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Best Kentucky Derby Prop Bets

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When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there has been a very clear evolution in how intricate wagers can be, and how you can almost bet on any type of outcome on Derby day. We have really moved far beyond just picking a winner or a second-place finisher and moved into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, length of victory, as well as bets like how many Tweets President Donald Trump will make. Although I tend to find myself trying to rationalize and come up with quantifiable numbers to support my bet, who knows what will happen after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 before the actual race even begins?

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Here are three of my favorite proposition wagers for the Kentucky Derby:

How many lengths will be winner win by? Over 1.5 (-160), or Under 1.5 (+120)

The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than one length on 42 occasions. On the opposite end, the Derby has been won by four lengths or more 23 times.

In this year’s run for the roses there seems to be a lot of speed horses entered, or at least horses that tend to favor the front end. With a lot of vying for early positioning, a potential pace duel might ensue upfront. If that is the case, then it tends to benefit horses that are sitting just off the speed, and gives a fair shot for some of the deep closers to run down the frontrunners in the stretch.

The most likely case scenario for this bet to cash would be for faster fractions upfront and a bunched-up finish at the wire. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a lot of value in taking the underdog option for the margin of length victory.

Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)

The odds on this sure have changed since Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. Since 2002 there have been many near misses – six – with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I’ll Have Another, and California Chrome.

Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This trend seems to be really be factored in to the odds of this wager, and the recency bias of Justify capturing the bid last year.

With the Kentucky Derby field as wide open as it has been in years, and with no overwhelming favorite – cash on an easy proposition wager this weekend and bet the “No.”

The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)

This number seems to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Although there are two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse #15 Master Fencer will likely go off at higher odds than that at the call to the post.

Despite who performs or underperforms based on their odds, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner who records a DNF or has to pull up. This can often happen due to unforeseeable circumstances and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race is run smoothly, five of the 10 runners at 20-1 odds or higher will be breaking out of a gate with an even saddlecloth number. At +160, that seems like a lot of value to take a 50/50 proposition bet.

Good luck this weekend, and enjoy the “most exciting two minutes in sports!”

Special Kentucky Derby Prop Bet Bonus – Picks from BlackJack Fletcher

Will There Be a Triple Crown Winner? No (-700)

The horses in this field are simply too close in terms of talent in order for one to truly separate themselves. There are a lot of very talented horses in this year’s field, but not a truly transcendent one. Lay the juice on the no.

Over/Under 1.5 Lengths Margin of Victory in Kentucky Derby: Under (+120)

We have seen Game Winner in neck-and-neck battles in both the Rebel Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. I expect to see him in a close battle again.

Will Secretariat‘s Record Winning Time Be Broken? No (-7500)

There is a reason this prop is set at -7500. It is not going to happen. There have been a lot of unbelievable, once in a generation horses since Secretariat, and none have touched his time of 1:59.40. This is not the year it is going to happen.

Will There Be a Wire-to-Wire Winner? No (-1000)

With Omaha Beach scratched, the speed in this race is really just Maximum Security. I expect him to be on the lead early and fade as the field turns for home. I will lay the juice and say there is no wire-to-wire winner this Saturday.

What Post Position Will The Winner Come From? 16-20 (+130)

This bet gives you both Game Winner (#16) and Roadster (#17) which are two of the top three choices and you’re still getting plus money. This is easily the best value among these bets.

Canucks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions for Game 1

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Perhaps no team has been more fun to follow during the NHL playoffs than the Vancouver Canucks, and hockey bettors can still get the Canucks at +1,300 to hoist Lord Stanley’s cup. Vancouver is coming off a thrilling series win against the defending champion St. Louis Blues, but now a much more difficult challenge awaits. The Vegas Golden Knights are +350 favorites to win it all, and they’ve certainly looked the part while dropping only one playoff contest.

Game 1 of this series gets underway Sunday, so we’re here to bring you our NHL picks and predictions in this Western Conference semifinal showdown.

Vancouver Canucks vs Vegas Golden Knights betting preview

Starting Goalies

Canucks: Jacob Markstrom – playoffs – 7-3, 2.44 GAA, .929 SV% (season – 23-16, 2.75 GAA, .918 SV%)

Golden Knights: Robin Lehner – playoffs – 5-1, 2.44 GAA, .904 SV% (season – 19-10, 2.89, .920 SV%)

If this game was actually played in Las Vegas, then Markstrom could easily spend a few hours performing with Cirque du Soleil. The 30-year-old dazzled against Blues with an eye-opening array of acrobatic saves and an impressive 7-3 record. He’ll need to provide more of the same against a dangerous Vegas squad.

The Knights will likely roll with Robin Lehner, who has taken over the spot as Vegas’s starter in the crease—and rightfully so. Still, the Knights have the luxury of having Marc-Andre Fleury as their “backup.” The five-time All-Star matched an NHL record this season with his 14th consecutive playoff appearance.

Injuries

Vancouver: Tyler Myers D (out), Tyler Toffoli RW (out), Micheal Ferland LW (out), Josh Leivo LW (out)

Vegas: Tomas Nosek LW (out)

Betting Trend to Know

Canucks are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. Find the latest NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Golden Knights.

MONEYLINE PICK

The Canucks have been a force with the extra man during the postseason, converting 26.2% of their power plays. While the Knights are known for their offensive firepower, it’s their stingy defense that allows them to suffocate opponents—as evidenced by an 86.4% penalty kill during their playoff run. Vancouver is the only team in the league to never beat Vegas in regulation, going 0-11 all time. That’s something I just can’t ignore.

PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-175)

OVER/UNDER PICK

Each team is filled with loads of offensive talent. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller have combined for 11 goals thus far. Elias Pettersson has racked up 13 points, tied with Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

The Knights can match Vancouver’s scorers, but they’re more balanced—Shea Theodore, Alex Tuch and Mark Stone have each lit the lamp four times during the postseason. The difference is on defense, where Vancouver has allowed the most high-danger chances of all remaining playoff teams.

PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-110)

PROP PICK

Though I like Vegas to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canucks kept it close and continued their offensive success. I’ll take a flyer on Vancouver scoring at least three goals.

PREDICTION: Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)

Canucks vs Golden Knights Betting Card

  • Vegas ML (-175)
  • Over 5.5 (-110)
  • Canucks total goals Over 2.5 (-100)
NHL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NHL Canucks vs Golden Knights picks, you could win $104.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Verlander injury shuffles Astros’ MLB futures odds

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MLB betting got a shake-up Sunday afternoon, specifically on World Series odds and AL pennant odds, with news that Astros star pitcher Justin Verlander could miss the rest of the season – or at least a significant chunk of it – with an arm injury.

Initial reports suggested Verlander had an elbow ailment, but both he and manager Dusty Baker quickly denied that. Baker called it a forearm strain and said that Verlander would be re-evaluated in “a couple of weeks.” The reigning AL Cy Young winner pitched a solid six innings in an 8-2 Opening Day rout of the Seattle Mariners on Friday.

Verlander’s injury led oddsmakers to shuffle futures book odds on the defending AL champions. Covers checked in on the MLB odds moves with a couple of Las Vegas sportsbooks.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ World Series odds?

At CG Technology books, risk analyst Rich Zanco said the Astros quickly moved from +1,200 to +1,800 in World Series futures. The SuperBook at Westgate also had Houston pegged +1,200 prior to Sunday’s news and initially went to +1,600, then dialed it a little further to +1,800.

However, there were apparently buyers on the Astros at that point, prompting the SuperBook to reel the price in to +1,400.

How does Verlander’s injury affect Astros’ American League odds?

In AL pennant futures, the Astros initially moved from +600 to +800 at The SuperBook, then ticked back to +700.

World Series odds

Team Odds to win
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros +600
Atlanta Braves +1,600
Minnesota Twins +1,600
Tampa Bay Rays +1,800
Washington Nationals +2,000
Cleveland Indians +2,000
New York Mets +2,000
Chicago Cubs +2,000
Oakland Athletics +2,000
St. Louis Cardinals +2,500
Cincinnati Reds +2,500
San Diego Padres +2,500
Philadelphia Phillies +3,000
Chicago White Sox +3,000
Los Angeles Angels +3,000
Milwaukee Brewers +4,000
Boston Red Sox +5,000
Arizona Diamondbacks +6,000
Colorado Rockies +8,000
Toronto Blue Jays +10,000
Texas Rangers +10,000
Pittsburgh Pirates +20,000
Detroit Tigers +20,000
San Francisco Giants +30,000
Seattle Mariners +30,000
Miami Marlins +30,000
Baltimore Orioles +30,000
Kansas City Royals +30,000

Odds courtesy The SuperBook