It’s Friday and that means the countdown to NFL Sunday starts the second you get home, crack a beer/pour the wine (or both, we’re not your mother) and put those “weekend” sweats on. You might as well get in a few NFL bets while you’re relaxing.**video
We break down the best betting angles – and not just for spread and totals – presenting our NFL picks for team totals, props and derivatives in our daily NFL betting predictions.
EKELER EATS
The Los Angeles Chargers are already in Defcon 3 as their offensive talent is dropping like Donte Moncrief catches. Heading into Sunday’s cross-country tilt against the Detroit Lions (+2.5), the Bolts will be without their starting tight end and possibly their No. 2 receiver as well as their kicker. To make matters worse, top wide receiver Keenan Allen will likely draw Lions corner Darius Slay who PFF has ranked as the eighth-best CB heading into 2019.
Few offensive options + Austin Ekeler x (Philip Rivers) = Ek Eats
One week after scoring the game-winning touchdown versus the Colts in overtime, Ekeler will be riding high against the Lions who gave up 132 all-purpose yards to David Johnson, including six receptions on seven targets for 55 yards and a score. The Chargers have no choice but to get the ball into Ekeler’s mitts and the best and most productive way to do that is through the air.
We’re going to pass on Ekeler’s total receptions as it sits at 5.5 (+102) but hitting the Over on his receiving yards total of 45.5 (-114) and will also double down on his total yards (99.5) in what we see as a plus-matchup for the pint-sized back.
BEARISH ON BOYD
Are you getting behind the Andy Dalton MVP train at +15,000? Yeah, neither is anyone else. That’s not to say that the Red Rocket’s receiving corps isn’t talented but there won’t be many – if any – 400-yard passing games for the Bengals going forward.
Cincinnati receiver John Ross exploded for 150-plus yards on 12 targets while fellow WR Tyler Boyd managed 60 yards on 11 targets. With Boyd likely to draw the tougher assignment against San Francisco CB Richard Sherman on the outside and averaging just 6.92 air yards per depth of target last week, there’s value in his receiving total of 73.5 yards in Week 2.
The San Francisco defense was supposed to get lit up last week by Jameis Winston & Co. but instead scored two defensive touchdowns and held Bruce Arians’ offense to under 200 yards passing with three picks. Add in the fact that the Bengals allowed five sacks last week, and we are grabbing the Under 73.5 on Boyd’s receiving yards and can also get behind the Under on the Bengals’ team total of 23.5.
THE AIR UP THERE
Covers’ Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan wrote a great piece on the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos matchup and how the altitude affects teams early in the season as their conditioning isn’t in midseason form:
“Denver is the worst place to play early in the season, specifically in the Broncos’ home openers. Since 2000, Denver is an incredible 18-1 SU in home openers and has gone 11-4-4 ATS in those Mile High debuts (73 percent)”
Logan goes on to mention that the lack of oxygen could be detrimental to the Bears. Head coach Matt Nagy ran an offensive play every 26 seconds (ninth most) last week and pushed it even more in the second half with a play every 21 seconds (fourth most in 2H). If the air is a big factor like these trends possibly indicate, then the Bears may have to play slower which could alter the rhythm of the offense and impair the quality of play.
With the total already dropping a full-point to 40.5 after opening at 41.5, we are looking at Chicago’s team total for better value. We are ridin’ the Bears’ team total Under 21.5.
DOUBLING ON BIG D
On Wednesday we backed the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins Over 46.5. Today, we are going back to the nation’s capital and doing some things that are usually a betting no-no.
To make it clear, we are chasing a previous week’s performance AND laying 5.5 points on the road versus a divisional game. Usually, that’s a recipe for losing money, but Dallas’ new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has the Cowboys doing things they weren’t doing under former coordinator Scott Linehan. Moore called play-action on 48 percent of the plays, motioned in 73 percent and ran three-WR sets on 73 percent, combining for 494 total yards of offense.
Washington may also do a good job of shooting itself in the foot and giving the ball back to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Redskins had eight offensive penalties in Philadelphia (five holding, two false starts and a delay of game) and punted on five of their last seven possessions — scoring a TD and field goal.
Coming into the season, Washington was ranked near the bottom of the league. With its competitive performance in Philadelphia, people may have forgotten just how bad this team is. Take Dallas’ team total Over 26.5 and -5.5 for a double shot of Big D.
THE LEGS IN L.A.
Kickers are people too and our kicker props went 2-0 last week. For our third installment, we are taking a pair of kicking thoroughbreds in Los Angeles Rams’ Greg “the leg” Zuerlein and New Orleans Saints’ Wil “Gruff” Lutz.
Zuerlein is already raining threes from downtown this year after hitting from 56 and 49 yards last week while Lutz is still riding high after his remarkable game-winning and career-best 58-yarder on MNF.
In what looks like a beautiful forecast and optimal kicking conditions in Los Angeles, bang the Over 47.5 yards for the longest field goal.
