The NFL bets you need to make in Week 5

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Another NFL Sunday is upon us, and we’ve spent all week compiling the best betting angles – and not just for spread and totals – presenting our NFL picks for team totals, props and derivatives in our daily NFL betting predictions. So sit back, relax, and check out the best NFL bets for Week 5.

POT O’ COLTS

We have hit back-to-back weeks betting against the Indianapolis Colts run defense as they have allowed Josh Jacobs and Devonte Freeman to eclipse their rushing totals due to the absence of All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. Leonard won’t suit up this Sunday again versus the Kansas City Chiefs as well as both of their starting safeties. The Chiefs will obviously put up points in the Sunday night contest, but the first half is where our attention is.

The Chiefs are tops in the league, scoring an average of 21.8 first-half points through four games and that number jumps to 23.0 points at home. The Colts sit in the middle of the pack in first-points allowed but are coming off a Week 4 performance that saw them give up three first-quarter touchdowns to David Carr and the Oakland Raiders at home.

The Chiefs’ receivers are banged up, but they will get some assistance as running back Damien Williams should dress, aiding the passing game. Take the Chiefs’ first-half team total of 17.5 (+100) and hit the Over.

TUCK AND RUN

Who doesn’t love a quarterback hitting his Over on rushing yards? Nobody, that’s who. It may be the most enjoyable prop bet to watch. Here is a list of rushing QBs that we support this week.

Daniel Jones (22.5 yards): Danny Dimes, has cleared his totals in both weeks: 22.5 in Week 3 and 20.5 in Week 4. Over those two weeks, the Giants QB has rushed nine times for 61 yards.

DeShaun Watson (24.5): Being one of the most pressured QBs in the league allows Watson to sidestep sacks and take off. Watson is averaging over four rush attempts a game and will face off against the Falcons who let Marcus Mariota go Over his rushing total last week.

Gardiner Minshew (12.5): Uncle Minshew rushed just once last week for two yards but had 74 yards on the ground in Weeks 2 and 3. Carolina is the 24th most difficult fantasy matchup for QBs but they gave up 69 yards rushing to rookie QB Kyler Murray just two weeks ago.

FADING THE INFERIOR

With the Miami Dolphins on a bye, we will have to turn our fading attention to another tough-to-watch club.

Washington is paying +150 to score one point or more in the first quarter against the Patriots. That’s a good indicator of how bad things are in Washington these days. With Colt McCoy starting and Terry McLaurin questionable, we like Washington’s team total Under 13.5 points.

The New England Patriots defense has given up just a single touchdown this year and is averaging 6.8 points against per game. We doubt McCoy and his 28th-ranked offense in will double the Pats’ average points allowed. Take the Redskins Under 13.5 points.

QUICK AND EASY

Here’s a quick hitter: Ravens at Steelers shortest TD scored Over 1.5 yards. Quarterback sneaks are a big part of this prop and the Steelers don’t run the sneak because their offensive coordinator believes they are too dangerous for the quarterback.

BUMMER BENGALS’ BOSS IS BOTHERSOME

The Cincinnati Bengals looked like they belong in Miami-Washington territory after the Monday Nighter versus the Steelers. Head Coach Zac Taylor needs to take a lot of blame for the three-point performance.

Trailing by 21 points in the third quarter, the Bengals ran the ball three-straight times and ended up with a 7:6 run-to-pass ratio without a hurry-up in all of their third-quarter possessions.

If the Arizona Cardinals can muster any pass rush on Sunday, the league’s second-worst offensive line will keep on doing what they do best which is impede Dalton’s five-step drop and/or get him sacked.

We are backing the Bengals team total Under 25.5 points and wouldn’t call you crazy for hopping on the Cards at +3.0.

DUKE NUKEM

It seems wherever Duke Johnson goes, he is incredibly underutilized. His 146 rushing yards on 23 attempts this year leaves a lot to be desired but things aren’t all bad on the Duke front. On the positive side, Johnson out-snapped teammate Carlos Hyde last week 36-to-33 and ripped off a 40-yard trot — the offense’s biggest play of the day.

Oh, you want more Johnson love? DJ sits third amongst RBs in missed tackles forced per touch and ranks second in yards per touch. In fact, the Houston Texans runner hasn’t finished outside the top-10 in yards per touch since 2015.

With a low rushing total of 30.5 yards, we are on the Over and hope Texans head coach Bill O’Brien leans on the run against an Atlanta Falcons defense that surrendered 138 yards on the ground last week.

