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Cash in on Cardinals’ troubles with tight ends, and NFL bets you need to make in Week 4

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It’s Wednesday, which means we start poking and prodding the NFL Week 4 odds for the best value bets on the board. We’re not only looking at pointspread picks and Over/Under predictions, but we dive into derivatives, team and player props, and more with our NFL best bets for this week’s NFL action. 

HOLD ON TIGHT

The Arizona Cardinals have been getting crushed by opposing tight ends through three games. In total, the Cardinals have allowed 20 catches for 318 yards and four scores to the position. The player most responsible for this is safety D.J. Swearinger. The man who was unwanted in Washington has a PFF grade of 45.9 and has allowed over a 70 percent completion rate.

Up next in the plus matchup is Seattle Seahawks TE Will Dissly, who has three touchdowns on 11 catches over his last two games. With quarterback Russel Wilson proving he can sling it with the best — 706 yards passing in his past two outings — Dissly has a great chance to go Over any of his props this week.

His prop markets will open soon and we like the Overs on his reception total at less than five, receiving yards at less than 56 and will certainly be playing his anytime score prop, which will be plus money.

PRIME TIME 6-POINT TEASER

Last week we hit our three-team, 6-point, prime time teaser (+160) with three Unders. This week’s prime time games may be forcing us in the other direction.

PHI/GBY Over 39: The Philadelphia Eagles own the sixth-worst defense in points per play but have a Top-10 scoring offense which works well for this teased total. Their defense is averaging three touchdowns against some poor offenses — Washington, Atlanta and Detroit. We see Wentz and Rodgers putting up some points on Thursday.

DAL/NO Over 41: Combined, the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints have eclipsed this total in four of their six games. Dallas is a Top-3 offense in yards per game while scoring three red-zone touchdowns a game this year.

The Saints showed they aren’t ready to roll over and die with Teddy Bridgewater under center and are still a threat to put up points on the turf in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, especially against a Dallas team who has faced the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants.

CIN/PIT Over 37.5: This one scares me the most, but ultimately this is a great matchup for points as the Cincinnati Bengals No. 3 passing offense squares off against the Pittsburgh’s second-worst passing defense. With both teams in the bottom-eight in yards per rush attempt, look for the Bengals and Steelers to settle Monday’s match through the air. Maybe even look for the special team or defensive score prop (+225)

 

CAPITAL NONE

We need to put this one out there while the stink of the Washington Redskins is still fresh in our olfactory senses. The hot mess that is the Redskins has been bad, but especially bad in the first quarter this year.

In their last 12 games, the team with taxation but no representation has scored a total of …one touchdown in the opening frame. If you watched Monday Night Football, then you know that a TD isn’t happening anytime soon with that quarterback play, a short week and a divisional game on deck.

Washington Under 0.5 first-quarter touchdowns is too costly at -175 while its first-quarter team total of 3.5 is tempting, but not at -152. If you can find better odds for those bets or don’t mind the juice, take them.

We’re going to grab the first-quarter Under 7.5 (+105) as we hope the Redskins try to hide their passing game and Daniel Jones struggles early after last week’s roller coaster.

KICKING IT IN L.A.

Tampa Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has left some things to be desired when it comes to execution. The former first-overall pick sits 25th in QBR, below Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen.

The Bucs have scored a touchdown on just 27 percent of their red-zone trips this year — only better than the Miami Dolphins. This is made even worse by the fact that Tampa Bay is averaging the 10th most red-zone scoring attempts per game. We won’t say no to you if you want to play the Buccaneers’ first score FG (+137).

It makes sense that Jameis and his offense are tied for the lead the league in field goals attempted per game at three. The Los Angeles Rams are also averaging three three-point tries a game which makes the Over 3.5 field goals (-120) a great play, in our opinion. With two struggling offenses and a pair of defenses that are allowing the most and third-most field goal attempts a game, this is our spot for this week’s kicking prop.

 

SAY IT AIN’T SO, SONY

We’re going back to fading Sony Michel after cashing on his Under 83.5 rushing yards last week. Sometimes you have to stick with what’s working, or not working in Sony’s case.

The running back has still forced one missed tackle on 45 rushing attempts with 1.67 yards after contact per attempt and blue skies aren’t on the forecast for last year’s 900-plus yard runner. Michel saw just 22 percent of the offensive snaps last week in a nothing game against the Jets.

With Rex Burkhead getting more action (74 percent) and facing a Buffalo Bills rushing defense that is allowing just 88 rushing yards a game, we’re going back-to-back weeks on the Michel’s Under and will take it as low as 55 yards.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook