Will the trend of longshots running well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile continue?

Leave a comment

The $2 million, Grade 1 TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile historically has been a fun, but challenging exercise for bettors and racing fans looking for a winner and, of course, next year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve horse.

Although Game Winner prevailed as the even-money favorite a year ago, favorites have been a poor bet in the Juvenile when looking at the results from 1999-2018 – the last 20 editions of the 1 1/16-mile race – with average winning odds of nearly 11-1 during that time.

Because the Breeders’ Cup brings together the best horses in training from across the country and world, there are so many factors that play into handicapping World Championships races. Two-year-old races present additional variables such as determining quality of competition coming out of stakes filled with maiden winners, runners shipping for the first time, competing in front of a massive crowd, etc. Plus, there is significantly less information in the past performances with which to formulate your opinion.

With that in mind, let’s dig around for some interesting pieces of information in the last 20 editions of the Juvenile that could be helpful as you pare down your list of contenders.

First, let’s focus on all 20 races to try to identify historical trends that could prove useful.

Since this year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Santa Anita Park in Southern California, we’ll then narrow the scope to go in depth on the editions of the Juvenile held at Santa Anita – 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016 – with an emphasis on the five editions held on dirt.

Finally, we’ll take a closer look at this year’s entrants to try and identify a few runners that fit the profile of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner. The race will be televised on NBC Sports live as part of the “Future Stars Friday” broadcast from 4-8 p.m. ET Nov. 1.

What are some of the key takeaways from the last 20 editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile?

  • The favorite has won four times (20%) from 1999-2018 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
  • All four favorites – Game Winner (2018), Shanghai Bobby (2012), Uncle Mo (2010), and War Pass (2007) – were unbeaten and capped perfect championship campaigns in the Juvenile.
  • Eight winners struck at double-digit odds (10-1) or higher, most recently Good Magic at 11.50-1 in 2017. That group includes four at 26.80-1 or higher: Vale of York (30.60-1 in 2009), Wilko (28.30-1 in 2004), Action This Day (26.80-1 in 2003), and Anees (30.3-1 in 1999).
  • The average odds for the winner over the 20-year stretch has been 10.75-1 with a median of 6.70-1. The odds range from even-money for Game Winner in 2018 to 30.6-1 for Vale of York in 2009.
  • All but one of the last 20 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were bred in Kentucky. Irish-bred Vale of York, who in 2009 won on the synthetic main track at Santa Anita, was the lone exception.
  • Thirteen of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners won their final prep race. In fact, all 20 finished in the top three and 18 of 20 won or finished within three lengths of the winner in their final pre-Breeders’ Cup start. None lost by more than five lengths.
  • Eleven of the 13 who won their final prep did so by open lengths (one length or more).
  • Eight of the 13 last-out winners capped unbeaten seasons in the Juvenile.
  • Nine of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners were Grade 1 winners entering the World Championships and 11 were graded stakes winners. Only two horses were neither stakes winners nor graded stakes-placed: Action This Day for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella, and New Year’s Day for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, both won the Juvenile off maiden victories.
  • Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners entered the race with a combined 46 wins from 73 starts from 1999-2018 for a 63% strike rate.
  • Twelve of the 20 Juvenile winners had experience in a race going around two turns. Three others completed their final prep in Europe and four came out of the one-turn-mile Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
  • The Juvenile historically has been a very fair race for all running styles since its inception, and the last 20 years are no exception. Six winners profiled as pace or press-the-pace type runners, seven profiled as stalkers, four were stalkers/closers, and three profiled as dedicated closers.
  • Three winners led from start to finish and five rallied from eight lengths back or more after a half-mile.
  • Four winners led after the first half-mile in the Juvenile from 1999-2018 and 12 of 20 were fifth or better.
  • The average winner was 3.8 lengths back after first quarter-mile, improving to 3.66 lengths back after the first half-mile. Median position was fifth/fourth at the first two points of call, 2 ¼ lengths back after the first quarter-mile and half-mile.
  • Eleven of the 20 winners led in early stretch and 16 were third or better.
  • Macho Uno’s victory by a nose in 2000 was the smallest margin of victory while Street Sense’s 10-length romp in 2006 was the largest winning margin.
  • Five editions of the Juvenile were decided by a neck or less, while on the other side of the coin five editions were won by 4 ¼ lengths or more.
  • The average margin of victory has been 2 ¼ lengths with the median margin of victory 1 ¼ lengths.
  • The average Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is 108.7 with a median of 108.5.
  • Shanghai Bobby earned an 86 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the 2012 Juvenile, which was the slowest in the 20-year stretch, while War Pass (2007) and Uncle Mo (2010) both earned a 123, the highest figure.

How does that change when narrowing the focus to seven Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races held at Santa Anita, with a focus on the five editions held on dirt in 2003, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016?