LONESTAR LET DOWN

The Dallas Cowboys banged-up receiving core may be in for a tough day heading into their Week 5 matchup versus the Green Bay Packers’ No. 5 DVOA pass defense.

Over their last three games, the Packers’ secondary has held opponents’ top TWO receivers to an average of 2.6 catches for 43 yards. That’s less than 90 yards to WR1 and WR2 combined. PFF’s top-graded corner Jaire Alexander will lock up with Amari Cooper who has been held to under 50 yards receiving in two of his last three games.

Dallas’ new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, will be facing his first test of adversity coming off the offense’s poorest performance in Week 4. Moore’s offense averaged 481 yards from Weeks 1 through 3 against NFL bottom feeders but was held to 257 total yards against a bonafide New Orleans Saints defense.

We are backing the Under on the Cowboys’ team total of 25.5.

BARKS HAS BITE

Road dogs went an impressive 7-2 last week which brings their 2019 record to 27-12-1. Looking deeper into those numbers, road dogs with closing spreads of six or less finished 5-3 SU last week and are 18-12 SU so far in 2019.

This week we have eight teams that fit the mold: Arizona +3; Atlanta +5; Buffalo +3; Jacksonville +3.5; Tampa Bay +3; Denver +6; Green Bay +3; Cleveland +3.

Of that group, we like Buffalo to beat a Titans team that struggles to win back-to-back games. Jacksonville has been impressive and playing competitive football as they are 3-0 ATS in their last three but that magic has to end soon. We like the Broncos +6 the most as their tough luck has to end soon, even without Bradley Chubb.

Facing a divisional rival in the Los Angeles Chargers, we are predicting a close, hard-fought game between two underperforming teams. Denver has won three of the last five games on the road at the Chargers and are in win-now mode or else things could get real ugly with a tough schedule ahead of them.

CALLOWAY INN

The San Francisco 49ers viewed cornerback Emmanuel Moseley as their No.4 corner just two weeks ago. This week, versus the Cleveland Browns, Moseley will start opposite Richard Sherman.

With the Niners sporting the league’s second-best DVOA defense, we expect Freddie Kitchens and the Browns to exploit one of the few weaknesses on the 49ers defensive front.

The five-foot-ten Moseley will have his hands full as he will draw either Odell Beckham (likely to be shadowed by Sherman) or Antonio Calloway — fresh off his four-game suspension.

We are going to play the Over on Calloway’s total receiving yards of anything under 45 yards.

BILLS DEFENSE KEEPS ROLLING

Coming into Week 4, the last time Tom Brady had a quarterback rating of less than 46, the movie Borat was shocking audiences and Sean Paul was raising the temperature. The Buffalo Bills defense did something that hadn’t been done since 2006: holding the league’s prince to a QB rating of 45.9. This week they get to tee off on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans put up 17 points in their only home game this year against the Colts’ 30th ranked DVOA defense and were held to under 20 regulation points in their first five home games last year. Tennessee has also had trouble putting drives together as they have the second-most punts through four games.

With the Bills defense showing they are an elite group last week, look for a slow, low-scoring game. Hit the Titans team total Under 20.5.

JAMES AND THE GIANT PROP

New England Patriots running back Rex Burkhead was limited in practice again on Wednesday. The lingering foot injury held him to just one touch in Week 4 after 17 touches in Week 3. With Sony Michel’s struggles, look for an expanded workload for James White.

White led his team in targets last week with 10 which he turned into 57 yards on eight catches. He also led the backfield with a 52 percent share of snaps.

His opponent this week is Washington, which allowed New York Giants’ Wayne Gallman to go 6/55/1 through the air last week in his first career start. Washington is lacking skilled players to cover running backs as they have three linebackers on I.R. and their starter du jour, Jon Bostic, has a poor PFF grade of 55 this year.

We are buying the Over on a reception total below six and an Over on a receiving yards total of 39 and below.

COUSINS CAN CUT IT

We sure hope Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins doesn’t see how his name is being treated on social media. Cousins, set to make $27.5 million this year, has a worse total QBR than the Jets’ Luke Falk and averaging just 169 yards passing a game — only better than the Dolphins.

Oddly, the Vikings QB has a 60 percent adjusted completion rate of passes over twenty yards that equates to a 144 quarterback rating. Those numbers are great, the only problem is he has attempted just 10 passes of 20 yards or more.

