The NFL bets you need to make in Week 5

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Another NFL Sunday is upon us, and we’ve spent all week compiling the best betting angles – and not just for spread and totals – presenting our NFL picks for team totals, props and derivatives in our daily NFL betting predictions. So sit back, relax, and check out the best NFL bets for Week 5.

POT O’ COLTS

We have hit back-to-back weeks betting against the Indianapolis Colts run defense as they have allowed Josh Jacobs and Devonte Freeman to eclipse their rushing totals due to the absence of All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. Leonard won’t suit up this Sunday again versus the Kansas City Chiefs as well as both of their starting safeties. The Chiefs will obviously put up points in the Sunday night contest, but the first half is where our attention is.

The Chiefs are tops in the league, scoring an average of 21.8 first-half points through four games and that number jumps to 23.0 points at home. The Colts sit in the middle of the pack in first-points allowed but are coming off a Week 4 performance that saw them give up three first-quarter touchdowns to David Carr and the Oakland Raiders at home.

The Chiefs’ receivers are banged up, but they will get some assistance as running back Damien Williams should dress, aiding the passing game. Take the Chiefs’ first-half team total of 17.5 (+100) and hit the Over.

TUCK AND RUN

Who doesn’t love a quarterback hitting his Over on rushing yards? Nobody, that’s who. It may be the most enjoyable prop bet to watch. Here is a list of rushing QBs that we support this week.

Daniel Jones (22.5 yards): Danny Dimes, has cleared his totals in both weeks: 22.5 in Week 3 and 20.5 in Week 4. Over those two weeks, the Giants QB has rushed nine times for 61 yards.

DeShaun Watson (24.5): Being one of the most pressured QBs in the league allows Watson to sidestep sacks and take off. Watson is averaging over four rush attempts a game and will face off against the Falcons who let Marcus Mariota go Over his rushing total last week.

Gardiner Minshew (12.5): Uncle Minshew rushed just once last week for two yards but had 74 yards on the ground in Weeks 2 and 3. Carolina is the 24th most difficult fantasy matchup for QBs but they gave up 69 yards rushing to rookie QB Kyler Murray just two weeks ago.

FADING THE INFERIOR

With the Miami Dolphins on a bye, we will have to turn our fading attention to another tough-to-watch club.

Washington is paying +150 to score one point or more in the first quarter against the Patriots. That’s a good indicator of how bad things are in Washington these days. With Colt McCoy starting and Terry McLaurin questionable, we like Washington’s team total Under 13.5 points.

The New England Patriots defense has given up just a single touchdown this year and is averaging 6.8 points against per game. We doubt McCoy and his 28th-ranked offense in will double the Pats’ average points allowed. Take the Redskins Under 13.5 points.

QUICK AND EASY

Here’s a quick hitter: Ravens at Steelers shortest TD scored Over 1.5 yards. Quarterback sneaks are a big part of this prop and the Steelers don’t run the sneak because their offensive coordinator believes they are too dangerous for the quarterback.

BUMMER BENGALS’ BOSS IS BOTHERSOME

The Cincinnati Bengals looked like they belong in Miami-Washington territory after the Monday Nighter versus the Steelers. Head Coach Zac Taylor needs to take a lot of blame for the three-point performance.

Trailing by 21 points in the third quarter, the Bengals ran the ball three-straight times and ended up with a 7:6 run-to-pass ratio without a hurry-up in all of their third-quarter possessions.

If the Arizona Cardinals can muster any pass rush on Sunday, the league’s second-worst offensive line will keep on doing what they do best which is impede Dalton’s five-step drop and/or get him sacked.

We are backing the Bengals team total Under 25.5 points and wouldn’t call you crazy for hopping on the Cards at +3.0.

DUKE NUKEM

It seems wherever Duke Johnson goes, he is incredibly underutilized. His 146 rushing yards on 23 attempts this year leaves a lot to be desired but things aren’t all bad on the Duke front. On the positive side, Johnson out-snapped teammate Carlos Hyde last week 36-to-33 and ripped off a 40-yard trot — the offense’s biggest play of the day.

Oh, you want more Johnson love? DJ sits third amongst RBs in missed tackles forced per touch and ranks second in yards per touch. In fact, the Houston Texans runner hasn’t finished outside the top-10 in yards per touch since 2015.

With a low rushing total of 30.5 yards, we are on the Over and hope Texans head coach Bill O’Brien leans on the run against an Atlanta Falcons defense that surrendered 138 yards on the ground last week.

LONESTAR LET DOWN

The Dallas Cowboys banged-up receiving core may be in for a tough day heading into their Week 5 matchup versus the Green Bay Packers’ No. 5 DVOA pass defense.

Over their last three games, the Packers’ secondary has held opponents’ top TWO receivers to an average of 2.6 catches for 43 yards. That’s less than 90 yards to WR1 and WR2 combined. PFF’s top-graded corner Jaire Alexander will lock up with Amari Cooper who has been held to under 50 yards receiving in two of his last three games.

Dallas’ new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, will be facing his first test of adversity coming off the offense’s poorest performance in Week 4. Moore’s offense averaged 481 yards from Weeks 1 through 3 against NFL bottom feeders but was held to 257 total yards against a bonafide New Orleans Saints defense.

We are backing the Under on the Cowboys’ team total of 25.5.

BARKS HAS BITE

Road dogs went an impressive 7-2 last week which brings their 2019 record to 27-12-1. Looking deeper into those numbers, road dogs with closing spreads of six or less finished 5-3 SU last week and are 18-12 SU so far in 2019.

This week we have eight teams that fit the mold: Arizona +3; Atlanta +5; Buffalo +3; Jacksonville +3.5; Tampa Bay +3; Denver +6; Green Bay +3; Cleveland +3.

Of that group, we like Buffalo to beat a Titans team that struggles to win back-to-back games. Jacksonville has been impressive and playing competitive football as they are 3-0 ATS in their last three but that magic has to end soon. We like the Broncos +6 the most as their tough luck has to end soon, even without Bradley Chubb.

Facing a divisional rival in the Los Angeles Chargers, we are predicting a close, hard-fought game between two underperforming teams. Denver has won three of the last five games on the road at the Chargers and are in win-now mode or else things could get real ugly with a tough schedule ahead of them.

CALLOWAY INN

The San Francisco 49ers viewed cornerback Emmanuel Moseley as their No.4 corner just two weeks ago. This week, versus the Cleveland Browns, Moseley will start opposite Richard Sherman.

With the Niners sporting the league’s second-best DVOA defense, we expect Freddie Kitchens and the Browns to exploit one of the few weaknesses on the 49ers defensive front.

The five-foot-ten Moseley will have his hands full as he will draw either Odell Beckham (likely to be shadowed by Sherman) or Antonio Calloway — fresh off his four-game suspension.

We are going to play the Over on Calloway’s total receiving yards of anything under 45 yards.

BILLS DEFENSE KEEPS ROLLING

Coming into Week 4, the last time Tom Brady had a quarterback rating of less than 46, the movie Borat was shocking audiences and Sean Paul was raising the temperature. The Buffalo Bills defense did something that hadn’t been done since 2006: holding the league’s prince to a QB rating of 45.9. This week they get to tee off on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans put up 17 points in their only home game this year against the Colts’ 30th ranked DVOA defense and were held to under 20 regulation points in their first five home games last year. Tennessee has also had trouble putting drives together as they have the second-most punts through four games.

With the Bills defense showing they are an elite group last week, look for a slow, low-scoring game. Hit the Titans team total Under 20.5.

JAMES AND THE GIANT PROP

New England Patriots running back Rex Burkhead was limited in practice again on Wednesday. The lingering foot injury held him to just one touch in Week 4 after 17 touches in Week 3. With Sony Michel’s struggles, look for an expanded workload for James White.

White led his team in targets last week with 10 which he turned into 57 yards on eight catches. He also led the backfield with a 52 percent share of snaps.

His opponent this week is Washington, which allowed New York Giants’ Wayne Gallman to go 6/55/1 through the air last week in his first career start. Washington is lacking skilled players to cover running backs as they have three linebackers on I.R. and their starter du jour, Jon Bostic, has a poor PFF grade of 55 this year.

We are buying the Over on a reception total below six and an Over on a receiving yards total of 39 and below.

COUSINS CAN CUT IT

We sure hope Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins doesn’t see how his name is being treated on social media. Cousins, set to make $27.5 million this year, has a worse total QBR than the Jets’ Luke Falk and averaging just 169 yards passing a game — only better than the Dolphins.

Oddly, the Vikings QB has a 60 percent adjusted completion rate of passes over twenty yards that equates to a 144 quarterback rating. Those numbers are great, the only problem is he has attempted just 10 passes of 20 yards or more.

Enter the New York Giants. The Giants secondary is allowing 279 yards to passers — Washington QBs sadly included in that number — and has five players currently on the I.R. Jameis Winston threw for 380 yards in Week 3 against the Giants, Josh Allen had 253 yards in Week 2 and Dak Prescott torched them for 405 yards in the opener.

With nobody giving Cousins a chance, we don’t mind putting some money on a guy down on his luck. If you can stomach it, take Kirk Cousins Over 232.5 passing yards.

SACK-O’-LANTERN

Last week we won a little money on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The “King of Inconsistency” will face off the Buffalo Bills as a 3-point favorite. We aren’t going to put our winnings back on MarMar but will be hoping he and Barkley will be hitting the dirt early and often.

Although Mariota has yet to throw an interception this year, he has been sacked 17 times – fourth-most in the league. With Josh Allen still in concussion protocol, Barkley will have to face a Titans defense that is getting to opposing QBs 3.2 times a game while the Bills are allowing 2.5 sacks a game.

You may have to wait closer to game time to get this prop but when it opens, hit the Over 5.5 sacks (value at O/U 6.5 as well).

CASHING ON THE CARDS

Last week we mentioned how terrible the Arizona Cardinals have been at defending tight ends this year. Seattle’s Will Dissly hit the trifecta by going Over on his receptions, yards and scored a plus-money TD in the second quarter. This week Tyler Eifert will get his chance to pad the stats in Week 5’s edition of Cashing On the Cards.

The Cincinnati Bengals TE has seen at least five targets in three of his four games this year and will have a better time making more of his snaps as the Cardinals are averaging a passer rating of 118.4 to opponents – ahead of just the Dolphins. The Cincy offensive line got embarrassed on the national stage Monday night and will be a motivated to give Andy Dalton a little more time to pass.

We’re going back on the trifecta with Eifert’s unassuming totals: Over 2.5 receptions (-128), Over 30.5 yards (-114), and a touchdown anytime (+224).

Unbeaten Aztecs to start hot, and the NCAA basketball best bets you need to make this weekend

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The San Diego State Aztecs will look to keep their perfect season going on Sunday, while Texas Tech and Kentucky tangle in a matchup between two Top-20 teams on Saturday night. Rohit Ponnaiya digs into the college basketball odds and brings you his favorite bets and predictions for the weekend.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The game of the night Friday will take place in the Big East as Marquette tangles with Butler. After falling 76-61 to Villanova on Tuesday (which made us a bit of money), Butler has now lost three straight games after beginning the season with a 15-1 record. In Butler’s last three games they’ve allowed 112.3 points per 100 possessions and a large reason for that is that they’ve been sending opposing teams to the line. Over that three game span they’ve given foes an average of 26.7 free throw attempts per game.

That’s bad news against a Marquette squad that has scored at least 82 points in each of it’s last three games and is led by the leading scorer in the country in Markus Howard. Howard has averaged 35 points per game over his last five contests and has averaged 12.5 FTA over his last two. As a team the Golden Eagles know how to get to the line, attempting 23.6 free throws per game, 18th highest in the country. We like the Over 64.5 on Marquette’s team total. 

EVERYTHING IS BIGGER IN TEXAS

Two Top-20 teams face off in the Lone Star State on Saturday as the Kentucky Wildcats travel to Lubbock to face Texas Tech at 6:00 p.m ET. This matchup should get plenty of action with the Red Raiders coming off a Final Four finish while Kentucky is…well Kentucky.

Texas Tech is coming off a road loss against TCU but is 9-1 at home. Chris Beard’s Red Raiders are known for their defensive intensity and this year’s squad ranks 7th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rating system. That said, Kentucky ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency and 32nd in offensive efficiency (while Texas Tech ranks 97th on offense).

Kentucky has three guards (Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley and Tyrese Maxey) that love to apply pressure on opposing ball-handlers while also being able to create their own shot. With Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery, Calipari’s squad has a (pardon the pun) big edge in size and rebounding ability. And unlike past editions of the Wildcats, this team has plenty of veteran experience so don’t expect them to be rattled playing in hostile territory.

We’re expecting Texas Tech to have the chalk and backing UK as the likely underdog, but if public action makes the Wildcats the faves the value will be on the Red Raiders.

HOUSE OF THE RISING SUN DEVILS

It’s the battle of Arizona on Saturday night as the Arizona State Sun Devils host the Arizona Wildcats. These teams met up on January 4, with the Wildcats routing ASU by a score of 75-47. But don’t expect to see a repeat of that score with the Sun Devils now enjoying home-court advantage.

The Wildcats led by guard Nico Mannion and big man Zeke Nnaji are 13-5 but they have been very beatable when playing outside of Tucson. They’re 9-2 ATS at home but just 1-6 ATS on the road and at neutral sites. They have an average scoring margin of plus-26.6 ppg at home but that falls to minus-1 ppg away from home.

The Sun Devils also play way better in front of their home crowd, outscoring opponents by a margin of plus-15.7 ppg in Tempe, compared to minus-7.2 ppg when they have to travel. Take the home side to cover as underdogs.

THE LAST OF THE UNBEATENS

The last unbeaten team in the country are the No. 4 San Diego Aztecs who head to Vegas to take on the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels on Sunday. The Aztecs have an aggressive defense and have been holding opponents to just 56.7 ppg on 36.7 percent shooting. But SDSU has been effective on the offensive end of the floor as well, ranking 14th in the country in offensive efficiency.

UNLV has been solid, winning seven of the their last nine games and going 6-3 ATS, but they might be out of their depth here. Their two losses during that span were by 14 points against Nevada and seven points against Boise State. The Aztecs beat Nevada by 13 points and clobbered BSU by 18 after leading by 23 points at halftime.

UNLV has been sloppy with the ball turning the ball over 14.6 times per game, second-worst among all Mountain West teams. SDSU has just 11.1 turnovers per game on offense while their pesky defense forces 15.2 TO per game. The full game spread might be a bit too rich for our blood but with the Aztecs fifth in the nation with an average first-half scoring margin of plus-9.2 ppg, look for them to cover the 1H spread. 

MID-MAJOR TO WATCH: DAYTON (17-2 SU, 11-8 ATS, 13-6 O/U)

Dayton is flying up the rankings currently sitting at No. 7. Their 17-2 record is even more impressive when you consider that both defeats were in overtime to quality opponents, falling 90-84 to Kansas and 78-76 to Colorado.

Led by forward Obi Toppin (19.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 62.3 percent shooting) the Flyers are first in the country in field goal percentage at 52.5 percent and rank third in scoring with 83 ppg. On Saturday they take on the Richmond Spiders who can also fill up the basket converting at a clip of 47.5 percent from the field, including a sizzling 57.6 percent from the floor over their last three games. The Over is worth looking at.

NATIONAL TITLE ODDS

Gonzaga isn’t a program to sleep on anymore, currently sitting at No. 1 in the polls and with the best odds to win the National Championship at +1000. The Zags have the top rated offense in the nation, putting up 88.8 ppg on 50.6 percent shooting and those numbers jump up to 93.5 ppg and 52.5 percent at home.

On Saturday, Gonzaga hosts Pacific and will probably be favored by more than 20 points. Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at home between the two teams dating back to 2016, and the average score of those games was 80-52 in favor of Gonzaga.

If you want to look at a team that’s tumbled down the odds board look no further than the Memphis Tigers who came into the season at +1300 after a terrific recruiting class. After top freshman James Wiseman was suspended and then chose to leave the school, Memphis has looked ugly, coming off a 80-40 smackdown at the hands of Tulsa on Wednesday night. The Tigers currently sit at +6000 odds and even that might be generous. Memphis will try to get back on track on Saturday as they host SMU.

BETTING TRENDS

• By holding Memphis to just 40 points, Tulsa managed to cash the Under for the sixth game in a row. The Golden Hurricanes are 15-4 to the Under and will take on UConn on Sunday. Thanks to a defense that ranks inside the Top-50 teams in the country in opponent FG percentage and an offense that ranks outside the Top-250 in FG percentage, the Huskies have also been a great Under bet, going below the total in 12 of their last 16 contests.

