It’s Wednesday, which means we start poking and prodding the NFL Week 4 odds for the best value bets on the board. We’re not only looking at pointspread picks and Over/Under predictions, but we dive into derivatives, team and player props, and more with our NFL best bets for this week’s NFL action.
HOLD ON TIGHT
The Arizona Cardinals have been getting crushed by opposing tight ends through three games. In total, the Cardinals have allowed 20 catches for 318 yards and four scores to the position. The player most responsible for this is safety D.J. Swearinger. The man who was unwanted in Washington has a PFF grade of 45.9 and has allowed over a 70 percent completion rate.
Up next in the plus matchup is Seattle Seahawks TE Will Dissly, who has three touchdowns on 11 catches over his last two games. With quarterback Russel Wilson proving he can sling it with the best — 706 yards passing in his past two outings — Dissly has a great chance to go Over any of his props this week.
His prop markets will open soon and we like the Overs on his reception total at less than five, receiving yards at less than 56 and will certainly be playing his anytime score prop, which will be plus money.
PRIME TIME 6-POINT TEASER
Last week we hit our three-team, 6-point, prime time teaser (+160) with three Unders. This week’s prime time games may be forcing us in the other direction.
PHI/GBY Over 39: The Philadelphia Eagles own the sixth-worst defense in points per play but have a Top-10 scoring offense which works well for this teased total. Their defense is averaging three touchdowns against some poor offenses — Washington, Atlanta and Detroit. We see Wentz and Rodgers putting up some points on Thursday.
DAL/NO Over 41: Combined, the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints have eclipsed this total in four of their six games. Dallas is a Top-3 offense in yards per game while scoring three red-zone touchdowns a game this year.
The Saints showed they aren’t ready to roll over and die with Teddy Bridgewater under center and are still a threat to put up points on the turf in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, especially against a Dallas team who has faced the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants.
CIN/PIT Over 37.5: This one scares me the most, but ultimately this is a great matchup for points as the Cincinnati Bengals No. 3 passing offense squares off against the Pittsburgh’s second-worst passing defense. With both teams in the bottom-eight in yards per rush attempt, look for the Bengals and Steelers to settle Monday’s match through the air. Maybe even look for the special team or defensive score prop (+225)
We need to put this one out there while the stink of the Washington Redskins is still fresh in our olfactory senses. The hot mess that is the Redskins has been bad, but especially bad in the first quarter this year.
In their last 12 games, the team with taxation but no representation has scored a total of …one touchdown in the opening frame. If you watched Monday Night Football, then you know that a TD isn’t happening anytime soon with that quarterback play, a short week and a divisional game on deck.
Washington Under 0.5 first-quarter touchdowns is too costly at -175 while its first-quarter team total of 3.5 is tempting, but not at -152. If you can find better odds for those bets or don’t mind the juice, take them.
We’re going to grab the first-quarter Under 7.5 (+105) as we hope the Redskins try to hide their passing game and Daniel Jones struggles early after last week’s roller coaster.
KICKING IT IN L.A.
Tampa Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has left some things to be desired when it comes to execution. The former first-overall pick sits 25th in QBR, below Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen.
The Bucs have scored a touchdown on just 27 percent of their red-zone trips this year — only better than the Miami Dolphins. This is made even worse by the fact that Tampa Bay is averaging the 10th most red-zone scoring attempts per game. We won’t say no to you if you want to play the Buccaneers’ first score FG (+137).
It makes sense that Jameis and his offense are tied for the lead the league in field goals attempted per game at three. The Los Angeles Rams are also averaging three three-point tries a game which makes the Over 3.5 field goals (-120) a great play, in our opinion. With two struggling offenses and a pair of defenses that are allowing the most and third-most field goal attempts a game, this is our spot for this week’s kicking prop.
SAY IT AIN’T SO, SONY
We’re going back to fading Sony Michel after cashing on his Under 83.5 rushing yards last week. Sometimes you have to stick with what’s working, or not working in Sony’s case.
The running back has still forced one missed tackle on 45 rushing attempts with 1.67 yards after contact per attempt and blue skies aren’t on the forecast for last year’s 900-plus yard runner. Michel saw just 22 percent of the offensive snaps last week in a nothing game against the Jets.
With Rex Burkhead getting more action (74 percent) and facing a Buffalo Bills rushing defense that is allowing just 88 rushing yards a game, we’re going back-to-back weeks on the Michel’s Under and will take it as low as 55 yards.