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Premier League odds: Man City, Tottenham among Matchday 25 favorites

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Calling this a top-four matchup gilds the lily, since Manchester City and Arsenal have disparate trends that have moved value away from the moneyline.

Manchester City is a -315 home favorite with Arsenal coming back at +800, while the draw pays +500 on the three-way moneyline with a 3.5-goal total on the Premier League odds for their Sunday matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The match is under the spotlight since Manchester City is coming off a shock defeat at Newcastle United midweek, but that looks like an anomaly compared to longer-term trends. Man City has won 12 of its last 13 home matches and has also won by at least two goals in four consecutive matches (all competitions) against Arsenal. The Gunners are also winless in five away matches.

The fluidity of Man City’s attack and Arsenal’s defensive issues make OVER 3.5 goals (-115) a percentage play, and the more adventurous may find value taking OVER 3.5 (+220) on City’s goal total. Man City win and yes (+120) also has some value in both teams to score props. Sergio Aguero (+330 first scorer, -135 anytime) should feature for City.

Tottenham Hotspur (-240) should face some resistance against Newcastle United (+800, draw +350) when they meet on Saturday. The fact there have been OVER 2.5 goals scored in six of the Spurs’ last seven games is a good indicator that they can push through against an opponent that defends deep and looks to seize on mistakes. Yes/Over 2.5 (+165) and Tottenham win/Yes (+240) offer value in both teams to score props, while Heung-Min Son (+300 first scorer, +125 anytime) is the Spurs’ best bet to score.

Chelsea (-550), coming off an humbling loss, has some bounce-back fodder in the form of Huddersfield Town  (+1500, draw +600), which has lost 10 of its last 11 matches and failed to score in its last three. The best means to find value on Chelsea, which might have Olivier Giroud (+330 first scorer, -110 anytime) draw in at forward, is probably in correct score group props, either Chelsea 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 (+275) or the chancier Either Team 3-0 (+600).

Cardiff City (+220) draws a Bournemouth (+135, draw +250) club that is flush from trouncing Chelsea 4-0 on Wednesday, albeit at home. Cardiff City has won or drawn five of its last six home matches in all competitions, while Bournemouth has lost six away matches in a row whilst conceding at least two goals in each game. If one believes the Cherries’ form is an override on their road struggles, then Bournemouth win/yes (+375) may be the play in both teams to score props

Leicester City (+275) and Manchester United  (+110, draw +240), who meet in a Sunday  matchup, have gone OVER 2.5 goals in five of their last six games at King Power Stadium. Leicester City and Jamie Vardy (+500 first scorer, +150 anytime) should have an attacking mindset, and Tie / Yes (+350) in both teams to score props offers greater odds than backing the Foxes for the upset.

And West Ham United (+650) is home to Liverpool (-265, draw +425) in a Monday matchup. Liverpool has scored four goals in each of its last four matches against West Ham, making Yes/Over 2.5 (+110) and the over (-120) on the 3.0-goals total seems very attainable.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

EPL Matchweek Odds: Liverpool favored over Manchester United

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The twist scenario in this weekend’s derby is that the pressure is on the visiting, first-place Liverpool – which could make Manchester United the value play.

Liverpool is the +135 away favorite on the Premier League odds with host Manchester United coming back at +205, while the draw is offering +250 and there is a 2.5-goal total for Sunday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

This is first-place Liverpool’s game in hand over second-place Manchester City; while the Reds are undefeated in 26 of their last 27 away matches, they are coming off a desultory 0-0 draw against Germany’s Bayern Munich this week in Champions League play. Manchester United’s new-found confidence attributed to caretaker manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is borne out by some strong trends, which include scoring at least two goals in six consecutive matches, while also winning eight of their last nine in the league.

Confidence in Manchester United, which is led by midfield magician Paul Pogba, could be tempered somewhat if first-choice starters Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial are ruled out of action. Liverpool would seem like a safe bet to continue its skein of scoring in every away game in the league this season, even though Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah have not been capitalizing at a high rate of late.

Cardiff City (+215) and Watford (+140, draw +230) meet in a Friday EPL matchup with a strong OVER trend, as 10 of their last 11 meetings have had more than two goals. With Cardiff refreshed by a bye week and Watford being without suspended left back Jose Holebas, alternate totals such as OVER 3.5 (+245) should be considered.

West Ham United (-115) hosts Fulham (+325, draw +295), which has been a feeble away team that has lost 10 of its last 11 away games in the league, while also trailing at halftime in seven of its last eight away games. West Ham’s Marko Arnautovic (+333 first scorer, EVEN anytime) should have ample opportunity to score. In correct score group props, West Ham United 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 (+450) is a high-value, if chancier, play.

Burnley (+425) takes dubious trends against Tottenham Hotspur (-145, draw +270) into a Saturday matchup. Tottenham has kept a clean sheet in the last three meetings and is undefeated in the past nine. Burnley is a tough out at home, and Tottenham win / yes (+250) and yes / over 2.5 (+125) both offer value in both teams to score prop betting.

Bournemouth (+180) and Wolverhampton (+160, draw +235) is the tautest three-way moneyline of the week. The slight home underdog Cherries are an attacking team at home and five of the Wolves’ last six away matches have gone OVER 2.5 goals, so both teams to score props are worth poring over, and Either Team 2-1 (+350) has potential in the correct score group props.

And Leicester City (+120) hosts Crystal Palace (+250, draw +235) dragging a three-match home losing streak, as well as a three-match goalless streak against the visiting Eagles.

The head-to-head trend makes Crystal Palace the percentage play on the double chance (-140 for a win or draw), but there is potential for offense and Leicester could get it from winger Demarai Gray (+900 first scorer, +330 anytime), with Jamie Vardy (+350 first scorer, +120 anytime) being the usual suspect.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Red Sox, Yankees share top of 2019 World Series odds board

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With Major League Baseball so split into the win-now and win-later camps, it lends itself to wondering whether the grand old game will see it its first repeat champion in almost two decades.

The reigning Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees are each listed at +600 on the 2019 World Series odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. After the AL East’s two behemoths, the top of the board also includes the Houston Astros (+800)  and Los Angeles Dodgers (+800).

No team has repeated since the 1998-2000 Yankees won three World Series in a row. But the Red Sox, led by reigning MVP Mookie Betts, are coming off a dominant 108-win season where they scored 876 runs. Boston also has proven pitching depth.

The current Yankees should also be formidable at bat and on the mound, particularly with a bullpen of Dellin Bettances, Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman and Adam Ottavino that could be lights-out in the postseason. Whoever finishes first in the AL East – keep in mind that the last four World Series champions have been either a No. 1 or No. 2 playoff seed in their league – will rate an excellent chance of being the favorite in October.

The Astros and the Dodgers rate the relatively short odds. However, the respective AL West and NL West champs face questions about their pitching – Houston bid adieu to Dallas Keuchel, whereas Los Angeles is wondering how much velocity Clayton Kershaw will recover after three consecutive years of battling injuries – that beg taking a wait-and-see approach.

Recent league MVP Bryce Harper is still unsigned and the team that the slugging outfielder has been most linked to, the Philadelphia Phillies (+1400), presents excellent value farther down the board, including on the season win totals at sportsbooks.

The most tightly contested division is expected to be the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs (+1400), St. Louis Cardinals (+1400) and Milwaukee Brewers (+1600). Of those three, the Cardinals, who added slugging first baseman Paul Goldschmidt over the winter, might be the most undervalued.

The Atlanta Braves (+1600), Cleveland Indians (+1600) and Washington Nationals (+1600) are all recent playoff teams. Atlanta probably has the most upside of those teams by virtue of having a young corps, and a longshot play on a team building toward its peak is always better than taking a team past its best-before date.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.