• Virginia has been awful on offense, terrific on defense and plays at the slowest pace in Div 1. But oddsmakers might set the total for their Sunday matchup on the road against Wake Forest a tad too low. The Demon Deacons have gone 8-0-1 to the Over in their last nine games and are 7-1 O/U at home this season.

• Austin Peay is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season. On Saturday, the Governors will host the Belmont Bruins in a Ohio Valley Conference matchup. The Bruins are coming off a 10-point loss on the road against Murray State and have failed to cover in their last two away contests.

NHL Midseason betting review: Stanley Cup futures odds and best bets

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With the NHL heading into the All-Star break we take a look the updated futures odds to win the Stanley Cup as well as the best and worst teams to wager on in terms of Moneyline, Puckline and Over/Under bets.

Despite Washington leading the way for the Presidents’ Trophy this season, Tampa Bay still has the best odds to win the Stanley Cup. The Lightning are followed by the Boston Bruins and the defending Stanley Cup champions the St. Louis Blues.

On the other hand, the Toronto Maple Leafs have fallen outside the Top-5 and now sit at +2000, while the San Jose Sharks have plummeted from a Stanley Cup contender to a +8000 long shot.

Here are every teams’ odds to win the Stanley Cup, courtesy of the Superbook at Westgate:

Teams Odds to win Stanley Cup (as of Jan 23)
Tampa Bay Lightning +600
Boston Bruins +800
St. Louis Blues +800
Washington Capitals +1,000
Colorado Avalanche +1,000
Vegas Golden Knights +1,000
Pittsburgh Penguins +1,200
Dallas Stars +1,200
Arizona Coyotes +1,600
Florida Panthers +2,000
Toronto Maple Leafs +2,000
Vancouver Canucks +2,000
Edmonton Oilers +2,500
Calgary Flames +2,500
New York Islanders +4,000
Carolina Hurricanes +4,000
Nashville Predators +4,000
Columbus Blue Jackets +4,000
Philadelphia Flyers +5,000
Winnpeg Jets +5,000
Minnesota Wild +6,000
San Jose Sharks +8,000
Montreal Canadiens +10,000
New York Rangers +10,000
Buffalo Sabres +10,000
Chicago Blackhawks +10,000
Los Angelas Kings +50,000
Anahiem Ducks +100,000
Ottawa Senators +200,000
New Jersey Devils +200,000
Detroit Red Wings +1,000,000

The Capitals don’t just have the best record in the league, they’ve also been the best Over bet as well as the top team to back on the moneyline returning a profit of +9.35 units for bettors this season.

Thanks to rookie goalie Elvis Merzlikins and a group of forwards that can’t find the back of the net, the Columbus Blue Jackets have been the NHL’s best Under bet. The top team to back on the puckline as a favorite has been the surprising Vancouver Canucks who lead the Pacific Division.

While the Golden Knights were sweating sportsbooks when they made their Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Finals two years ago, oddsmakers have made some of that money back this season as the Knights have been the second-worst money team in the league. The Knights are still way ahead of Detroit who has cost bettors dearly with a loss of almost 20 units.

BEST OVER BETS

Teams Over/Under
Washington Capitals 31-18
Florida Panthers 30-17
Nashville Predators 28-17
Toronto Maple Leafs 28-18
Tampa Bay Lightning 27-20

BEST UNDER BETS

Teams Over/Under
Colombus Blue Jackets 18-32
Dallas Stars 16-29
Carolina Hurricanes 21-29
San Jose Sharks 21-28
Calgary Flames 20-27

BEST MONEY BETS

Teams Total Money Won (based on 100$ bets)
Washington Capitals $935
New York Islanders $700
Colombus Blue Jackets $605
Pittsburgh Penguins $596
New York Rangers $567

WORST MONEY BETS

Teams Total Money Won (based on 100$ bets)
Detroit Red Wings $-1992
Las Vegas Golden Knights $-1010
Los Angelas Kings $-916
San Jose Sharks $-895
Toronto Maple Leafs $-829

BEST PUCKLINE TEAMS AT -1.5 

Teams Total Money Won as Puckline Favorite (PL record as favorite)
Vancouver Canucks $840 (11-12)
Colorado Avalanche $771 (14-14)
Chicago Blackhawks $480 (7-8)
Florida Panthers $410 (13-17)
New York Rangers $375 (5-5)