Week 3 of the NFL schedule started to separate the contenders from the pretenders, which is reflected in the odds to win Super Bowl LIV.
Plenty of teams moved up and down the NFL futures board after this week’s action, and Jason Logan points out the most notable climbs and falls as well as the biggest jump in the NFL MVP odds.
BIGGEST RISE: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL LIV
OPEN: 20/1
POST-LUCK: 200/1
WEEK 3: 80/1
WEEK 4: 60/1
The 2-1 Colts are making Indianapolis fans forget all about Andrew Luck with their strong start to the season. And, if not for some botched kicks, this team would be 3-0 heading into a home game against the Oakland Raiders (Colts -7). It would seem, given this Sunday’s soft opponent, that Indy will be moving to 3-1 and these Super Bowl odds will once again slim heading into Week 5.
Indianapolis has played a controlled offense with new No. 1 Jacoby Brissett under center, sitting sixth in rushing yards per game (149.7) and holding on to the football for an average of 31:48 (ninth most TOP). The defense has hasn’t been overwhelming by any means but has done enough to give the offense a chance to win games.
Injuries are starting to stack up for the Colts on both sides of the ball, most notably top WR T.Y. Hilton who left Week 3 after re-aggravating a quad issue that limited him last week. His status for Sunday is up in the air as of Tuesday.
BIGGEST FALL: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL LIV
OPEN: 20/1
WEEK 3: 12/1
WEEK 4: 25/1
The Eagles are suddenly 1-2 to start 2019, more than doubling their payout in the Super Bowl futures after losing at home to Detroit on Sunday. Injuries are the biggest culprit for this club, with missing pieces in the passing game really showing up in Week 3, leading to some bad dropped balls (and some unbelievable shade being thrown at Nelson Agholor).
But looking deeper, slow starts continue to be the thorn in Philadelphia’s side. Last season, the Eagles averaged only 3.2 points per first quarter and put up goose eggs in the opening frame of the first two games of 2019. Philly scored 10 first-quarter points versus the Lions but followed that with a scoreless second quarter Sunday. This team has trailed at the half in seven of its last eight games with QB Carson Wentz taking snaps and has gone on to lose six of those seven matchups.
A short week won’t help the Eagles’ injury issues in Week 4, with the schedule sending them to Lambeau Field Thursday night. Philadelphia is a 4.5-point road underdog versus Green Bay and while it should get Alshon Jeffery back at WR, the defense will be missing some key bodies.
NFL MVP WATCH: DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS
ODDS TO WIN MVP
OPEN: 100/1
WEEK 3: 12/1
WEEK 4: 8/1
Nothing puffs up a stat line quite like playing some terrible defenses. That’s not taking away from what Prescott and this Cowboys offense has done – he’s made some incredible throws – but the first three opponents (Giants, Redskins, Dolphins) all rank near the bottom in yards allowed per play so far this year. And Week 4’s foe – the New Orleans Saints – is right there among those stagnant stop units, giving up 6.7 yards per play.
Prescott has amassed 920 yards on a 74.5 completion percentage (best in NFL), for 9.8 yards per completion, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. His 94.0 QBR is also tops in the NFL heading into Week 4. Sprinkle in the fact that the Cowboys are “America’s Team”, and you have some Texas-sized MVP hype for Mr. Rayne Dakota Prescott.
Dallas is 3-0 heading into Sunday night’s stay-over in New Orleans, giving about a field goal to the host Saints. Following that primetime matchup, the Cowboys are back home to face Green Bay in Week 5 – their toughest defensive test of 2019.