Enter the New York Giants. The Giants secondary is allowing 279 yards to passers — Washington QBs sadly included in that number — and has five players currently on the I.R. Jameis Winston threw for 380 yards in Week 3 against the Giants, Josh Allen had 253 yards in Week 2 and Dak Prescott torched them for 405 yards in the opener.

With nobody giving Cousins a chance, we don’t mind putting some money on a guy down on his luck. If you can stomach it, take Kirk Cousins Over 232.5 passing yards.

SACK-O’-LANTERN

Last week we won a little money on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The “King of Inconsistency” will face off the Buffalo Bills as a 3-point favorite. We aren’t going to put our winnings back on MarMar but will be hoping he and Barkley will be hitting the dirt early and often.

Although Mariota has yet to throw an interception this year, he has been sacked 17 times – fourth-most in the league. With Josh Allen still in concussion protocol, Barkley will have to face a Titans defense that is getting to opposing QBs 3.2 times a game while the Bills are allowing 2.5 sacks a game.

You may have to wait closer to game time to get this prop but when it opens, hit the Over 5.5 sacks (value at O/U 6.5 as well).

CASHING ON THE CARDS

Last week we mentioned how terrible the Arizona Cardinals have been at defending tight ends this year. Seattle’s Will Dissly hit the trifecta by going Over on his receptions, yards and scored a plus-money TD in the second quarter. This week Tyler Eifert will get his chance to pad the stats in Week 5’s edition of Cashing On the Cards.

The Cincinnati Bengals TE has seen at least five targets in three of his four games this year and will have a better time making more of his snaps as the Cardinals are averaging a passer rating of 118.4 to opponents – ahead of just the Dolphins. The Cincy offensive line got embarrassed on the national stage Monday night and will be a motivated to give Andy Dalton a little more time to pass.

We’re going back on the trifecta with Eifert’s unassuming totals: Over 2.5 receptions (-128), Over 30.5 yards (-114), and a touchdown anytime (+224).

Running up the points with Rockets, and the college football bets you need to make in Week 12

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Are you ready for some more MAC-tion? Because there are two more games on the schedule Wednesday night. We break down the best bets for these games and take a look at the weekend ahead in college football – from sides and totals to props and everything in between.

ROOM TO ROAM

The Toledo Rockets might be only slight favorites for Wednesday night’s MAC tilt with visiting Northern Illinois, but they have a significant advantage in at least one area – and it could turn this one into a bit of a laugher. The Rockets come into the game with the nation’s No. 12 rushing offense, averaging nearly 251 yards per game on the ground – and they’ve been especially dominant over their previous two games, racking up a combined 664 rushing yards in narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Kent State. The Huskies, meanwhile, are coming off getting routed 48-10 to Central Michigan in which the Chippewas posted 327 rushing yards.

An edge like this makes Toledo a terrific option in a variety of different bet scenarios; we recommend buying a few points in their favor and taking an alternate line of -6.5.

MIAMI (OH) FOR 3

The Miami (OH) Redhawks should have little trouble filling the board Wednesday night as they host a Bowling Green defense that ranks among the worst in the nation in points allowed. But while the Falcons have surrendered a mind-boggling 33.8 points per game so far this season, the Redhawks might not necessarily be headed for a parade to the end zone. Miami (Ohio) has one of the worst touchdown-to-field-goal ratios in the country coming into Week 12, having scored 22 TDs compared with 16 FGs – six of those coming over the course of their current three-game winning streak.

Miami (Ohio) is a big-time favorite here, and is a good bet to open the scoring given BGSU’s 2.5 first-half-points-per-game average on the road this season. We like the Redhawks FG to kick off the point parade.

GILBERT  GETTING BACK

Kansas State’s premier rushing threat might be back on the field this weekend. Wildcats senior James Gilbert practiced on Tuesday and is trending in the right direction as he recovers from an undisclosed ailment that kept him out of last week’s 27-24 loss to the Texas Longhorns. It was originally thought that Gilbert would be in the lineup vs. Texas, but he was a late exclusion – and Kansas State struggled in his absence, finishing with a paltry 51 rushing yards on 26 attempts. Gilbert ranks ninth in the Big 12 Conference in rushing yards (558) while adding five touchdowns on the ground.

Gilbert’s return would invigorate a Kansas State rush attack that has a favorable matchup against a West Virginia defense allowing 173 rushing yards per game. We recommend the hosts ATS if Gilbert is deemed fit to return.

