Another NFL Sunday is upon us, and we’ve spent all week compiling the best betting angles – and not just for spread and totals – presenting our NFL picks for team totals, props and derivatives in our daily NFL betting predictions. So sit back, relax, and check out the best NFL bets for Week 8.
TATE OF THE ART
Golden Tate will face his former team the Detroit Lions this Sunday and the timing couldn’t be better for the receiver and the New York Giants’ passing attack. The Lions traded starting safety Quandre Diggs earlier in the week and top corner Darius Slay has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest.
With Diggs and Slay starting in Week 7, the Lions allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for a season-high 337 yards, 100 yards more than their season average. This week, New York will be without Sterling Shepard once again as Tate will remain the focal point of Daniel Jones’ passing attack.
Tate will have the revenge angle working for him and is on the heels of 20 catches for 182 yards and score and was responsible for 47 percent of Daniel Jones’ passing yards over the last two weeks.
Take the Over on Tate’s receiving yard total of 54.5 and Over on 4.5 receptions.
THREE-PACK OF QB RUSHING TOTALS
Russell Wilson (26.5): Wilson sits fourth among QBs with 90 yards rushing over the last four games and is 3-1 over that stretch in clearing his rushing total. Wilson isn’t passing his totals by much, but he is still cashing and will look to keep the trend going into this week’s game in Atlanta as the Falcons have allowed 102 yards rushing to their last three mobile quarterbacks (sorry Jared Goff). Over 26.5 yards rushing.
Daniel Jones (18.5): Danny Dimes is 3-2 in clearing his rushing total this year as his modest lines are always susceptible to the Over in two or three rushes. Jones sits ninth amongst QBs in rushing yards and didn’t take over the job until Week 3. It helps to have teams key on Saquon Barkley as well, allowing Jones to break bigger plays when keeping on RPOs as he has 63 yards rushing in the two games with the star running back in the lineup. Over 18.5.
Kyler Murray (35.5): Murray has the second-most QB rushing yards over the last four weeks as the rookie is growing and getting more comfortable with his abilities. However, now might be a good time to get some value on the Under as the hype is starting to get loud and New Orleans is legit, holding opposing QBs to just four yards on four attempts since Week 4 (Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew, Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott). Under 35.5.
BETTING ON A BELL BREAKOUT
Le’Veon Bell is a name that we haven’t thrown around here much. Having Luke Falk run the offense didn’t help any, but the former Steeler averaged 4.12 yards a carry against the Cowboys and Patriots with Sam Darnold back under center, which is much closer to his career average of 4.3.
With J-E-T-S coming off an awful 33-0 primetime loss to the Pats, we expect New York to come out strong against the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 27th-ranked rush defense who will now be without DT Marcell Dareus.
We are banking for a Bell breakout game. Take Bell’s Over 68.5 rushing yards.
THE WEATHER OUTSIDE IS FRIGHTFUL
We are at that time in the schedule where the weather can be a big factor. The forecast doesn’t look too nice in Buffalo for this weekend’s matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 100 percent chance of rain in the morning and a 60 percent at game time. Heavy winds (~27 mph) are also expected and temperature in the mid-50s.
With Buffalo averaging 20 points a game at home and the Eagles scoring 21 on the road, it will be a daunting task for either of these teams to outplay their averages in poor playing conditions. The Bills are also 4-2 o/u this year and 2-1 o/u on totals below 43 while the Eagles are 2-2 o/u on the road this year and hit the Under on their lowest total in Week 5 at 43.
We are jumping on the Under 42 and hope New Era Field looks like FedEx Field last week.
*BONUS PLAY: Under longest field goal 45.5 (-112)
POINT OF HENRY
It’s amazing that a team that sits 30th in points allowed at 30.8 points a game has the No. 1 DVOA rush defense. Derrick Henry will find out how tough the Tampa Bay run defense is as the Buccaneers visit the Titans Sunday afternoon. Tampa Bay’s defense has faced Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffery over its last four games allowing a combined 131 yards.
Henry has eclipsed 75 yards rushing in five of his seven games this year but with Tampa Bay’s opponents finding success against its league’s worst pass defense, the Titans running back may see less volume as team’s are averaging a league-high 41.7 passing attempts versus the Bucs.
We are going to back the paradox that is the Bucs’ rush defense and hit the Under on Henry’s total rushing yards of 66.5.
CHARGERS IN CRIME
News today out of the Chargers’ practice is that No. 1 receiver Keenen Allan was held out of Thursday’s practice and is in serious danger of missing Sunday’s game against the Chicago Bears.
