Getty Images

Betting an off-the-pace longshot in the Cotillion Stakes

Leave a comment

Win and you’re in. It sounds simple in theory. But the winning part will be easier said than done for the 11 fillies set to square off in Saturday’s $1 million, Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing.

The 1 1/16-mile race has been gaining prestige in recent years and now offers a “Win and You’re In” qualifying berth to the Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff on Nov. 2 at Santa Anita Park. With this bonus prize added to the rich purse, the Cotillion has attracted some of the most talented and accomplished three-year-old fillies in North America.

The 9-5 morning line favorite is understandably #8 Guarana. Conditioned by the three-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, Guarana is undefeated in three starts and showcased her budding brilliance with victories in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes and the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks during the spring and summer.

But could there be a crack in Guarana’s armor? She raced a bit greenly in the homestretch of the Coaching Club American Oaks, ducking out late in the race while leading clearly. And while she’s shown some versatility in terms of running style, winning the Acorn Stakes from a few lengths off a fast pace, two of her victories have come in gate-to-wire fashion.

Guarana’s front-running tendency could prove problematic in the Cotillion, a race that’s absolutely packed with speed horses. The Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner #1 Serengeti Empress knows of only one way to run – fast and furious right from the start – and the same goes for #11 Jaywalk, gate-to-wire winner of the 2018 Grade 1 Tito’s Handmade Vodka Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The speedy six-time graded stakes winner #10 Bellafina also tends to set or press the pace, while the longshots #5 Collegeville Girl#6 Horologist, and #9 Sweet Sami D have also shown a fondness for front-running tactics.

So who can take advantage of this presumably fast and contested pace? How about #3 Street Band? This daughter of Istan might not be a winning machine, but she’s quietly compiled an admirable record this year, highlight by blowout victories in the Grade 2 Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks and the Grade 3 Indiana Oaks.

Street Band’s Indiana Oaks triumph was eye-catching, since she exuded power and looked like a winner from start to finish, but I was just as impressed by her third-place finish in the 1 ¼-mile Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Aug. 17 at Saratoga. Racing over a sloppy, sealed track, Street Band did not receive the cleanest trip. Instead of enjoying a wide, unencumbered rally, she found herself racing between and behind horses for most of the race, a tricky position that forced her to wait in traffic on the far turn.

However, at the top of the stretch, Street Band gamely split horses and seized a brief lead. She remained thoroughly in contention until the eighth pole, after which she weakened slightly to finish third, but under the circumstances I thought Street Band ran a great race.

Street Band will be cutting back significantly in distance for the Cotillion, which should sharpen her finishing speed, and I’m also optimistic she’ll receive a perfect setup rallying into a fast pace. The best part? She’s 8-1 on the morning line, so if she wins, the payoff will be lucrative.

As a result, I don’t see any reason to get too complicated with wagering strategies. If you’re playing on a small budget, just bet Street Band to win and place. But if you have a little extra cash to spend and want to seek a truly memorable payoff, try keying her in the exacta and trifecta with Guarana, Serengeti Empress, Jaywalk, and the improving Horologist, a 15-1 shot with four consecutive victories to her credit.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 to win on #3 Street Band

What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 10th race, $5 to win on #3 Street Band

$5 to place on #3 Street Band

What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 10th race, $5 to place on #3 Street Band

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$10 to win on #3 Street Band

What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 10th race, $10 to win on #3 Street Band

$4 exacta box: 3,8 ($8)

What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 10th race, $5 exacta box 3,8

$1 trifecta: 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,6,11 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 10th race, $1 trifecta 3,8 with 3,8 with 1,6,11

$1 trifecta: 3,8 with 1,6,11 with 3,8 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Parx Racing, 10th race, $1 trifecta 3,8 with 1,6,11 with 3,8

The Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series continues on NBC Sports with the Cotillion Stakes from Parx Racing on September 21. Coverage begins at 5 p.m. ET on NBC.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

Leave a comment

Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

Getty Images
Leave a comment

MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook