Calling this a top-four matchup gilds the lily, since Manchester City and Arsenal have disparate trends that have moved value away from the moneyline.
Manchester City is a -315 home favorite with Arsenal coming back at +800, while the draw pays +500 on the three-way moneyline with a 3.5-goal total on the Premier League odds for their Sunday matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
The match is under the spotlight since Manchester City is coming off a shock defeat at Newcastle United midweek, but that looks like an anomaly compared to longer-term trends. Man City has won 12 of its last 13 home matches and has also won by at least two goals in four consecutive matches (all competitions) against Arsenal. The Gunners are also winless in five away matches.
The fluidity of Man City’s attack and Arsenal’s defensive issues make OVER 3.5 goals (-115) a percentage play, and the more adventurous may find value taking OVER 3.5 (+220) on City’s goal total. Man City win and yes (+120) also has some value in both teams to score props. Sergio Aguero (+330 first scorer, -135 anytime) should feature for City.
Tottenham Hotspur (-240) should face some resistance against Newcastle United (+800, draw +350) when they meet on Saturday. The fact there have been OVER 2.5 goals scored in six of the Spurs’ last seven games is a good indicator that they can push through against an opponent that defends deep and looks to seize on mistakes. Yes/Over 2.5 (+165) and Tottenham win/Yes (+240) offer value in both teams to score props, while Heung-Min Son (+300 first scorer, +125 anytime) is the Spurs’ best bet to score.
Chelsea (-550), coming off an humbling loss, has some bounce-back fodder in the form of Huddersfield Town (+1500, draw +600), which has lost 10 of its last 11 matches and failed to score in its last three. The best means to find value on Chelsea, which might have Olivier Giroud (+330 first scorer, -110 anytime) draw in at forward, is probably in correct score group props, either Chelsea 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 (+275) or the chancier Either Team 3-0 (+600).
Cardiff City (+220) draws a Bournemouth (+135, draw +250) club that is flush from trouncing Chelsea 4-0 on Wednesday, albeit at home. Cardiff City has won or drawn five of its last six home matches in all competitions, while Bournemouth has lost six away matches in a row whilst conceding at least two goals in each game. If one believes the Cherries’ form is an override on their road struggles, then Bournemouth win/yes (+375) may be the play in both teams to score props
Leicester City (+275) and Manchester United (+110, draw +240), who meet in a Sunday matchup, have gone OVER 2.5 goals in five of their last six games at King Power Stadium. Leicester City and Jamie Vardy (+500 first scorer, +150 anytime) should have an attacking mindset, and Tie / Yes (+350) in both teams to score props offers greater odds than backing the Foxes for the upset.
And West Ham United (+650) is home to Liverpool (-265, draw +425) in a Monday matchup. Liverpool has scored four goals in each of its last four matches against West Ham, making Yes/Over 2.5 (+110) and the over (-120) on the 3.0-goals total seems very attainable.
For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.