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Premier League odds: Man City, Tottenham among Matchday 25 favorites

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Calling this a top-four matchup gilds the lily, since Manchester City and Arsenal have disparate trends that have moved value away from the moneyline.

Manchester City is a -315 home favorite with Arsenal coming back at +800, while the draw pays +500 on the three-way moneyline with a 3.5-goal total on the Premier League odds for their Sunday matchup at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The match is under the spotlight since Manchester City is coming off a shock defeat at Newcastle United midweek, but that looks like an anomaly compared to longer-term trends. Man City has won 12 of its last 13 home matches and has also won by at least two goals in four consecutive matches (all competitions) against Arsenal. The Gunners are also winless in five away matches.

The fluidity of Man City’s attack and Arsenal’s defensive issues make OVER 3.5 goals (-115) a percentage play, and the more adventurous may find value taking OVER 3.5 (+220) on City’s goal total. Man City win and yes (+120) also has some value in both teams to score props. Sergio Aguero (+330 first scorer, -135 anytime) should feature for City.

Tottenham Hotspur (-240) should face some resistance against Newcastle United (+800, draw +350) when they meet on Saturday. The fact there have been OVER 2.5 goals scored in six of the Spurs’ last seven games is a good indicator that they can push through against an opponent that defends deep and looks to seize on mistakes. Yes/Over 2.5 (+165) and Tottenham win/Yes (+240) offer value in both teams to score props, while Heung-Min Son (+300 first scorer, +125 anytime) is the Spurs’ best bet to score.

Chelsea (-550), coming off an humbling loss, has some bounce-back fodder in the form of Huddersfield Town  (+1500, draw +600), which has lost 10 of its last 11 matches and failed to score in its last three. The best means to find value on Chelsea, which might have Olivier Giroud (+330 first scorer, -110 anytime) draw in at forward, is probably in correct score group props, either Chelsea 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 (+275) or the chancier Either Team 3-0 (+600).

Cardiff City (+220) draws a Bournemouth (+135, draw +250) club that is flush from trouncing Chelsea 4-0 on Wednesday, albeit at home. Cardiff City has won or drawn five of its last six home matches in all competitions, while Bournemouth has lost six away matches in a row whilst conceding at least two goals in each game. If one believes the Cherries’ form is an override on their road struggles, then Bournemouth win/yes (+375) may be the play in both teams to score props

Leicester City (+275) and Manchester United  (+110, draw +240), who meet in a Sunday  matchup, have gone OVER 2.5 goals in five of their last six games at King Power Stadium. Leicester City and Jamie Vardy (+500 first scorer, +150 anytime) should have an attacking mindset, and Tie / Yes (+350) in both teams to score props offers greater odds than backing the Foxes for the upset.

And West Ham United (+650) is home to Liverpool (-265, draw +425) in a Monday matchup. Liverpool has scored four goals in each of its last four matches against West Ham, making Yes/Over 2.5 (+110) and the over (-120) on the 3.0-goals total seems very attainable.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Daytona 500 Odds: Betting Preview for Great American Race

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Winning the Great American Race once might generate confidence with bettors, but recent history shows that it means little once the race begins.

Joey Logano, one of the eight past champions in the field, is the +800 co-favorite on the Daytona 500 odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Brad Keselowski (+800) and Kevin Harvick (+850) join Logano at the top of the board.

The favorites for the NASCAR Cup season opener at Daytona International Speedway also include Kyle Busch (+1200), who won in 2017, as well as Ryan Blaney (+1100), Clint Bowyer (+1100), Chase Elliott (+1100) and Denny Hamlin (+1100).

A chalk pick with Logano, who will start fourth, is justifiable, but the wide-open nature of motorsports means the value is farther down on the board and higher in the grid. Ten of the last 13 champions, including the last four, have been first-time winners. Five of the last six winners have started eighth or higher on the grid.

Picking Keselowski would mean being comfortable with a racer who has failed to finish in the last four runnings at Daytona International Speedway. Elliott is a big name bettors probably should fade, based on the fact he has also fared poorly on this track. Likewise, Harvick has failed to finish in four of his last five runnings on the track, while Kyle Busch has finished outside of the top five in each of the last two years.

Aric Almirola (+1100), who had the lead in the 2018 race until he crashed with a mile to go, still holds of a lot of value as bettors try to gauge whether he has put that misfortune in this showcase event behind him or it becomes some sort of mental millstone. Jimmie Johnson (+1800), who won the rain-shortened Advance Auto Parts Clash last Sunday, is one former champion who might worth taking a flier on.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+1500) has fared well in his recent restrictor-plate races and would fit the first-time winner trend. A darkhorse whose NASCAR odds for Sunday have dropped without killing his value, though, is Daniel Suarez (+2200), who ran well during the aforementioned Clash before getting stuck behind a wreck and ultimately finishing 10th.

It is tough enough to win Daytona twice in a lifetime, let alone twice in a row, so defending champion Austin Dillon (+3000) is well down the board at online sports betting sites. No driver has won the race twice in a row since Sterling Marlin in 1994 and 1995.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.

Smith Jr., Curry, Team LeBron favorites on All-Star weekend NBA odds

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Overdoing it in the Slam Dunk Contest last year has given Dennis Smith Jr.’s odds a little more vertical, so to speak, entering NBA All-Star weekend.

Smith is the +200 favorite on the Slam Dunk Contest odds for Saturday in Charlotte at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The New York Knicks point guard was the favorite in the 2018 edition but a miss in the first round brought him back to earth, helping the Utah Jazz’s Donovan Mitchell – who’s not competing this time around – win the title.

The aesthetics of the dunk contest tend to favor players around the size of the six-foot-three Smith, who may have learned some lessons about the procedure of the event.

Miles Bridges (+225) of the host Charlotte Hornets is an explosive leaper who has the hometown advantage. The Atlanta Hawks’ John Collins (+225), as the tallest player competing, might be at a judging disadvantage.

The Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry (+175) is the favorite on the Three-Point Contest odds, followed by defending champion Devin Booker (+450), Buddy Hield (+450), Seth Curry (+550), Kemba Walker (+900), Joe Harris (+900) and Damian Lillard (+900).

The fact that 10 players have won in the last 10 years highlights the randomness of the event. Beyond Stephen Curry, Booker offers excellent value in an event that is overdue for someone to win back-to-back, and Walker will be competing on his home floor, although no host-team player has won in the event’s 32-year history.

De’Aaron Fox (+250) has top odds in the Skills Challenge at betting sites, followed by Luka Doncic (+325), Trae Young (+375), Mike Conley (+550), Nikola Jokic (+600), Jayson Tatum (+600) and Kyle Kuzma (+700). International players comprise four of the last nine winners and Doncic might offer more upside than the favored Fox. The last three winners of this timed event have all been six-six or taller, so a skilled big such as the six-nine Kuzma poses a darkhorse threat.

As for the game on Sunday, Team LeBron is a 6-point betting favorite against Team Giannis. The higher value resides in the game MVP props, where superlative scorer Kevin Durant (+600) is co-favorite to win MVP with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Team LeBron is loaded with three-point threats such as Durant, James himself (+650), James Harden (+1000), Klay Thompson (+4000), Damian Lillard (+4000) and Bradley Beal (+4000). Harden’s historic streak of 30-point games makes him an intriguing pick.

On the Team Giannis side, the Greek Freak himself would seem to pose the best chance; the game MVP always comes from the winning side and he would stand to play a major role in the betting-line underdog winning on these NBA odds.

For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or Spotify or listen to it at OddsShark.libsyn.com.