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Bet on another big game from Aaron Jones, and Friday’s NFL bets you need to make in Week 6

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Aaron Jones is coming off a massive performance in Week 5 and he could be in for another big performance this weekend against the Detroit Lions. We break down all the football odds including team totals, player props, teasers and a whole lot more as we give you our best bets and predictions for Week 6 in the NFL.

A JONES THROW AWAY

We don’t always suggest betting on players coming off monstrous four-touchdown games, but when these players are squaring off against a defense that is allowing 66 yards receiving to opposing running backs this year, we love hitting the “Over” button.

The Detroit Lions are 12th in DVOA pass defense but sit 31st in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. Five RBs have gone Over 31 yards receiving through the Lions’ four games to date as the Motor City Mammalia are surrendering 8.74 yards per pass attempt to opposing backs.

Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Jones sits third on the team in receiving yards and has stuffed the passing boxscore in the last two weeks turning 15 targets into 13 catches for 112 yards. With Davante Adams expected to sit again on Monday, we are firing up the Jones Over 30.5 receiving yards as a rare two-unit play.

COOPER SIZE ME

The New York Jets came into the 2019 season with a plethora of injuries to their secondary, so much so that safety Jamal Adams jokingly said he would play corner if the team needed. They are finally getting healthy, but the problem is they still stink, especially to opposing WR1s where they are allowing a league-worst 114 yards a game.

The fact that quarterback Sam Darnold will likely start and the recently embarrassed Dallas Cowboys are coming to town creates a perfect storm — sans Clooney and Wahlberg. Amari Cooper hung a 11/226/1 on PFF’s No.1 cornerback last week and will feast on the Jets who may be more competitive with Darnold running the offense again, keeping the score closer than previous weeks.

Take the Over on Amari Cooper’s 80.5 receiving yards.

ALIVE AND KICKING

The field goals have been flying at Empower Field at Mile High this year. The Denver Broncos have played two home games this year and kickers are a perfect 10-for-10 in the Colorado air.

The Broncos are giving up over three field-goal attempts a game as their defense is only allowing TDs in the redzone on 33 percent of their opponents’ trips inside the 20.

The Tennessee Titans will have a new kicker when they take on the Broncos Sunday as Cody Parkey replaces Cairo Santos. The former Chicago outcast will have his chances to prove himself to his new club as the Titans have had trouble finishing drives of late, scoring a TD in the rezone at the 28th-worst clip over their last three.

Kickers are people too. Grab the Over 3.5 field goals made (+100)

TROUBLE IN THE REDZONE

Two teams in the league have yet to score a touchdown in the redzone on the road. One of them is the Miami Dolphins and the second, more surprisingly, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mike Tomlin’s crew will head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers and their troubles within the 20 may be prevalent for another week.

The best-case scenario for the Steelers is that Mason Rudolph and his 161 yards per game start and the worst-case scenario is undrafted quarterback Delvin Hodges starts. Both cases don’t inspire much confidence in the team’s ability to move the ball as their team total sits at 16.5.

We are betting on Pittsburgh’s first score being a field goal (-110).

SACKS CALLING

The Carolina Panthers have been getting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, sacking QBs 5.3 times per game over their last three. That is bad news for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who gave up six sacks last week and 12 total in Weeks 3 through 5.

Adding insult to injury, the Bucs will also be without their starting right guard and right tackle, meaning Winston may be running for his life in London. Take the Over 5.5 total sacks and enjoy this seldom played but entertaining prop play.

 

Running up the points with Rockets, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 12

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Are you ready for some more MAC-tion? Because there are two more games on the schedule Wednesday night. We break down the best bets for these games and take a look at the weekend ahead in college football – from sides and totals to props and everything in between.

ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night’s MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation’s No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they’ve been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.

MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU’s 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.

GILBERT  GETTING BACK

Kansas State’s premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week’s 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert’s return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.

WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn’t featured on the team’s depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn’t specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson’s favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

Too late to start fading the Fins, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 11

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This may require a double-take, but listen up. The Miami Dolphins have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of October. Yes, those Miami Dolphins. We break down the odds and let you know what bets we like in Week 11 of the NFL as we dive into sides, totals, props and more. 

STAYING HOT IN Q1

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN’T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5 now, as it may drop under this key number later in the week.