Ditching a Diggs prop, and Thursday’s NFL bets you need to make in Week 8

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Week 8 opens with a lopsided matchup between Washington and Minnesota, but can Stefon Diggs take advantage? We look into the odds for the Thursday nighter, as well as our favorite picks and best bets for the rest of the NFL board: from spreads, totals to props and everything in between. **video

THURSDAY NIGHT ACTION

Washington is getting 16 points against the Minnesota Vikings tonight after opening at 14.5. Minnesota is allowing just 15 points at home and is 4-1 ATS in their last five and 3-0 ATS at home, but they haven’t seen a double-digit spread this year. Washington has seen three games as double-digit underdogs in 2019 and is 2-1 ATS in those games.

One name that Minnesota will be aware of is Washington corner, Quinton Dunbar. Dunbar holds a top-of-the-class PFF grade of 91 as his Redskins are the best in the league at limiting opposing WR1s. Team’s best receivers are averaging just 49 yards per game against Dunbar who will see Vikings’ Stefon Diggs as Adam Thielen has been ruled out.

With the possibility that the game script will dictate a heavy run presence from Mike Zimmer and the Vikings, as well as the shutdown game of Dunbar, we are taking the Under of Diggs’ 85.5 receiving yards.

KEEPING THE TOP ON IT

We are going to make Thursday night’s contest a little more watchable — yes, even Washington’s offense. Of Minnesota’s 24 touchdowns, four have gone for more than 38 yards and three of those four are by Stefon Diggs (see above). Their defense has yet to allow a TD longer than 35 yards.

In Week 1, Washington scored two long TDs of 48 and 69 yards but since they have just one longer than 38 yards and their defense has given up just one long TD since Week 2.

As we mentioned, Diggs will have a tough time getting loose versus one of the best corners giving us great value on the Under 38.5 for the game’s longest touchdown.

LAST CALL ON CARSON

The Atlanta Falcons have the No.4 rush DVOA defense but will have a difficult time Sunday versus Chris Carson who is averaging 24.5 carries for 103 yards a game over his last four. Those last four games included a 118-yard performance versus the No. 2 rush DVOA defense.

The Seattle Seahawks won’t abandon the run, like many of the Falcons’ opponents, as they are running the ball at the third-highest rate since Week 5. Carson is the alpha-dog in the backfield hitting 80 percent or more of the offensive snaps over the last three and hitting a season-high 89 percent last week.

The Seahawks/Falcons prop markets aren’t currently open as books are waiting to see if Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will suit up Sunday. Once it opens, we will take the Over on Carson’s rushing yards on any total below 85 yards.

DEFENSIVE CARE

Yesterday we talked about how bad Baker Mayfield has been this year and how difficult a task he has ahead of his matchup with the best DVOA defense in the New England Patriots. Today, we are going to try to talk you into another great prop bet that is paying +200.

The Pats have scored three defensive touchdowns, which is the second-most in the league. Conversely, Tom Brady’s offense has allowed three defensive TDs while their special teams have crossed the plane twice to date.

Combine these New England stats with the fact that the Cleveland Browns are averaging three giveaways a game over the last four weeks, and we are hopping on Sunday’s prop bet of a special team or defensive touchdown scored and hitting the yes at +200.

 

PUBLIC ENEMY NUMBER ONE

Did you lose money on Melvin Gordon’s suck attack last Sunday? Yes, us too. We are going to focus our fade hate on the one-yard fumbler this week ahead of his match versus the Chicago Bears.

In Gordon’s 36 carries since coming back from his holdout, the runner has plodded to three-or-less yards on 27 of those carries with a long of seven yards. We may see Austin Ekeler’s snap count increase in Week 8 after seeing 59 percent last week and Gordon fumbling twice over his last 12 runs.

Want more reasons to get your revenge on Melvin? The Los Angeles Chargers’ opponent, the Denver Broncos, lead the league in yards per rush attempt against at 2.4 since Week 5. Hop on the hate-wagon and take Gordon’s Under on his total of 54.5 rushing yards.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook