 contests.

• Virginia has been awful on offense, terrific on defense and plays at the slowest pace in Div 1. But oddsmakers might set the total for their Sunday matchup on the road against Wake Forest a tad too low. The Demon Deacons have gone 8-0-1 to the Over in their last nine games and are 7-1 O/U at home this season.

• Austin Peay is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season. On Saturday, the Governors will host the Belmont Bruins in a Ohio Valley Conference matchup. The Bruins are coming off a 10-point loss on the road against Murray State and have failed to cover in their last two away contests.

NHL Midseason betting review: Stanley Cup futures odds and best bets

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With the NHL heading into the All-Star break we take a look the updated futures odds to win the Stanley Cup as well as the best and worst teams to wager on in terms of Moneyline, Puckline and Over/Under bets.

Despite Washington leading the way for the Presidents’ Trophy this season, Tampa Bay still has the best odds to win the Stanley Cup. The Lightning are followed by the Boston Bruins and the defending Stanley Cup champions the St. Louis Blues.

On the other hand, the Toronto Maple Leafs have fallen outside the Top-5 and now sit at +2000, while the San Jose Sharks have plummeted from a Stanley Cup contender to a +8000 long shot.

Here are every teams’ odds to win the Stanley Cup, courtesy of the Superbook at Westgate:

Teams Odds to win Stanley Cup (as of Jan 23)
Tampa Bay Lightning +600
Boston Bruins +800
St. Louis Blues +800
Washington Capitals +1,000
Colorado Avalanche +1,000
Vegas Golden Knights +1,000
Pittsburgh Penguins +1,200
Dallas Stars +1,200
Arizona Coyotes +1,600
Florida Panthers +2,000
Toronto Maple Leafs +2,000
Vancouver Canucks +2,000
Edmonton Oilers +2,500
Calgary Flames +2,500
New York Islanders +4,000
Carolina Hurricanes +4,000
Nashville Predators +4,000
Columbus Blue Jackets +4,000
Philadelphia Flyers +5,000
Winnpeg Jets +5,000
Minnesota Wild +6,000
San Jose Sharks +8,000
Montreal Canadiens +10,000
New York Rangers +10,000
Buffalo Sabres +10,000
Chicago Blackhawks +10,000
Los Angelas Kings +50,000
Anahiem Ducks +100,000
Ottawa Senators +200,000
New Jersey Devils +200,000
Detroit Red Wings +1,000,000

The Capitals don’t just have the best record in the league, they’ve also been the best Over bet as well as the top team to back on the moneyline returning a profit of +9.35 units for bettors this season.

Thanks to rookie goalie Elvis Merzlikins and a group of forwards that can’t find the back of the net, the Columbus Blue Jackets have been the NHL’s best Under bet. The top team to back on the puckline as a favorite has been the surprising Vancouver Canucks who lead the Pacific Division.

While the Golden Knights were sweating sportsbooks when they made their Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Finals two years ago, oddsmakers have made some of that money back this season as the Knights have been the second-worst money team in the league. The Knights are still way ahead of Detroit who has cost bettors dearly with a loss of almost 20 units.

BEST OVER BETS

Teams Over/Under
Washington Capitals 31-18
Florida Panthers 30-17
Nashville Predators 28-17
Toronto Maple Leafs 28-18
Tampa Bay Lightning 27-20

BEST UNDER BETS

Teams Over/Under
Colombus Blue Jackets 18-32
Dallas Stars 16-29
Carolina Hurricanes 21-29
San Jose Sharks 21-28
Calgary Flames 20-27

BEST MONEY BETS

Teams Total Money Won (based on 100$ bets)
Washington Capitals $935
New York Islanders $700
Colombus Blue Jackets $605
Pittsburgh Penguins $596
New York Rangers $567

WORST MONEY BETS

Teams Total Money Won (based on 100$ bets)
Detroit Red Wings $-1992
Las Vegas Golden Knights $-1010
Los Angelas Kings $-916
San Jose Sharks $-895
Toronto Maple Leafs $-829

BEST PUCKLINE TEAMS AT -1.5 

Teams Total Money Won as Puckline Favorite (PL record as favorite)
Vancouver Canucks $840 (11-12)
Colorado Avalanche $771 (14-14)
Chicago Blackhawks $480 (7-8)
Florida Panthers $410 (13-17)
New York Rangers $375 (5-5)