Aaron Jones is coming off a massive performance in Week 5 and he could be in for another big performance this weekend against the Detroit Lions. We break down all the football odds including team totals, player props, teasers and a whole lot more as we give you our best bets and predictions for Week 6 in the NFL.
A JONES THROW AWAY
We don’t always suggest betting on players coming off monstrous four-touchdown games, but when these players are squaring off against a defense that is allowing 66 yards receiving to opposing running backs this year, we love hitting the “Over” button.
The Detroit Lions are 12th in DVOA pass defense but sit 31st in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. Five RBs have gone Over 31 yards receiving through the Lions’ four games to date as the Motor City Mammalia are surrendering 8.74 yards per pass attempt to opposing backs.
Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Jones sits third on the team in receiving yards and has stuffed the passing boxscore in the last two weeks turning 15 targets into 13 catches for 112 yards. With Davante Adams expected to sit again on Monday, we are firing up the Jones Over 30.5 receiving yards as a rare two-unit play.
COOPER SIZE ME
The New York Jets came into the 2019 season with a plethora of injuries to their secondary, so much so that safety Jamal Adams jokingly said he would play corner if the team needed. They are finally getting healthy, but the problem is they still stink, especially to opposing WR1s where they are allowing a league-worst 114 yards a game.
The fact that quarterback Sam Darnold will likely start and the recently embarrassed Dallas Cowboys are coming to town creates a perfect storm — sans Clooney and Wahlberg. Amari Cooper hung a 11/226/1 on PFF’s No.1 cornerback last week and will feast on the Jets who may be more competitive with Darnold running the offense again, keeping the score closer than previous weeks.
Take the Over on Amari Cooper’s 80.5 receiving yards.
ALIVE AND KICKING
The field goals have been flying at Empower Field at Mile High this year. The Denver Broncos have played two home games this year and kickers are a perfect 10-for-10 in the Colorado air.
The Broncos are giving up over three field-goal attempts a game as their defense is only allowing TDs in the redzone on 33 percent of their opponents’ trips inside the 20.
The Tennessee Titans will have a new kicker when they take on the Broncos Sunday as Cody Parkey replaces Cairo Santos. The former Chicago outcast will have his chances to prove himself to his new club as the Titans have had trouble finishing drives of late, scoring a TD in the rezone at the 28th-worst clip over their last three.
Kickers are people too. Grab the Over 3.5 field goals made (+100)
TROUBLE IN THE REDZONE
Two teams in the league have yet to score a touchdown in the redzone on the road. One of them is the Miami Dolphins and the second, more surprisingly, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mike Tomlin’s crew will head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers and their troubles within the 20 may be prevalent for another week.
The best-case scenario for the Steelers is that Mason Rudolph and his 161 yards per game start and the worst-case scenario is undrafted quarterback Delvin Hodges starts. Both cases don’t inspire much confidence in the team’s ability to move the ball as their team total sits at 16.5.
We are betting on Pittsburgh’s first score being a field goal (-110).
The Carolina Panthers have been getting consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, sacking QBs 5.3 times per game over their last three. That is bad news for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who gave up six sacks last week and 12 total in Weeks 3 through 5.
Adding insult to injury, the Bucs will also be without their starting right guard and right tackle, meaning Winston may be running for his life in London. Take the Over 5.5 total sacks and enjoy this seldom played but entertaining prop play.