If Allan were to sit, the Bolts would trot out a receiving group of Mike Williams, Geremy Davis, Andre Patton and Jason Moore versus Chicago’s No. 8 DVOA defense.
Philip Rivers will lean heavily on TE Hunter Henry and RB Austin Ekeler in the passing game as the Bears are allowing 64 yards a game to tight ends (seventh highest) and 57.6 yards receiving to opposing running backs (third highest).
With Henry going for 100 and 97 yards in back-to-back games, it makes the Over on his Week 8 receiving total of 61.5 a no-brainer. Additionally, we’re taking the Over on Ekeler’s receiving total of 40.5 yards – a number he has passed in three of his last four games.
MONEYLINE THREE-TEAMER
Sometimes it’s nice to bet on what the teams are actually playing for — which is the win. Here’s a trio of moneylines that are paying +295
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (Bills ML -125): The Eagles may be in a bounce-back spot after what can only be described as the worst six minutes of football to open a game on Sunday night. But the Bills’ No.5 DVOA pass defense will give Carson Wentz all he can handle. Wentz has struggled on the road going 9-15 with a passer rating 15 points lower than his home splits, along with twice as many interceptions in the same amount of games played.
It will be a close game as Philadelphia needs the win, but ultimately the Bills get it done at home with Josh Allen and his fourth-quarter passer rating of 139.6 — the best mark in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears (Bears ML -185): Last week’s loss and offensive play-calling (54 passes to seven runs) has many people questioning Matt Nagy’s aptitude with the ball. All this attention will have the Bears running a more conservative script versus the Chargers while allowing their defense to make the plays. The Chargers are scoring just 17 points a game over their last three and are a bottom-five team in turnover margin.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (Colts ML -238): Denver’s offense lacks an identity and now lacks a No.2 receiver after shipping out Emmanuel Sanders this week. Joe Flacco’s offense has also struggled on the road averaging under two touchdowns a game with 189 yards passing. The Colts are averaging twice as many passing yards at home (295) than on the road (148). A lot of Indy’s success lies in the fact that it doesn’t turn the ball over – averaging just one turnover a game this year and 0.3 interceptions a game at home.
CARR-CROSSED OVERS
The Houston Texans are giving up 330 yards passing a game in their last three as a plethora of injuries to their corners forced Houston’s front office to trade for some coverage help this week. No team has allowed more passing TDs since Week 5, making things very interesting for Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.
The Black and Silver’s QB is coming off a season-high 293 yards with two scores in Lambeau last week and has a 109.8 passer rating with six TDs and one INT over three road games this year.
Also in Carr’s favor is that his No. 1 receiver Tyrell Williams is expected to play Sunday. Williams has scored in each of the four games he’s played and may have an even bigger workload if top rookie running back Josh Jacobs sits out after Thursday’s DNP. We like Carr’s Over 1.5 passing TDs as well as Williams’ anytime TD score.
LAST CALL ON CARSON
The Atlanta Falcons have the No.4 rush DVOA defense but will have a difficult time Sunday versus Chris Carson who is averaging 24.5 carries for 103 yards a game over his last four. Those last four games included a 118-yard performance versus the No. 2 rush DVOA defense.
The Seattle Seahawks won’t abandon the run, like many of the Falcons’ opponents, as they are running the ball at the third-highest rate since Week 5. Carson is the alpha-dog in the backfield hitting 80 percent or more of the offensive snaps over the last three and hitting a season-high 89 percent last week.
The Seahawks/Falcons prop markets aren’t currently open as books are waiting to see if Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will suit up Sunday. Once it opens, we will take the Over on Carson’s rushing yards on any total below 85 yards.
DEAL BAKER
We had to remember this play as the subject of our fade got a breather in Week 7. Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in interceptions since 2018 with 25 and has been picked off at least once in every game this year (11 in total).
The former 2018 No. 1 overall pick is last in passer rating with a clean pocket as well as last in passer rating when pressured. It’s safe to say he isn’t going to break out this slump Sunday when the Browns travel to Gillette Stadium.
The New England Patriots just made Sam Darnold, the No.3 overall pick in that same 2018 draft, see ghosts Monday and finish with a 3.6 passer rating with five turnovers. Even with the Week 7 bye, Baker and the boys are in for a world of hurt offensively versus Belichick. The Pats stop unit is making it a point to embarrass opposing QBs as their league-leading opponent passer rating of 35.6 indicates.
Making early prop predictions allows us to predict the line that we can then compare to the real prop odds when the markets open. We will take the Under on Mayfield’s passing total on any number above 214 and the Under on his completions on any number above 18.
