Another NFL Sunday is upon us, and we’ve spent all week compiling the best betting angles – and not just for spread and totals – presenting our NFL picks for team totals, props and derivatives in our daily NFL betting predictions. So sit back, relax, and check out the best NFL bets for Week 5.
POT O’ COLTS
We have hit back-to-back weeks betting against the Indianapolis Colts run defense as they have allowed Josh Jacobs and Devonte Freeman to eclipse their rushing totals due to the absence of All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. Leonard won’t suit up this Sunday again versus the Kansas City Chiefs as well as both of their starting safeties. The Chiefs will obviously put up points in the Sunday night contest, but the first half is where our attention is.
The Chiefs are tops in the league, scoring an average of 21.8 first-half points through four games and that number jumps to 23.0 points at home. The Colts sit in the middle of the pack in first-points allowed but are coming off a Week 4 performance that saw them give up three first-quarter touchdowns to David Carr and the Oakland Raiders at home.
The Chiefs’ receivers are banged up, but they will get some assistance as running back Damien Williams should dress, aiding the passing game. Take the Chiefs’ first-half team total of 17.5 (+100) and hit the Over.
TUCK AND RUN
Who doesn’t love a quarterback hitting his Over on rushing yards? Nobody, that’s who. It may be the most enjoyable prop bet to watch. Here is a list of rushing QBs that we support this week.
Daniel Jones (22.5 yards): Danny Dimes, has cleared his totals in both weeks: 22.5 in Week 3 and 20.5 in Week 4. Over those two weeks, the Giants QB has rushed nine times for 61 yards.
DeShaun Watson (24.5): Being one of the most pressured QBs in the league allows Watson to sidestep sacks and take off. Watson is averaging over four rush attempts a game and will face off against the Falcons who let Marcus Mariota go Over his rushing total last week.
Gardiner Minshew (12.5): Uncle Minshew rushed just once last week for two yards but had 74 yards on the ground in Weeks 2 and 3. Carolina is the 24th most difficult fantasy matchup for QBs but they gave up 69 yards rushing to rookie QB Kyler Murray just two weeks ago.
FADING THE INFERIOR
With the Miami Dolphins on a bye, we will have to turn our fading attention to another tough-to-watch club.
Washington is paying +150 to score one point or more in the first quarter against the Patriots. That’s a good indicator of how bad things are in Washington these days. With Colt McCoy starting and Terry McLaurin questionable, we like Washington’s team total Under 13.5 points.
The New England Patriots defense has given up just a single touchdown this year and is averaging 6.8 points against per game. We doubt McCoy and his 28th-ranked offense in will double the Pats’ average points allowed. Take the Redskins Under 13.5 points.
QUICK AND EASY
Here’s a quick hitter: Ravens at Steelers shortest TD scored Over 1.5 yards. Quarterback sneaks are a big part of this prop and the Steelers don’t run the sneak because their offensive coordinator believes they are too dangerous for the quarterback.
BUMMER BENGALS’ BOSS IS BOTHERSOME
The Cincinnati Bengals looked like they belong in Miami-Washington territory after the Monday Nighter versus the Steelers. Head Coach Zac Taylor needs to take a lot of blame for the three-point performance.
Trailing by 21 points in the third quarter, the Bengals ran the ball three-straight times and ended up with a 7:6 run-to-pass ratio without a hurry-up in all of their third-quarter possessions.
If the Arizona Cardinals can muster any pass rush on Sunday, the league’s second-worst offensive line will keep on doing what they do best which is impede Dalton’s five-step drop and/or get him sacked.
We are backing the Bengals team total Under 25.5 points and wouldn’t call you crazy for hopping on the Cards at +3.0.
DUKE NUKEM
It seems wherever Duke Johnson goes, he is incredibly underutilized. His 146 rushing yards on 23 attempts this year leaves a lot to be desired but things aren’t all bad on the Duke front. On the positive side, Johnson out-snapped teammate Carlos Hyde last week 36-to-33 and ripped off a 40-yard trot — the offense’s biggest play of the day.
Oh, you want more Johnson love? DJ sits third amongst RBs in missed tackles forced per touch and ranks second in yards per touch. In fact, the Houston Texans runner hasn’t finished outside the top-10 in yards per touch since 2015.
With a low rushing total of 30.5 yards, we are on the Over and hope Texans head coach Bill O’Brien leans on the run against an Atlanta Falcons defense that surrendered 138 yards on the ground last week.
LONESTAR LET DOWN
The Dallas Cowboys banged-up receiving core may be in for a tough day heading into their Week 5 matchup versus the Green Bay Packers’ No. 5 DVOA pass defense.
Over their last three games, the Packers’ secondary has held opponents’ top TWO receivers to an average of 2.6 catches for 43 yards. That’s less than 90 yards to WR1 and WR2 combined. PFF’s top-graded corner Jaire Alexander will lock up with Amari Cooper who has been held to under 50 yards receiving in two of his last three games.
Dallas’ new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, will be facing his first test of adversity coming off the offense’s poorest performance in Week 4. Moore’s offense averaged 481 yards from Weeks 1 through 3 against NFL bottom feeders but was held to 257 total yards against a bonafide New Orleans Saints defense.
We are backing the Under on the Cowboys’ team total of 25.5.
