Giants vs Patriots NFL betting picks and predictions: Can Danny Dimes cash as big dog in New England?

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It’s Danny Dimes versus the GOAT. Yup, rookie quarterback Daniel Jones faces his toughest test as a pro, as the Giants travel to Foxboro to take on Tom Brady and the Patriots to open Week 6. The Giants are big 17-point road underdogs and it won’t help matters that Jones will be without his top offensive weapons for this one. From the opening kickoff to the final whistle, we break down the best ways to wager the odds for the NFL Thursday nighter.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-17, 41 @ BETAMERICA)

QUICK HITTER

Tell us if you’ve heard this one before. The Patriots are undefeated. Not only are the defending Super Bowl champions undefeated, they may have one of their all around strongest teams to date, particularly on the defensive side of the ball where they rank first in the NFL defensive DVOA.

But this is a Tom Brady team, so you know the offense is going to be good as well. And it has been, ranking eighth in offensive DVOA. And Brady and the Pats have been getting off to good starts this season. New England leads the NFL in first quarter scoring at 9.2 per contest and have opened the scoring with a touchdown in four of their five games.

A Giants defense that ranks 30th in total defense probably won’t put up much resistance in this one.

Pick: First Score – Patriots TD (+125)

FIRST-HALF BET

When big numbers are staring you in the face like this one, sometimes the first-half spread is the way go. Particularly when you have a team like the Pats. New England has a +13.6 first-half margin, and have only allowed 10 first half points all season long.

While Danny Dimes burst onto the scene with big games against Tampa Bay and Washington, those were not exactly tough defenses. Last week, Jones finally had to go up against a team that was competent on that side of the ball, and it didn’t go well. The Vikings defense held Jones to 21-38 passing for 182 yards with a touchdown and a pick in a 28-10 home loss. Minnesota was also to keep Jones in the pocket and didn’t allow him any room to run.

Take the Patriots to head into half with a double-digit lead.

Pick: Patriots -10 First Half Spread

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

Keep an eye on the weather forecast for this one, it could get a little slick. There is a fairly high percentage of precipitation all through the game and that could play right into the Patriots game plan. Bill Belichick is the master of making offenses uncomfortable and you can bet Jones will feel that way at some point in this one.

Not only will Jones have to deal with one of the best defenses in the league, but it will also be his first pro game dealing with a wet ball. And while the Danny Dimes love is high right now, he has already committed five turnovers in his first three games, and the Patriots lead the NFL in takeaways with 12, turning three of those turnovers into scores.

The matchup combined with the wet weather could lead to ample chances for the Pats opportunistic defense to run one back.

Pick: Special Team or Defensive TD Scored – Yes (+225)

FULL GAME TOTAL

Fun stat. The Patriots are third in the league in points per game at 31 per contest, but have only cashed one Over this season. That’s how good the defense has been. They are allowing less than seven points against per game and have only given up two offensive touchdowns all season. Belichick is known for taking away a team’s best weapon. And for the Giants, with star back Saquon Barkley and stud tight end Evan Engram on the shelf for this one, that would be Jones. It’s just really hard to envision where the Giants’ points are going to come from with Jones seemingly all by himself.

This is a really good number, but the Patriots should remain committed to the run in this one (even though their yards per carry isn’t the greatest) and that should shorten the game as well.

Pick: Under 41

FULL GAME SIDE

The Patriots have already been -14 or greater favorites three times this season, going 2-1 ATS in those games. They throttled Miami as 18-point faves, then took their foot off the gas against the Jets as 20.5-point chalk. And then, just last week covered fairly easily against Washington. So, it’s hard to know what to expect from them here.

But if there is one stat that could maybe sway the way you are leaning, it could be this. Belichick is 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS when facing rookie quarterbacks at home since 2000. Mix in Jones’ turnover troubles and an opportunistic Pats defense and the home side is the one you should be if you feel inclined to take a side.

Pick: Patriots -17

Running up the points with Rockets, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 12

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Are you ready for some more MAC-tion? Because there are two more games on the schedule Wednesday night. We break down the best bets for these games and take a look at the weekend ahead in college football – from sides and totals to props and everything in between.

ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night’s MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation’s No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they’ve been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.

MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU’s 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.

GILBERT  GETTING BACK

Kansas State’s premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week’s 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert’s return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.

WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn’t featured on the team’s depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn’t specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson’s favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

Too late to start fading the Fins, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 11

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This may require a double-take, but listen up. The Miami Dolphins have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of October. Yes, those Miami Dolphins. We break down the odds and let you know what bets we like in Week 11 of the NFL as we dive into sides, totals, props and more. 

STAYING HOT IN Q1

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN’T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5 now, as it may drop under this key number later in the week.