DEFENSIVE CARE
We talked about how bad Baker Mayfield has been this year and how difficult a task he has ahead of his matchup with the best DVOA defense in the New England Patriots. Today, we are going to try to talk you into another great prop bet that is paying +200.
The Pats have scored three defensive touchdowns, which is the second-most in the league. Conversely, Tom Brady’s offense has allowed three defensive TDs while their special teams have crossed the plane twice to date.
Combine these New England stats with the fact that the Cleveland Browns are averaging three giveaways a game over the last four weeks, and we are hopping on Sunday’s prop bet of a special team or defensive touchdown scored and hitting the yes at +200.
PUBLIC ENEMY NUMBER ONE
Did you lose money on Melvin Gordon’s suck attack last Sunday? Yes, us too. We are going to focus our fade hate on the one-yard fumbler this week ahead of his match versus the Chicago Bears.
In Gordon’s 36 carries since coming back from his holdout, the runner has plodded to three-or-less yards on 27 of those carries with a long of seven yards. We may see Austin Ekeler’s snap count increase in Week 8 after seeing 59 percent last week and Gordon fumbling twice over his last 12 runs.
Want more reasons to get your revenge on Melvin? The Los Angeles Chargers’ opponent, the Chicago Bears, are fifth in the league in yards per rush attempt against at 3.6.. Hop on the hate-wagon and take Gordon’s Under on his total of 54.5 rushing yards.
SACK TO THE FUTURE
Sunday’s match between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans will feature the Top-2 teams in the league in sacks given up. Combined, the two teams are averaging 9.7 sacks allowed per game over their last three contests and the Bucs are coming off a Week 6 showing that saw Jameis Winston get taken down seven times in Jolly Old London.
The Bucs are really struggling on the right side of the offensive line as they’re without starters Demar Dotson at tackle and Alex Cappa at guard. Even with these two in the lineup for Week 5, Tampa Bay surrendered six sacks to the New Orleans Saints. Cappa will not be available this week and Dotson is questionable.
The Titans may be able to clear the sack total themselves, but it doesn’t hurt that they gave up seven sacks themselves in Week 6 and new QB Ryan Tannehill has been sacked six times in less than six quarters since his promotion. Take the Over 5.5 combined sacks.
TEXANS DEFENSE MASSACRE
The Houston Texans’ defense can’t get off the field. The Texans have the second-worst opponent third-down conversion percentage at over 50 percent and have a secondary that is allowing over three passing touchdowns a game.
The team knows they have a problem with their passing defense as they just acquired cornerback Gareon Conley from the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders must have a good understanding of Conley’s underachieving skillset as the Raiders travel to the Conley’s new home, Houston, this week.
If Conley (55.6 PFF grade) suits up Sunday, look for Derek Carr and Jon Gruden to game plan against the former teammate and a porous secondary one week after putting up nearly 500 yards of offense at Lambeau Field. Josh Jacobs is coming off his best game and the passing attack may get a little more help if No.1 receiver Tyrell Williams returns after missing Week 7.
We’re taking the Over on the Raiders’ team total of 21.5.
BORN TO RUN
An offense with a quarterback in the Bottom 3 in QBR and one of the league’s best defenses passed the ball 54 times last week and ran the ball just seven times. It’s safe to say that Mitch Trubisky and the Chicago Bears lost to the New Orleans Saints, as Bears head coach Matt Nagy said he thought his run game would be better coming out off a Week 6 bye.
Trubisky and the Bears are 5-11 when the QB throws over 30 pass attempts and 13-2 when he doesn’t. Chicago will look to get the run game going Sunday versus the Los Angeles Chargers, who are allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt as hosts in what can loosely be called a home stadium.
We will be waiting to see Trubisky’s passing-attempt total as well as the rushing attempt total for Bears’ running back David Montgomery when their respective markets open later in the week. We will be putting our money on the Under for passing attempts above 27 and also backing the Over on any Montgomery rushing attempt total of 15 or below.
BRONCOS ON THE HITCH POST
The Denver Broncos are in full yard-sale mode after shipping off Emmanuel Sanders to San Francisco.
Last week’s lackadaisical loss to the Kansas City Chiefs may have had something to do with that, as Joe Flacco put in as much effort as Jay Cutler does lining up wide. Now the immobile quarterback will be without his No. 2 receiver ahead of the Broncos’ matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts sit on top of the AFC South, have their defensive leader Darius Leonard back, have a quarterback coming off his best game as a professional, and just won convincingly over their divisional rival. These are two teams going in opposite directions and whose locker rooms are probably polar opposites heading into Week 8.
We’re riding the home favorite here and taking the Colts -6.