BARKS HAS BITE
Road dogs went an impressive 7-2 last week which brings their 2019 record to 27-12-1. Looking deeper into those numbers, road dogs with closing spreads of six or less finished 5-3 SU last week and are 18-12 SU so far in 2019.
This week we have eight teams that fit the mold: Arizona +3; Atlanta +5; Buffalo +3; Jacksonville +3.5; Tampa Bay +3; Denver +6; Green Bay +3; Cleveland +3.
Of that group, we like Buffalo to beat a Titans team that struggles to win back-to-back games. Jacksonville has been impressive and playing competitive football as they are 3-0 ATS in their last three but that magic has to end soon. We like the Broncos +6 the most as their tough luck has to end soon, even without Bradley Chubb.
Facing a divisional rival in the Los Angeles Chargers, we are predicting a close, hard-fought game between two underperforming teams. Denver has won three of the last five games on the road at the Chargers and are in win-now mode or else things could get real ugly with a tough schedule ahead of them.
CALLOWAY INN
The San Francisco 49ers viewed cornerback Emmanuel Moseley as their No.4 corner just two weeks ago. This week, versus the Cleveland Browns, Moseley will start opposite Richard Sherman.
With the Niners sporting the league’s second-best DVOA defense, we expect Freddie Kitchens and the Browns to exploit one of the few weaknesses on the 49ers defensive front.
The five-foot-ten Moseley will have his hands full as he will draw either Odell Beckham (likely to be shadowed by Sherman) or Antonio Calloway — fresh off his four-game suspension.
We are going to play the Over on Calloway’s total receiving yards of anything under 45 yards.
BILLS DEFENSE KEEPS ROLLING
Coming into Week 4, the last time Tom Brady had a quarterback rating of less than 46, the movie Borat was shocking audiences and Sean Paul was raising the temperature. The Buffalo Bills defense did something that hadn’t been done since 2006: holding the league’s prince to a QB rating of 45.9. This week they get to tee off on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans put up 17 points in their only home game this year against the Colts’ 30th ranked DVOA defense and were held to under 20 regulation points in their first five home games last year. Tennessee has also had trouble putting drives together as they have the second-most punts through four games.
With the Bills defense showing they are an elite group last week, look for a slow, low-scoring game. Hit the Titans team total Under 20.5.
JAMES AND THE GIANT PROP
New England Patriots running back Rex Burkhead was limited in practice again on Wednesday. The lingering foot injury held him to just one touch in Week 4 after 17 touches in Week 3. With Sony Michel’s struggles, look for an expanded workload for James White.
White led his team in targets last week with 10 which he turned into 57 yards on eight catches. He also led the backfield with a 52 percent share of snaps.
His opponent this week is Washington, which allowed New York Giants’ Wayne Gallman to go 6/55/1 through the air last week in his first career start. Washington is lacking skilled players to cover running backs as they have three linebackers on I.R. and their starter du jour, Jon Bostic, has a poor PFF grade of 55 this year.
We are buying the Over on a reception total below six and an Over on a receiving yards total of 39 and below.
COUSINS CAN CUT IT
We sure hope Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins doesn’t see how his name is being treated on social media. Cousins, set to make $27.5 million this year, has a worse total QBR than the Jets’ Luke Falk and averaging just 169 yards passing a game — only better than the Dolphins.
Oddly, the Vikings QB has a 60 percent adjusted completion rate of passes over twenty yards that equates to a 144 quarterback rating. Those numbers are great, the only problem is he has attempted just 10 passes of 20 yards or more.
Enter the New York Giants. The Giants secondary is allowing 279 yards to passers — Washington QBs sadly included in that number — and has five players currently on the I.R. Jameis Winston threw for 380 yards in Week 3 against the Giants, Josh Allen had 253 yards in Week 2 and Dak Prescott torched them for 405 yards in the opener.
With nobody giving Cousins a chance, we don’t mind putting some money on a guy down on his luck. If you can stomach it, take Kirk Cousins Over 232.5 passing yards.
SACK-O’-LANTERN
Last week we won a little money on Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The “King of Inconsistency” will face off the Buffalo Bills as a 3-point favorite. We aren’t going to put our winnings back on MarMar but will be hoping he and Barkley will be hitting the dirt early and often.
Although Mariota has yet to throw an interception this year, he has been sacked 17 times – fourth-most in the league. With Josh Allen still in concussion protocol, Barkley will have to face a Titans defense that is getting to opposing QBs 3.2 times a game while the Bills are allowing 2.5 sacks a game.
You may have to wait closer to game time to get this prop but when it opens, hit the Over 5.5 sacks (value at O/U 6.5 as well).
CASHING ON THE CARDS
Last week we mentioned how terrible the Arizona Cardinals have been at defending tight ends this year. Seattle’s Will Dissly hit the trifecta by going Over on his receptions, yards and scored a plus-money TD in the second quarter. This week Tyler Eifert will get his chance to pad the stats in Week 5’s edition of Cashing On the Cards.
The Cincinnati Bengals TE has seen at least five targets in three of his four games this year and will have a better time making more of his snaps as the Cardinals are averaging a passer rating of 118.4 to opponents – ahead of just the Dolphins. The Cincy offensive line got embarrassed on the national stage Monday night and will be a motivated to give Andy Dalton a little more time to pass.
We’re going back on the trifecta with Eifert’s unassuming totals: Over 2.5 receptions (-128), Over 30.5 yards (-114), and a touchdown anytime (+224).
