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The college football bets you need to make in Week 7

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Another college football Saturday is here and there are some massive Top 25 matchups on the board! And we’ve spent all week looking up and down the Week 7 college football betting odds, compiling the best picks and predictions on spreads, totals, props and everything in between. 

THIS ONE’S GONNA HURT(S)

The Texas Longhorns haven’t been able to stop opposing pass attacks – and they’ll face one of the most dangerous QBs in the nation this weekend as they square off against Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns come into this one having allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game in the nation (325.0) – and that’s very bad news for a team tasked with containing a QB that is averaging over 300 passing yards per game and has already accounted for 21 touchdowns. Texas’ lone saving grace in that department? It has “held” teams to 11 passing touchdowns through five games.

The Longhorns have already given up 30+ points three times this season, including back-to-back games against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. This Oklahoma team is far more dangerous – and should finish Over its lofty team point total.

NO REST FOR THE WEARY

The Michigan State Spartans are getting a much-deserved and much-needed week off – but not until after they tangle with the powerhouse Wisconsin Badgers in what will be the third road date in four games for MSU. And you can expect Wisconsin to be at full power, coming off a 48-0 drubbing of Kent State in which the Badgers were able to give most of their key players – chiefly standout RB Jonathan Taylor – some much needed rest. Wisconsin has already posted three shutouts and will be looking to extend that defensive dominance against a Spartans team ranked in the bottom half in total offense (393.5 YPG).

This is the first time the Spartans will have played true road games in consecutive weeks since October 2017 – and with the Badgers fully rested and looking dominant, we like the home team on a bigger spread; take -13.5 with confidence.

DON’T BE FOOLED

The Army Black Knights have played back-to-back slugfests that both finished well above the Vegas total – and bettors are wondering if a third straight Over is in the cards this weekend against host Western Kentucky. But not so fast: the Hilltoppers boast one of the most impressive run defenses in the nation, having limited opponents to just 2.82 yards per carry and four rushing TDs all season. On the flip side, WKU have struggled mightily on offense and rank near the bottom of the country in average rushing yards. The Hilltoppers have also seen an average of just 28 total points scored over their past two games.

While the total for this one might scare Under bettors away given how Army’s recent games have gone, both sides are capable of slowing down the opposition offense sufficiently to make the U43 play the superior option here.

WIN SOME, LOSE

Where the Florida Gators are, turnovers aren’t far behind. The Gators will look to maintain their ball-hawking ways – and take much better care of the ball on the offensive end – as they travel to Baton Rouge for a marquee encounter with LSU. Florida comes into the game with the most forced turnovers of any team in the country, having recovered five fumbles while adding 12 interceptions. Unfortunately, things have been quite the opposite when the Gators have the football; only four teams have turned the ball more often than Florida, which has coughed it up 13 times.

While LSU has seen far less turnover turmoil this season, the mere presence of the Gators in this game puts a special teams or defensive touchdown in play; we think it’s worth a look at +225.

JACKSON UNLIKELY TO PLAY

The Maryland Terrapins will be without starting quarterback Josh Jackson for Saturday’s encounter with Purdue. Jackson suffered a high-ankle sprain in last weekend’s victory over Purdue; he had hoped to make sufficient progress to return, but Maryland head coach Mike Locksley says that’s doubtful. Jackson has had a mediocre season at the helm of the Terrapins’ offense, throwing for 10 touchdowns with four interceptions but completing just over 51 percent of his pass attempts. Tyrell Pigrome would get the start in Jackson’s place; Pigrome is 17-of-27 for 171 yards and a TD on the season.

The Maryland offense shouldn’t see a dropoff with Pigrome at the helm against a Boilermakers unit allowing a whopping 290 passing yards per game (117th in FBS). Look for the Terrapins to rally behind their backup QB and pull out the upset win.

ARMANI NOT SUITED TO START

UNLV will once again turn to redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad as their starting quarterback this weekend against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Junior QB Armani Rogers will not start for the Rebels due to a lingering knee injury that kept him off the field for last week’s 38-13 drubbing at the hands of the Boise State Broncos – and while he might see action this week, it won’t be in a starting capacity. Oblad finished with decent numbers against the Broncos (262 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) but needed 55 pass attempts to get there as the Rebels found themselves down by 17 points at the half.