  • The favorite has one only one of the seven editions of the Juvenile held at Santa Anita between 1999 and 2018, when Shanghai Bobby prevailed as the 1.30-1 favorite in 2012.
  • Longshots have performed quite well at this venue with four double-digit-odds winners, including three from the five held on a dirt main track: Action This Day won at 36.8-1 in 2003, New Year’s Day won at 10.5-1 in 2013, and Texas Red struck at 13.90-1 in 2014.
  • One trait the three double-digit longshots mentioned above had in common was that all were closers or closers/stalkers, which might surprise some given speed is typically very dangerous on the dirt at Santa Anita.
  • Looking only at the five dirt races at Santa Anita from 1999-2018, the average odds for the winner were 11.4-1 with a median of 10.5-1.
  • Only one of the seven Juvenile winners at Santa Anita in this 20-year timeframe profiled as a pace or press-the-pace type: Shanghai Bobby in 2013. Classic Empire entered the race as a stalker in 2016 and pressed a moderate pace before pulling away to win by two lengths and pay $11 for a $2 win bet.
  • Six of the seven editions of the Juvenile were won by stalkers or closers, including four of the five editions held on dirt. Texas Red was ninth after a half-mile, New Year’s Day was eighth, and Action This Day was 12th at that point in the race.
  • Three of the seven races at Santa Anita Park were decided by a neck or less, while the other four were open-length victories.
  • Four of the seven winners at Santa Anita from 1999-2018 won their final prep race. Two others finished second by less than a length and Texas Red finished a well-beaten third behind future Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in his final prep in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes (since renamed the American Pharoah Stakes).
  • Recent form definitely seems to be a bigger factor when narrowing down to the five races on dirt at Santa Anita during this 20-year window as four of five entered off a win, with Texas Red the lone exception. The five runners combined to win 10 of 16 starts (62.5%) prior to the Juvenile.
  • When looking at class, it is interesting that the aforementioned two maiden special weight race winners making their stakes debuts in the Juvenile –  Action This Day (2003) and  New Year’s Day (2013) – both won on the dirt at Santa Anita. It’s worth keeping an eye on lightly raced local runners when looking for a possible longshot.
  • The average winning Equibase Speed Figure for the seven editions of the Juvenile from 1999-2018 was 104.3 with a median of 107. For the five races on dirt during that timeframe, the average dipped to 102.8 with a median of 106.

Which of this year’s contenders fit the typical profile of a Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner?

On paper, there appears to be a pretty clear duo of Breeders’ Cup standouts in Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes winner Dennis’ Moment and Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes winner Eight Rings.

Dennis’ Moment could easily be undefeated, too, had he not clipped heels and unseated his rider in his debut. He won his second start by 19 ½ lengths July 27 at Ellis Park, earning a 101 Equibase Speed Figure and a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. The bay Tiznow colt stalked the pace in his second start and responded when asked by jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to pull away and post a 1 ¾-length win in the Iroquois while geared down late. While his 98 Equibase Speed Figure was a slight step back, when watching the replay it’s clear Dennis’ Moment had plenty left in the tank and he looked excellent in his first try around two turns. It does not look like there is a ton of pace in the race among the probable runners, so that could be a significant advantage for Dennis’ Moment. Twelve of the 20 winners of the Juvenile had two-turn experience and 13 of 20 won their final prep races. With good form, quality speed figures, and what should be an ideal running style, Dennis’ Moment is a logical win candidate.

Likewise, there is much to like from Eight Rings, who will try to give Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert his fifth win in the Juvenile since 2002. The Empire Maker colt generated a ton of buzz when he rolled to a 6 ¼-length romp in his Aug. 4 at debut at Del Mar that earned a 105 Equibase Speed Figure and a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He ducked in and unseated his rider in the Grade 1 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity but came back to post a six-length runaway in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes in his first try around two turns. The 103 Equibase Speed Figure indicates he fits well here and, like Dennis’ Moment, he looked like he had something left in the tank. Eight Rings led from start to finish in the American Pharoah and I’d expect him to set or press the pace. While that has not been especially effective over the last 20 years, especially at Santa Anita, there does not look like much speed pointing to this race and I also think he’s ratable if another entrant is sent to the front. The American Pharoah/FrontRunner Stakes has produced three of the last five winners of this race and there is a very strong chance that Eight Rings, a Grade 1 winner with two-turn experience, will be leading entering the stretch.

If you are looking for a bigger price, Iroquois runner-up Scabbard could be the play. It is possible, however, that Scabbard will be the wise-guy tout having encountered traffic in the Iroquois – he was pretty much stopped cold on the turn –before regaining his momentum and rallying for second. He won his debut and then finished second in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special Stakes before the Iroquois runner-up finish. I thought Scabbard looked better stretching out around two turns, and the 96 Equibase Speed and 87 Beyer Speed Figures he earned were a step in the right direction. He should be finishing well late.

If you are looking for a huge price, one to consider is Wrecking CrewDaily Racing Form has him lasted at 30-1 among the early probables and he’s finished second in both the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes and Grade 1 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity in his two most recent starts after winning his career debut in July at Del Mar. He’s from the first crop of a sire, Sky Kingdom, who was a two-time graded stakes winner at 1 ½ miles and there is some sneaky stamina in his pedigree that doesn’t jump out in the program. With a career-best 99 Equibase Speed Figure and 79 Beyer Speed Figure, he needs to take a big step forward, but he’s shown he can compete against Grade 1 company, trainer Peter Miller has won four Breeders’ Cup races in the last two years, and I think he’ll be passing horses in the stretch at a huge price.

Watch NBC Sports’ coverage of the 2019 Breeders’ Cup starting with Future Stars Friday on Nov. 1 from 4-8 p.m. ET (NBCSN) and continuing with Championship Saturday on Nov. 2 from 3:30-9 p.m. ET (NBCSN until 8, NBC from 8-9). 

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

Getty Images
Leave a comment

MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

Getty Images
Leave a comment

It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)