WAKING NIGHTMARE

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have seen their season take a terrible turn with word that standout wide receiver Sage Surratt will miss the remainder of 2019 with an undisclosed injury. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson confirmed Tuesday that Surratt, who wasn’t featured on the team’s depth chart ahead of its Week 12 encounter with Clemson, would be out for the rest of the season – though he wouldn’t specify what was wrong with the star wideout. Surratt finishes the year with 1,001 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on 66 receptions as the premier target for quarterback Jamie Newman.

The absence of Surratt should give bettors even less of a reason to bank on Wake Forest, which has seen the line shift as far as four points in Clemson’s favor. Look for the Tigers to keep the undermanned Deacons below their team total.

Too late to start fading the Fins, and the NFL bets you need to make in Week 11

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This may require a double-take, but listen up. The Miami Dolphins have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of October. Yes, those Miami Dolphins. We break down the odds and let you know what bets we like in Week 11 of the NFL as we dive into sides, totals, props and more. 

STAYING HOT IN Q1

The hottest team in the league right now is Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. After knocking off the Patriots in Week 9, they turned their crosshairs on the winless Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. The Ravens ran just 48 offensive plays but managed to put up 49 points. Lost in the 49-13 win was the fact that Baltimore moved to 8-1 against the first-quarter spread after winning the first 15 minutes 14-0.

This week, Baltimore is a 4-point home favorite versus a Houston team that is coming off their bye. If you don’t trust a team coming off a blowout win versus the worst team in the league and/or covering their last three games, take a look at the 1Q Ravens -0.5 (-105) as an alternative.

Baltimore is second in the league in first quarter points per game at 9.5 and third in the league in points against in the first quarter at 3.67 while the Texans are 0-3-1 on the road this year in the first quarter. Take the Ravens 1Q -0.5.

FEAST AWAITS EVANS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face a very motivated New Orleans Saints team Sunday, but NOLA will be without their top cornerback in Marcus Lattimore. The third-year CB is week-to-week with a hamstring injury meaning Bucs WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will face sub-par corners in P.J. Williams and Eli Apple.

As Brad Evans pointed out on twitter, this is especially great news for Mike Evans who has struggled over his career versus Lattimore. Evans put up a donut early this year in Week 5 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and averaged 9.5 targets for three catches and 34 yards in two games in 2017 (last year Lattimore struggled following up his 2017 DROY but has been much better this year).

Even with Jameis Winston getting sacked nearly four times a game, Evans is averaging 139 yards a game over his last four contests. Jump on Evans’ receiving yard total on any number below 85 and check in on his reception total, hitting the Over on any number below 7.

LOADING SCREEN

No team in the league relies on the screen game more than the Minnesota Vikings. Per ESPN, Minnesota is averaging 9.8 yards per screen attempt which is 3.5 yards more per attempt than the No.10 team.

The beneficiary of this is running back Dalvin Cook who gashed the Cowboys in primetime every time he got the ball with blockers ahead of him. Over the last three games, Cook has amassed 193 yards receiving and will face a Denver Broncos’ defense that is giving up 8.6 yards per pass to RBs since Week 8.

Grab the Over on Cook’s receiving yards on any total less than 40 yards.

LOADING SCREEN PT. 2

If you’re tailing the Cook receiving yards play and want some action on the other side of the ball, maybe look to fade the Broncos’ backfield in receiving yards. Denver is the worst team at generating yards on the screen game (3.7 yards per attempt) and neither Phillip Lindsay nor Royce Freeman has topped 17 yards receiving in the last two weeks. In the only game Brandon Allen has started at quarterback, Lindsay wasn’t targeted at all and Freeman saw one target which he lost a yard on.

Feel confident in taking Lindsay’s Under receiving yards on anything greater than 19 and Freeman’s Under on any number greater than 25.

AIN’T FADING THE FINS NOW

The best team ATS over the last five weeks has been the Miami Dolphins. The former 0-7 team has rattled off five-straight wins ATS and face a Buffalo Bills team that has zero offensive identity of late and trailed the Dolphins by five points heading into the fourth quarter just four weeks ago.

We are a little bearish on Miami hitting a sixth-straight win ATS but have no problem fading Josh Allen’s Bills who are putting up just 288 yards of total offense over the last three weeks, good for sixth-worst. Their once stellar defense now sits 12th in Wtd DVOA — 9th against the pass and 27th against the run.

The Bills needed 22 4th-quarter points in their last meeting to cover their team total and we don’t see Brian Daboll’s offense clearing 23.5 points since they are 2-5 O/U that total in their last seven.

Get on the Bills’ team total Under 23.5 now, as it may drop under this key number later in the week.