Rams vs Browns NFL betting picks and predictions: L.A. primed to break out passing game

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The Cleveland Browns bounced back on Monday after a lackluster performance in the season opener, but now have to face a real test as they welcome the defending NFC champion Los Angeles Rams to Cleveland on Sunday Night. **video

The Rams enter this matchup 2-0 SU/ATS behind a healthy (for now) running game and a strong defense. But will that be enough to cover 3.5-point as a road favorite for this prime time matchup? From the opening kickoff to the final whistle, we break down the best ways to wager Sunday night football.

LOS ANGELES RAMS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (+3.5, 46.5 @ BETAMERICA)

QUICK HITTER

The NFL really is a “what have you done for me lately” league. For instance, the Rams are averaging 28.5 points per game through the first two weeks of the season. That’s sixth best in the league. But people are still wondering with is wrong with the L.A. offense that averaged 32.9 points per contest last season.

The Rams ground game behind Todd Gurley (whose knee is holding up for now) and Malcolm Brown has been effective, but the passing game hasn’t looked as sharp. But this matchup is set up for Sean McVay’s offense to break out.

The Browns pass defense is banged up, with their top two corners questionable, but worse than that, they just haven’t played very well. The ever-inconsistent Marcus Mariota picked them apart, and as much as everyone wants to make fun of Luke Falk, he still put up 200 yards in less than a full game.

Expect McVay to have something dialed up early and to take a lead into the second quarter.

Pick: Rams -0.5 (+120) First Quarter Spread

FIRST HALF BET

While the Rams seems set up to break out, who knows what you can expect out of the gates from the Browns. They looked awful in their Week 1 loss to Tennessee and you really can’t take anything away from their game against the Jets “B” squad last Monday. Well, maybe nothing positive.

The Browns looked lost on offense at times last week. It seemed like they were constantly slow to the line. And realistically, if it wasn’t for some great plays from Odell Beckham Jr. and Nick Chubb, that game against the Jets could have been a whole lot uglier.

And now they must go up against the likes of Aaron Donald and the Rams defense, which is once again showing it is a strong unit, ranking in the Top 10 in total yards, passing defense, rushing defense and points allowed. It could take a while for the Browns to get going in this one.

Pick: Browns Under 9.5 First Half Team Total (+100)

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

We already mentioned that we like the Rams passing offense to really get going in this one and that leads right into our favorite prop play of the game.

Jared Goff is averaging just 224 yards per game thus far this season, but could find success against this Browns secondary. Even if Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams weren’t listed as questionable, they haven’t played overly well this season anyway, particularly Ward. Titans rookie A.J. Brown burned Ward for 100 yards on three catches and then Robby Anderson grabbed four passes for 81 yards.

The Rams leading receiver varies from week-to-week, especially now that Cooper Kupp is back, but that depth will come in handy against the thin Browns secondary and we think that benefits steady Robert Woods the most. Woods continues to be Goff’s safety blanket making his receiving yards total too low in this one. Woods has eclipsed the current number of 64.5 in 14 of his last 17 regular season games. We like Kupp to go Over 69.5 yards as well, but if we have to take one, we’re going with Woods.

Pick: Robert Woods Over 64.5 Receiving Yards

FULL GAME TOTAL

This total hit the board at a nice high 51, and bettors promptly hammered the Under, moving the number all the way down to its current 47. This has to due with the fact that the Browns just haven’t looked very good so far. They have some good numbers on offense, but a lot of those came in garbage time against the Titans and from some big plays against the Jets. Not to mention Goff’s inefficacies this season and his struggles on the road from a year ago.

That said, has this number moved a touch too low? The Rams are set up well to score here. Gurley and Brown should find some rushing lanes against the Browns defense that struggled against Derrick Henry and still allowed LeV’eon Bell to get over 120 total yards despite the fact he looked like the only professional football player on the field for the Jets.

But this all comes back to the fact that McVay will try to unleash Goff in this matchup. And while the Browns haven’t been pretty on offense, they have enough talent at the skill positions to put a few points on the board.

Pick: Over 47

FULL GAME SIDE

Baker Mayfield needs to play his best game of the season if the Browns want to win this game. He’s been sacked eight times and thrown four picks already this season. And frankly, he just hasn’t looked very comfortable in the pocket at his point. To make matters worse for the Browns, they are the most heavily penalized team in the NFL, getting 27 flag thrown against them. That’s seven more than the next closest team.

If the Browns are unable to find some consistency on offense, and continues to lack disciple, they are going to be in real trouble against a talented Rams team, that despite scoring 57 points in two weeks is trying to really still get going.

Pick: Rams -3.5

 

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook

MLB picks and predictions for Opening Day

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It was a long and scary road, but we finally get MLB betting back on Thursday, July 23. Opening Day of the pandemic-shortened 60-game baseball schedule is headlined by a pair of matchups, with the New York Yankees visiting the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers rekindling their rivalry with the San Francisco Giants.

Like we do each MLB season (COVID-19 or not), we’ll be taking a swing at today’s baseball odds and giving our best MLB picks and predictions. Up first: Opening Day 2020.

MLB picks for today

New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals

Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was supposed to miss the start of the season back in the spring, but the delay to the 2020 campaign allowed the outfielder to heal up from broken ribs and return to his longball-launching self.

Judge looked great in New York’s warmup games, albeit for a limited number of at-bats. He went 3-for-7 with all three hits leaving the ballpark. And he wasn’t alone, with the Yankees’ other power bats providing plenty of pop around him in the order. He’ll get a chance to go yard again on Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Aaron Judge home run (+210)

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Giants are no strangers to Clayton Kershaw, who has long dominated the Dodgers’ divisional foes. In 49 career appearances against San Francisco, The Claw is 23-12 with a 1.74 ERA and has allowed just 0.71 hits per innings pitched in those starts.

The Giants don’t pose much of an offensive threat, averaging 8.22 hits per game in 2019. San Francisco has managed 45 total hits in its last eight starts against Kershaw – an average of 0.86 hits per inning faced. Given the Dodgers’ ace looked ready for work in his tune-up efforts, we could see him go seven innings or more on Thursday, panning out to a little over six hits for San Fran.

PREDICTION: Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)

Mookie Betts has reportedly landed a whale of a contract extension with the Dodgers after joining the ballclub this offseason via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. And what better way to lock down that deal than an impressive effort on Opening Day.

Betts recorded 313 total bases in 2019 (30th) and 353 in 2018 (fourth). He’s been swinging well in training sessions this offseason: in 27 at-bats during the spring/summer schedule, he has 13 total bases, including two doubles and a home run, while hitting leadoff during Summer Camp. We like that to continue into Opening Day.

PREDICTION: Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)

Top MLB consensus for today

Want to know who today’s biggest MLB betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top MLB consensus picks.

Opening Day betting card

  • Aaron Judge home run (+210)
  • Giants between 6-7 total hits (+235)
  • Mookie Betts two or more total bases (-182)