Oblad isn’t nearly the rushing threat that Rogers is, which is a major reason why BSU was able to limit UNLV to 2.2 yards per carry last week. And while Vanderbilt is allowing 5.14 YPC on the season, the downgrade in running ability between Oblad and Rogers makes the Rebels a fade as two-TD underdogs vs. the host Commodores.

BRYANT SET TO RETURN?

Missouri quarterback Kelly Bryant says he’s “90 percent” sure he’ll be able to play this week against Ole Miss. Bryant left last week’s victory over the Troy Trojans with what was diagnosed as a left knee sprain, but he has participated in practice this week and told reporters he’s good to go for the weekend encounter with the Rebels. While not a true dual-threat quarterback, Bryant has 47 carries for 123 yards and a touchdown on the season to go along with 1,246 passing yards and 11 touchdowns (against three interceptions). More importantly, he has been sacked just eight times through the Tigers’ first five games.

It’s doubtful that Bryant will be 100 percent when he takes the field this weekend, and that could be a concern against an Ole Miss defense that averages 2.8 sacks per game (24th-best in the country). Whether Bryant plays or not, we like the Rebels to cover as a double-digit road underdog.

BLACKMAN IS BACK

James Blackman will return to action this weekend as he leads the Florida State Seminoles against the powerhouse Clemson Tigers.

Blackman missed the Seminoles’ previous game against North Carolina State after suffering a knee injury early in a September 27 victory over Louisville. Alex Hornibrook was sensational in his absence but will return to a backup role against the Tigers (-27).

Blackman has had a great start to the season (970 passing yards, nine TDs, two INTs) and has been particularly effective in the first half of games, completing 73.1 percent of his passes with six TDs, zero INTs and a 187.8 QB rating.

Florida State ranks 21st in the nation in first-half scoring at 21.4 points per game – a significant improvement over last season (9.5). And while Clemson is expected to roll here, we see enough from the Seminoles to lean their way on the first half cover.

PROBLEM SOLVED?

Nothing went right for the Nevada Wolf Pack in their 56-3 loss to Hawaii last week, so the coaching staff is doing something about it, naming junior Malik Henry the new starting quarterback for Saturday’s encounter with San Jose State.

Henry gets the call for Nevada (-1.5) after Cristian Solano and Carson Strong combined to throw for just 105 yards with two interceptions in the loss to the Warriors – Nevada’s second 50-point defeat of the season. Henry has appeared in one game for the Wolf Pack this season, completing all three of his pass attempts for 28 yards in a 37-21 victory over UTEP back on September 21.

Even if Henry excels as the starter, he can’t fix a Nevada pass defense that ranks 109th in the country and could get manhandled against SJSU’s 33rd-ranked pass attack. We like the Spartans to earn the outright victory here.

WAIT AND SEE

The Nebraska Cornhuskers could be without their sensational sophomore quarterback for this weekend’s Big Ten showdown with host Minnesota (-7.5).

Adrian Martinez left late in the third quarter of last week’s 13-10 triumph over Northwestern, and Cornhuskers head coach Scott Frost said the team is in “wait-and-see” mode on Martinez’s status for Saturday.

Martinez is the lynch pin of the Nebraska offense, leading the team in passing (1,245) and rushing yards (341) while accounting for 10 touchdowns. Noah Vedral would get the call at quarterback if Martinez isn’t able to suit up.

With the Golden Gophers limiting foes to a 57.9-percent completion rate and 211.8 passing yards per game, Martinez’s absence would be particularly damaging to Nebraska’s chances. It’s a good time to grab this line, as Nebraska could struggle even if Martinez suits up. If he’s ruled out, you could see this one climb to double digits.

 

Running up the points with Rockets, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 12

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Are you ready for some more MAC-tion? Because there are two more games on the schedule Wednesday night. We break down the best bets for these games and take a look at the weekend ahead in college football – from sides and totals to props and everything in between.

ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night’s MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation’s No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they’ve been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.

MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU’s 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.

GILBERT  GETTING BACK

Kansas State’s premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week’s 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert’s return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.

WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn’t featured on the team’s depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn’t specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson’s favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

Too late to start fading the Fins, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 11

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This may require a double-take, but listen up. The Miami Dolphins have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of October. Yes, those Miami Dolphins. We break down the odds and let you know what bets we like in Week 11 of the NFL as we dive into sides, totals, props and more. 

STAYING HOT IN Q1

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN’T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5 now, as it may drop under this key number later in the week.