Getty Images

College football Week 8 opening odds: Early bettors peek at Penn State in clash with Michigan

Leave a comment

College football rolls into Week 8, and in a change of pace, the biggest game is in the Big 10, rather than the Southeastern Conference. Covers checks in on that matchup and three others, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA.

No. 16 Michigan Wolverines at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (-7.5)

Penn State is undefeated and very much in early College Football Playoff discussion heading into this prime-time game in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) engaged in a defensive slog at Iowa in Week 7, coming away with a 17-12 victory as 3.5-point favorites.

Michigan cannot take another loss and reasonably expect to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation, thanks to its Week 4 blowout setback at No. 6 Wisconsin. In Week 7, the Wolverines (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) blew almost all of a 28-0 lead at Illinois, with the score 28-25 early in the fourth quarter. Jim Harbaugh’s squad ultimately won 42-25, but fell short as 24.5-point faves.

“Early action has laid the 7.5 with Penn State, meaning the first move looks like it would be to 8,” Chaprales said. “Either way, with two high-profile teams battling under the lights, we’re anticipating good two-way action on this game.”

No. 12 Oregon Ducks at No. 23 Washington Huskies (+2.5)

At midseason, Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope for a CFP bid, making this contest extremely important. The Ducks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) bounced back from a season-opening neutral-site loss to Auburn by winning five in a row. In Week 7, Oregon hammered Colorado 45-3 laying 23.5 points at home.

Washington fully expected to be a CFP contender this year, but two outright losses as double-digit chalk – home against California and at Stanford – shattered those expectations. The Huskies (5-2 SU and ATS) followed the Stanford setback by ripping Arizona 51-27 laying 6 points on the road in Week 7.

“Oregon enters with the superior body of work, while Washington has already stumbled a few times in conference play, losing twice as big favorites,” Chaprales said. “Given that, we opened the Ducks as short road favorites and wouldn’t be surprised if this number moves further in their direction.”

That’s exactly what happened by Monday afternoon, with the line ticking up to Oregon -3.

No. 9 Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (Off)

Florida acquitted itself well in a very difficult two-seek stretch of SEC play, but couldn’t muster two victories. Following a Week 6 home win over Auburn, the Gators (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) went to Louisiana State as 14.5-point pups and were in it almost the entire way before bowing out 42-28.

South Carolina wouldn’t normally be worth a mention in this space, except that it’s coming off a monster upset and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. The Gamecocks (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) were 20.5-point road ‘dogs against unbeaten Georgia, but came away with a 20-17 double-overtime victory.

Gamecocks QB Ryan Hilinski left in the third quarter of the big win, due to a knee sprain. It appears he will play this week, but it’s not yet certain.

“This game is currently off the board, pending the status of Hilinski,” Chaprales said. “Assuming he’s a go, it will be interesting to see how the public reacts to this team, on the heels of one of the biggest upsets in recent memory.”

If Hilinski indeed is cleared to play, Chaprales expects to open Florida around -6.

No. 18 Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5)

No. 5 Oklahoma is rightly all the rage in the Big 12, but flying under the radar is an unbeaten Baylor team. The Bears (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) barely kept their perfect record intact in Week 7, edging Texas Tech 33-30 in double overtime giving 10.5 points at home.

Oklahoma State, coming off a bye week, certainly knows a little bit about Texas Tech, as well. The Cowboys (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) went to Lubbock as 9-point Week 6 favorites and exited with a 45-39 outright loss.

“This game opened Oklahoma State -3.5 and ticked down to 3 on the strength of some early Baylor interest,” Chaprales said. “The Bears have impressed in a weak Big 12 so far, but the market remains a bit skeptical about their 6-0 start, evidenced by them catching points against a team that’s dropped two of its past three.”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers.com. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.

Running up the points with Rockets, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 12

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Are you ready for some more MAC-tion? Because there are two more games on the schedule Wednesday night. We break down the best bets for these games and take a look at the weekend ahead in college football – from sides and totals to props and everything in between.

ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night’s MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation’s No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they’ve been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.

MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU’s 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.

GILBERT  GETTING BACK

Kansas State’s premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week’s 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert’s return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.

WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn’t featured on the team’s depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn’t specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson’s favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

Too late to start fading the Fins, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 11

Getty Images
Leave a comment

This may require a double-take, but listen up. The Miami Dolphins have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of October. Yes, those Miami Dolphins. We break down the odds and let you know what bets we like in Week 11 of the NFL as we dive into sides, totals, props and more. 

STAYING HOT IN Q1

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN’T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5 now, as it may drop under this key number later in the week.