Browns vs 49ers NFL betting picks and predictions: Look for big plays from Cleveland

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Two up-and-coming young teams face off on Monday Night Football as the Cleveland Browns, fresh off a 40-point performance against the Ravens, take on the 3-0 San Francisco 49ers. From the first whistle to the last we break down the odds and give our best bets and predictions for this matchup.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-5, 47 @ BETAMERICA)

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The Browns will be the best defense the 49ers have faced this year. So far San Fran’s offensive line has managed to keep quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s jersey relatively clean, letting him get sacked just twice in three games.

However, the Browns led by Myles Garrett are fourth in the league in sacks with 3.5 per game and should be able to apply more pressure than what Jimmy-G has faced this year.

The 49ers defense has been excellent against both the run and the pass; holding opposing running backs to just 3.3 yards per carry and opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage of 57.14. So both offenses could struggle out of the gate in this one.

We like the Under 9.5 on the 1Q total.

PICK: First quarter total – Under 9.5 (-110)

FIRST-HALF BET

San Fran has put points on the scoreboard this year but they tend to do most of their damage in the second half. In the opening half they average just 11 points per game. Cleveland scores 9.5 ppg in the opening half and even in their 40-point performance last week, scored only 10 points through the first 35 minutes of the game.

On the defensive side of the ball, both teams have been stout in the early going. The Browns hold opponents to just 6.2 ppg in the opening half, the third-best number in the league. The Niners defense, which features a front seven just littered with first-round draft selections, isn’t far behind them giving up 7.7 points in the first half.

Take the Under on the 1H total.

PICK: First Half total Under 23 (-110)

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

We’ve already described how much the 49ers defense has improved and one stat in particular makes this clear: interceptions. In 2018, the 49ers set an NFL record for the fewest interceptions in a season, picking off just two passes! This year, through just three games, they’ve already more than doubled that total with five INTs.

Browns QB Baker Mayfield has plenty of potential but he’s a gunslinger who’s not afraid to force passes. Unfortunately for Cleveland fans that also means he gets picked off a lot. Mayfield has been intercepted in every game this season, and going back to last year he’s thrown 13 interceptions over his last nine games.

Odell Beckham Jr. has been limited to just 86 yards on eight catches over the last two games (with not a single reception of 20 yards or more), so you might see Mayfield force the ball downfield a bit more on Monday night. We like Mayfield to throw an interception even with the number juiced heavily towards that happening.

PICK: Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions (-150)

FULL GAME TOTAL

Both defenses have looked very strong this season while the offenses have been inconsistent. Cleveland’s offense finally broke through last week, but through the first three games of the season looked out of sync on that side of the ball, averaging just 330.3 yards and 16.3 points per game.

San Francisco has racked up a lot of yards this year but if you look below the surface there are troubling signs. The best defense they’ve faced this year was Pittsburgh who rank 19th in the league in yards allowed, and the Niners have turned the ball over more than any team in the league with 2.7 giveaways per game. They also have one of the worst red-zone offenses in the NFL, scoring a touchdown just 42.86 percent of the time they enter the red zone.

We think the second half will be higher scoring than the first but we’re still leaning towards the Under.

PICK: Under 47 (-110)

FULL GAME SIDE

San Francisco might be 3-0 but they’ve beaten up on some pretty weak opponents in the Buccaneers, Bengals, and Roethlisberger-less Steelers. The Browns got stomped by the Titans in Week 1 but are coming off an impressive win against a good Ravens team and the previous week were leading against the Rams until the fourth quarter.

The Browns also have a terrific group of skill players, in Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb that are all capable of making big plays. That big-play ability could make the difference in a back-and-forth defensive battle.

The Niners might play spoiler every now and then but they don’t do a good job of covering when they are the chalk. They’re 0-5 ATS as a favorite going back to last year, and have covered as a favorite only once since 2015 (1-9 ATS in that span). With the Browns 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road, take them to cover again.

PICK: Cleveland +5 (-110)

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

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It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)